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> it is _ALL_ about kicking the US out of the west Pacific. Hardly. It is all about Xi having declared that taking Taiwan by... I think it was 2049, but could

> it is _ALL_ about kicking the US out of the west Pacific. Hardly. It is all about Xi having declared that taking Taiwan by... I think it was 2049, but could be misremembering. Anyway, Xi made that a test of the legitimacy of the CCP, in some very public statements. So, no, it's not about kicking the US out of the west Pacific. It's about Taiwan, and it's because if they don't, the CCP is illegitimate, by Xi's own word.

KPGv2 1mo ago
Xi will not be in power in 2049 because he will be dead. He'd be 96yo.
- brookst 1mo ago
  Countries often set goals beyond the lifetimes of the current leaders.
  - balarjin 1mo ago
    The point is that the goal is far enough into the future that the person making it can't be held accountable for failing to meet it. If Xi had said "the CCP is illegitimate unless it takes Taiwan by 2025", he would be at real risk of being replaced in 2026. Anyone who opposed him (or just wanted power) would have a perfect reason to replace him. When Xi makes a goal with a "deadline" he won't live to see, he takes no risk of personally failing to meet the goal. If his successor misses the deadline, he can say things changed, Xi failed to consider factors X,Y,Z, etc.
    - wolvoleo 1mo ago
      > If his successor misses the deadline, he can say things changed, Xi failed to consider factors X,Y,Z, etc. That's not how the CCP operates though. They are not a country where the puppets matter so much, like in most of the western countries. You would very very rarely see a leader being critical of their predecessor even if they are changing policies (which Xi Jinping definitely did). Because they are the same party and thus they are attacking themselves. The party is really more important than whoever happens to be at the top. The party is always right. Even when the party is wrong. Which it is not because it's always right. No, if this promise disappears it will be silently. Never to be mentioned again, or else. It just never happened.
nl 1mo ago
By 2023 Xi ordered the Chinese military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. But that doesn't mean they plan to invade Taiwan by then. One common reading of it is that it was a plan to build up the military to that state with a definite goal date (in the same way the "600 ship navy" plan had a goal date). https://www.reuters.com/world/cia-chief-says-chinas-xi-little-sobered-by-ukraine-war-2023-02-02/ https://www.reuters.com/world/cia-chief-says-chinas-xi-littl...

KPGv2 1mo ago

Xi will not be in power in 2049 because he will be dead. He'd be 96yo.

brookst 1mo ago
Countries often set goals beyond the lifetimes of the current leaders.
- balarjin 1mo ago
  The point is that the goal is far enough into the future that the person making it can't be held accountable for failing to meet it. If Xi had said "the CCP is illegitimate unless it takes Taiwan by 2025", he would be at real risk of being replaced in 2026. Anyone who opposed him (or just wanted power) would have a perfect reason to replace him. When Xi makes a goal with a "deadline" he won't live to see, he takes no risk of personally failing to meet the goal. If his successor misses the deadline, he can say things changed, Xi failed to consider factors X,Y,Z, etc.
  - wolvoleo 1mo ago
    > If his successor misses the deadline, he can say things changed, Xi failed to consider factors X,Y,Z, etc. That's not how the CCP operates though. They are not a country where the puppets matter so much, like in most of the western countries. You would very very rarely see a leader being critical of their predecessor even if they are changing policies (which Xi Jinping definitely did). Because they are the same party and thus they are attacking themselves. The party is really more important than whoever happens to be at the top. The party is always right. Even when the party is wrong. Which it is not because it's always right. No, if this promise disappears it will be silently. Never to be mentioned again, or else. It just never happened.

nl 1mo ago

By 2023 Xi ordered the Chinese military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. But that doesn't mean they plan to invade Taiwan by then. One common reading of it is that it was a plan to build up the military to that state with a definite goal date (in the same way the "600 ship navy" plan had a goal date). https://www.reuters.com/world/cia-chief-says-chinas-xi-little-sobered-by-ukraine-war-2023-02-02/ https://www.reuters.com/world/cia-chief-says-chinas-xi-littl...