Sorry, I was only using banks as an example. My attempt to state the general case here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4942341 https://news.ycombinator.c

Sorry, I was only using banks as an example. My attempt to state the general case here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4942341 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4942341 I think it is exactly a black swan issue. The markets punish companies which do not compete sufficiently effectively. Companies which plan for low-probability events are less effective in the medium term than companies which don't.