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One major reason why I disagree with the article. Social phenomena are impossible to fully compute as human beings do not just apply to comprehensible laws of p
by anythinggoes 14y ago
One major reason why I disagree with the article. Social phenomena are impossible to fully compute as human beings do not just apply to comprehensible laws of physics, but there is a whole different dynamic of behavioral and social factors involved that makes statistic modelling a great deal more complex. Unlike the author I also do not think that this problem can just be resolved with technical means, there will always be uncertainty about human behavior and thus Black Swans.
- mbesto 14y agoYa, this part irked me the most: "Traditional financial analysis, she said, is based on evaluating existing statistical data about past events. In her view, analysts can better anticipate market failures – like the financial crisis that began in 2008 – by recognizing precursors and warning signs, and factoring them into a systemic probabilistic analysis." So, let's say you do provide a systemic probabilistic analysis about the impending education crisis the US is about hit? Don't you think a government would be gnawing their hands off to get that type of statistical analysis? Personally, I don't think it systematically exists.