In hindsight you can of course always identify indicators for the coming catastrophe. Even a storm needs some build up. The problem is we can not see the indica

In hindsight you can of course always identify indicators for the coming catastrophe. Even a storm needs some build up. The problem is we can not see the indicators in time. Otherwise they would not be black swans, they would more be like the whale falling out of the sky in the Hitchhikers Guide To the Galaxy, that has formed spontaneously out of random particles.