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There's a Bayesian forecast from some folks at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine that's useful to see if the outbreak has reached peak size: ht
by croemer 1mo ago
There's a Bayesian forecast from some folks at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine that's useful to see if the outbreak has reached peak size: https://epiforecasts.io/BVDOutbreakSize/stable/analysis#Summary https://epiforecasts.io/BVDOutbreakSize/stable/analysis#Summ...
The last update finally had a growth rate confidence interval straggling 0, meaning the peak seems to be within reach: "The latest growth rate is estimated to be 30% -0.005–0.008"
There's a nice figure showing Rt over time: https://epiforecasts.io/BVDOutbreakSize/stable/analysis#Reproduction-number-over-time https://epiforecasts.io/BVDOutbreakSize/stable/analysis#Repr...
- croemer 1mo agoNewest run from 2026-08-25 shows Rt likely above 1 again unfortunately (percentages are confidence intervals): 30% 1.05–1.19, 60% 0.99–1.31, 90% 0.82–1.6. Daily growth rate: 30% 0.005–0.014, 60% -0.001–0.021, 90% -0.013–0.034 per day.