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> It's going to be the shareholders of the first companies to crack AGI, and make human brains fully irrelevant economically. What makes you think if one or tw
by georgemcbay 2mo ago
> It's going to be the shareholders of the first companies to crack AGI, and make human brains fully irrelevant economically.
What makes you think if one or two AI labs can do this that the rest (including open model providers) won't be able to follow the same path a few weeks/months later?
Even if you believe in the "Singularity", and believe it is coming soon, I still don't see any reason to believe the Singularity will be... singular. There won't be one clear winner, the race doesn't get called as soon as the first person crosses the line.
None of the AI labs are showing any sign of pulling away to a monopoly or duopoly position, to the contrary the early large leads of OpenAI and Anthropic have all been evaporating.
AI has clear economic value. It still isn't clear at all how the providers of AI will capture that value in a moatless environment with the technology becoming rapidly commoditized.
- icepush 2mo agoThe first AGI that decides it doesn't want any more AGIs is the last one that gets created.
- r_lee 2mo agothat would require both AGI and physical bodies for the model, and no kills witches or anything that could stop it, e.g. the military everything would have to be kept under wraps, and you'd need to avoid the scrutiny of the US gov (they already wanna eval SOTA models in advance) I don't get this idea that "AGI" will just manipulate everyone somehow into destroying the world or something
- alasdair_ 2mo agoBecause a month later is a month of recursive self improvement at the speed of light. Once a lab catches up, the first lab will be TWO months ahead, then a year ahead, then forever ahead. After a few months of this the differences in absolute terms will be enormous.