3 ms·

I am still recovering from a project where everything that could go wrong, did. People without experience coding in Python vibing Python code. People cosplaying

I am still recovering from a project where everything that could go wrong, did. People without experience coding in Python vibing Python code. People cosplaying software architects. People vibing specs, Jira tickets based on the code they vibed... architects telling devs to "upload the zip file into Claude and figure out what the code does" because there is no design, no spec, no requirements... madness.

5gff3 1mo ago
The reality is, a lot of economic activity is fake in the sense that it is highly-discretionary. And this will continue to go on and on and on. This means that this idea of large scale AI lay offs is complete delusion.
- polnoner 1mo ago
  I think it is because we haven't had a real recession now in a generation. There is all this accumulated, inefficient structure we are maintaining. The next recession will have a strong amount of economic autophagy because of the amount of structure to eat through. I suspect this is how automation materializes too at scale. It materializes in the leanness of companies on the other side of a recession. We are viewing LLMs as not producing this autophagy as proof of something not working. I don't think this is reality. I think it is related to this childish view of instantaneous market efficiency. A recession is what will perturb the system and start the automation chain reaction. Inside the current economic regime, automation is just a risk and a cost because the tools were derived inside this long expansive regime. Nothing much happens until the shock and regime switch. Then we never come back to this regime. I woke up everyday thinking how someday I will look back on today with such fond memories of being the good old days. The regime switching is going to be quite miserable.
seanclayton 1mo ago
Sounds like my job as well

3 ms·

I am still recovering from a project where everything that could go wrong, did. People without experience coding in Python vibing Python code. People cosplaying

by surfingdino 1mo ago

5gff3 1mo ago
The reality is, a lot of economic activity is fake in the sense that it is highly-discretionary. And this will continue to go on and on and on. This means that this idea of large scale AI lay offs is complete delusion.
- polnoner 1mo ago
  I think it is because we haven't had a real recession now in a generation. There is all this accumulated, inefficient structure we are maintaining. The next recession will have a strong amount of economic autophagy because of the amount of structure to eat through. I suspect this is how automation materializes too at scale. It materializes in the leanness of companies on the other side of a recession. We are viewing LLMs as not producing this autophagy as proof of something not working. I don't think this is reality. I think it is related to this childish view of instantaneous market efficiency. A recession is what will perturb the system and start the automation chain reaction. Inside the current economic regime, automation is just a risk and a cost because the tools were derived inside this long expansive regime. Nothing much happens until the shock and regime switch. Then we never come back to this regime. I woke up everyday thinking how someday I will look back on today with such fond memories of being the good old days. The regime switching is going to be quite miserable.
seanclayton 1mo ago
Sounds like my job as well