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I'm not sure how old you are, but shortly after Obama took office in 2009 there was quite a bit of reporting claiming that the Bush administration had been so d

by Merad 1mo ago

I'm not sure how old you are, but shortly after Obama took office in 2009 there was quite a bit of reporting claiming that the Bush administration had been so disastrous and young people had been so thoroughly poisoned by Republican policies, that it would likely be a generation before the Republicans had the chance to win the presidency again. Remember, Bush left office in the depths of the Great Recession. Instead, it took less than 8 years for us to get MAGA.

cco 1mo ago
In 2024 Trump got some of the youth vote, still not a majority. Trump never won Gen X (or at least Millennial) and below. So the prediction sounds right? The Republicans have burnt the youth vote pretty badly and have never really recovered.
- jcranmer 1mo ago
  In the 2024 election, Trump's strongest margins appear to have been with Gen X, where he was roughly +10% over Harris, even stronger than his results among the Baby Boomers. (See, e.g. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/06/26/voting-patterns-in-the-2024-election/ https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/06/26/voting-patte... and https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/exit-polls https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/exit-polls. Annoyingly, the polls don't cleanly break down into generations; Gen X would be the ~44-60 crowd for that election.)
  - cco 1mo ago
    Thank you for the correction! Does seem a little bit unclear given those age buckets but definitely enough to walk back my previous claim.
BeetleB 1mo ago
I don't know how old you are, but the MAGA movement is an offshoot of the Tea Party movement which, although begun under Bush, became massively popular under Obama. Sure, lots of people were not happy with Bush dragging the country into two wars, but most Republicans remained Republicans, and the angst (based on facts or otherwise) against Obama is what made the Tea Party Movement so big. (Of course, there was the whole social media thing that became huge around the same time, but the design of social media doesn't favor one side over another...)

by Merad 1mo ago

cco 1mo ago

In 2024 Trump got some of the youth vote, still not a majority. Trump never won Gen X (or at least Millennial) and below. So the prediction sounds right? The Republicans have burnt the youth vote pretty badly and have never really recovered.

jcranmer 1mo ago
In the 2024 election, Trump's strongest margins appear to have been with Gen X, where he was roughly +10% over Harris, even stronger than his results among the Baby Boomers. (See, e.g. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/06/26/voting-patterns-in-the-2024-election/ https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/06/26/voting-patte... and https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/exit-polls https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/exit-polls. Annoyingly, the polls don't cleanly break down into generations; Gen X would be the ~44-60 crowd for that election.)
- cco 1mo ago
  Thank you for the correction! Does seem a little bit unclear given those age buckets but definitely enough to walk back my previous claim.

BeetleB 1mo ago

I don't know how old you are, but the MAGA movement is an offshoot of the Tea Party movement which, although begun under Bush, became massively popular under Obama. Sure, lots of people were not happy with Bush dragging the country into two wars, but most Republicans remained Republicans, and the angst (based on facts or otherwise) against Obama is what made the Tea Party Movement so big. (Of course, there was the whole social media thing that became huge around the same time, but the design of social media doesn't favor one side over another...)