2 ms·

I said it [1][2] when OpenAI was supposed to go public "next week" and I'll say it again today: neither Antropic nor OpenAI are going public in the coming few y

I said it [1][2] when OpenAI was supposed to go public "next week" and I'll say it again today: neither Antropic nor OpenAI are going public in the coming few years. The moment they go public is the moment the music stops and everyone who still has their head in the sand realizes that they now can't deny there's no money to make in selling AI models, only money to lose. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48211272 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48211272 [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48358945 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48358945

dofm 1mo ago
I rather think OpenAI will never get there. I think the AI industry desperately needs one of the two to get to IPO for its own sense of identity, though; the morale boost and the presumption of validation are crucial at this point. I think it’s possible that the remaining power of the delusion gets Anthropic to IPO.
- 4fffaa 1mo ago
  Lol nobody's buying the BS. It is all about greater fool theory now. The substance OAI and Anthropic had is gone.
danilocesar 1mo ago
++ I don't know if they will never go public,but their business is clearly not profitable as it is today. I'm a heavy user but the moment they stop subsidizing I will pick something else because I know how damn expensive it actually is (my usage is ~4k usd/month, but paying 200 in their max plan). I guess lot of people will do the same.
- 4fffaa 1mo ago
  The funny thing is the govt would prob prefer all the resources were concentrated (e.g. across MSFT and Alphabet) rather than diversified across many firms in a head to head fight vs China. So therefore theres no argument to keep anthropic and OAI afloat if they cannot do so on their own.
nswizzle31 1mo ago
Anthropic is absolutely going public now that Leopold got taken for a ride and the market is back at its very tip top. There is no other option at this point. It is imminent. What you get wrong is who the music stops for. It stops for us (retail). They dump their bags and consolidate into a more manageable business in the long run. S&P drops 10% and life moves on in a few years. I think you’re right about OpenAI though. They got outplayed at every step and wont go public.
- mimischi 1mo ago
  Care to explain how this relates to Leopold? I know they hold some stake in Anthropic, but I’m not proficient enough in the topic to jump to the conclusion you’re alluding to.
  - nswizzle31 1mo ago
    Sure, a month ago the market was roaring and Anthropic first floated going public. Then suddenly all AI-related stocks drop 30%+ over a week and people claimed the jig was up. No chance for Anthropic IPO. Turns out it was mainly just caused by one hedge fund (Citadel) targeting another hedge fund (Leopold). He got liquidated and Citadel picked up his portfolio for pennies. Market subsequently soared to even higher highs in the last few weeks and, poof, Anthropic is going public again. That’s the narrative anyways - the big drop was just Leopold getting liquidated and not a larger market downturn.
downrightmike 1mo ago
It all implodes once they can't afford to lock up all the RAM and SSD, and/or when the reduced resources environment(private/China) models get good enough to negate frontier lead / become equivalent (almost there)

dofm 1mo ago

I rather think OpenAI will never get there. I think the AI industry desperately needs one of the two to get to IPO for its own sense of identity, though; the morale boost and the presumption of validation are crucial at this point. I think it’s possible that the remaining power of the delusion gets Anthropic to IPO.

4fffaa 1mo ago
Lol nobody's buying the BS. It is all about greater fool theory now. The substance OAI and Anthropic had is gone.

danilocesar 1mo ago

++ I don't know if they will never go public,but their business is clearly not profitable as it is today. I'm a heavy user but the moment they stop subsidizing I will pick something else because I know how damn expensive it actually is (my usage is ~4k usd/month, but paying 200 in their max plan). I guess lot of people will do the same.

4fffaa 1mo ago
The funny thing is the govt would prob prefer all the resources were concentrated (e.g. across MSFT and Alphabet) rather than diversified across many firms in a head to head fight vs China. So therefore theres no argument to keep anthropic and OAI afloat if they cannot do so on their own.

nswizzle31 1mo ago

Anthropic is absolutely going public now that Leopold got taken for a ride and the market is back at its very tip top. There is no other option at this point. It is imminent. What you get wrong is who the music stops for. It stops for us (retail). They dump their bags and consolidate into a more manageable business in the long run. S&P drops 10% and life moves on in a few years. I think you’re right about OpenAI though. They got outplayed at every step and wont go public.

mimischi 1mo ago
Care to explain how this relates to Leopold? I know they hold some stake in Anthropic, but I’m not proficient enough in the topic to jump to the conclusion you’re alluding to.
- nswizzle31 1mo ago
  Sure, a month ago the market was roaring and Anthropic first floated going public. Then suddenly all AI-related stocks drop 30%+ over a week and people claimed the jig was up. No chance for Anthropic IPO. Turns out it was mainly just caused by one hedge fund (Citadel) targeting another hedge fund (Leopold). He got liquidated and Citadel picked up his portfolio for pennies. Market subsequently soared to even higher highs in the last few weeks and, poof, Anthropic is going public again. That’s the narrative anyways - the big drop was just Leopold getting liquidated and not a larger market downturn.

downrightmike 1mo ago

It all implodes once they can't afford to lock up all the RAM and SSD, and/or when the reduced resources environment(private/China) models get good enough to negate frontier lead / become equivalent (almost there)