2 ms·

This ignores two facts. One, US has been the largest buyer of imported goods. As much as people think turning away is difficult and needs planning. Two, turni

This ignores two facts. One, US has been the largest buyer of imported goods. As much as people think turning away is difficult and needs planning. Two, turning away requires time and planning. Supply chain isn't built in one day. People need time for that. In the short term - like next 3-4 years - it is going to look like countries caved. But in the long term Liberation Day will be remembered as one of the days which put a nail into the American exceptionalism.

8note 1mo ago
i think canada has found that its been less difficult than we thought it would be ultimately the US is buying stuff, but its the stuff thats actually valuable and not the USD you get from it. its even easier to move when you cant even buy oil from the gulf anymore, whether in USD or otherwise. the supply chain problem arrived in trump 1's covid disaster, and hasnt exactly been solved for getting stuff to the US again
- ColdStream 1mo ago
  I was very impressed at the pace at which Canadians got behind the move away from US goods. Turns out threatening to annex a country and NOT having those making the threats get punished/thrown out does that. It shows a significant enough part of the US would support the move. That portion might only be 10-30% (who knows exactly) but it is enough that it cannot be ignored and it will keep coming back. There are still more fundamental materials markets that will take years/decades to move away from but that is already happening.
ColdStream 1mo ago
Long term it is a very tough position for the US. They need to run a trade deficit to keep the power of the US dollar, if that goes so does a lot of their world power. More broadly however, the question that I think everyone should ponder on is, "If the US falls as the world super power, do you think the alternative will be better?" A huge part of the US's spending is on the military and that is used to stabilize global trade, that is so that the USD is still THE major currency. But recent moves looks like they are trying to keep that while also kicking out the struts that hold up the entire system. It is very illogical, maybe there is a bigger plan but somehow I don't think there is.
- bawolff 1mo ago
  > If the US falls as the world super power, do you think the alternative will be better? Perhaps not, but if you just accept every abuse thrown at you, pretty soon the USA will be just as tyrannical as China. Sometimes having the self-respect to stand up for yourself is more important than the costs. At the very least, if the US falls as a super power, it seems like we are heading to a tri-polar world (china, EU, USA), at least in the near to medium term. Its not like someone else is going to take over as the sole super power.
  - boredatoms 1mo ago
    The nuclear NPT is will see mass withdrawals if the US can’t/wont provide security
    - bawolff 1mo ago
      Its certainly something to worry about, but i think its far from certain. Nato countries will probably shift to france. The non-nato countries strongly in the us sphere of influence are probably the biggest wories (e.g. japan, south korea) but there aren't actually that many of them.
    - don_esteban 1mo ago
      There is no 'if' for 'the US can't/wont provide security'. Just look at the Gulf countries (or Ukraine, for that matter). The whole 'security' was by intimidation, there is no actual meat on that bone.
  - inigyou 1mo ago
    FYI the USA is already more tyrannical than China by most measures that aren't freedom of speech.
- jurgenburgen 1mo ago
  > More broadly however, the question that I think everyone should ponder on is, "If the US falls as the world super power, do you think the alternative will be better?" The US is already behaving the way we expected China would if they become the king of the hill. Pax Americana used to guarantee peace, prosperity and nuclear nonproliferation for the countries participating in it. Now we get threats of invasion, threats of being left to fend for our selves, cozying up to a country that is literally trying to conquer our neighbors. I don’t think it’s anymore a question of _if_, the old world is gone and not coming back.
beached_whale 1mo ago
Canada has been the largest buyer of US goods and services, limiting access to their markets where there are alternatives or they are luxuries can add up quickly. Even in the provinces that didn't outright ban US alcohol, the sales have gone down 55%. Alcohol is really easy though.
refurb 1mo ago
The US has the largest consumer market in the world. The next biggest is the EU which is only 50% the size of the US. If countries of the world decide to trade among themselves, their economies are going to be a lot smaller.
- inigyou 1mo ago
  That's basically because their currency is the world reserve currency, which makes them rich. Expect that to change soon.

8note 1mo ago

i think canada has found that its been less difficult than we thought it would be ultimately the US is buying stuff, but its the stuff thats actually valuable and not the USD you get from it. its even easier to move when you cant even buy oil from the gulf anymore, whether in USD or otherwise. the supply chain problem arrived in trump 1's covid disaster, and hasnt exactly been solved for getting stuff to the US again

ColdStream 1mo ago
I was very impressed at the pace at which Canadians got behind the move away from US goods. Turns out threatening to annex a country and NOT having those making the threats get punished/thrown out does that. It shows a significant enough part of the US would support the move. That portion might only be 10-30% (who knows exactly) but it is enough that it cannot be ignored and it will keep coming back. There are still more fundamental materials markets that will take years/decades to move away from but that is already happening.

ColdStream 1mo ago

Long term it is a very tough position for the US. They need to run a trade deficit to keep the power of the US dollar, if that goes so does a lot of their world power. More broadly however, the question that I think everyone should ponder on is, "If the US falls as the world super power, do you think the alternative will be better?" A huge part of the US's spending is on the military and that is used to stabilize global trade, that is so that the USD is still THE major currency. But recent moves looks like they are trying to keep that while also kicking out the struts that hold up the entire system. It is very illogical, maybe there is a bigger plan but somehow I don't think there is.

bawolff 1mo ago
> If the US falls as the world super power, do you think the alternative will be better? Perhaps not, but if you just accept every abuse thrown at you, pretty soon the USA will be just as tyrannical as China. Sometimes having the self-respect to stand up for yourself is more important than the costs. At the very least, if the US falls as a super power, it seems like we are heading to a tri-polar world (china, EU, USA), at least in the near to medium term. Its not like someone else is going to take over as the sole super power.
- boredatoms 1mo ago
  The nuclear NPT is will see mass withdrawals if the US can’t/wont provide security
  - bawolff 1mo ago
    Its certainly something to worry about, but i think its far from certain. Nato countries will probably shift to france. The non-nato countries strongly in the us sphere of influence are probably the biggest wories (e.g. japan, south korea) but there aren't actually that many of them.
  - don_esteban 1mo ago
    There is no 'if' for 'the US can't/wont provide security'. Just look at the Gulf countries (or Ukraine, for that matter). The whole 'security' was by intimidation, there is no actual meat on that bone.
- inigyou 1mo ago
  FYI the USA is already more tyrannical than China by most measures that aren't freedom of speech.
jurgenburgen 1mo ago
> More broadly however, the question that I think everyone should ponder on is, "If the US falls as the world super power, do you think the alternative will be better?" The US is already behaving the way we expected China would if they become the king of the hill. Pax Americana used to guarantee peace, prosperity and nuclear nonproliferation for the countries participating in it. Now we get threats of invasion, threats of being left to fend for our selves, cozying up to a country that is literally trying to conquer our neighbors. I don’t think it’s anymore a question of _if_, the old world is gone and not coming back.

beached_whale 1mo ago

Canada has been the largest buyer of US goods and services, limiting access to their markets where there are alternatives or they are luxuries can add up quickly. Even in the provinces that didn't outright ban US alcohol, the sales have gone down 55%. Alcohol is really easy though.

refurb 1mo ago

The US has the largest consumer market in the world. The next biggest is the EU which is only 50% the size of the US. If countries of the world decide to trade among themselves, their economies are going to be a lot smaller.

inigyou 1mo ago
That's basically because their currency is the world reserve currency, which makes them rich. Expect that to change soon.