3 ms·

One would think so, but is that really true? Some numbers I just got: - the US imports 60-70% of its oil from Canada - 100% of the natural gas - 85% of energ

One would think so, but is that really true? Some numbers I just got: - the US imports 60-70% of its oil from Canada - 100% of the natural gas - 85% of energy imports - 25% of Uranium - 20% of all mineral imports, ahead of China - the Great Lakes hold >80% of the USA's fresh water - patrolling the almost 9000km border is mostly up to Canada Despite the size disparities, they run close to a trade equilibrium: US exports $420B, imports $450B. There is a lot on the line for the US.

Waterluvian 2mo ago
And Canada has also been passing up an absolutely enormous opportunity for industrial growth by spending generations supporting American industry by remaining a primary resources economy.
- cmrdporcupine 2mo ago
  ... by choice/design of its own leadership :-( Man, I remember watching the '88 election debate as a young teen. So many people were saying this then. Look at us now.
  - steve_adams_86 2mo ago
    I was only 2 in ‘88, but the story is the same from my perspective. I think so much about how to get my city to incentivize more manufacturing industry. The small amount we do have is the most lucrative use of the space in the municipality on a square foot basis, yet the city makes it far more difficult than is necessary to start these types of businesses. Worse still is that this type of space, relative to population, is decreasing when it should be increasing. We have SO MUCH potential in Canada. It’s incredible. The only thing stopping us is ourselves. What drives me nuts too is that my kids find work in places like tourist traps and Tim Hortons. When I was a kid I got to learn to build things, use tools and machines, use my body, plan projects (albeit very menial ones in my teens), and figure out what the hell all this abstract stuff in school was really for. I was applying math, drafting simple designs, writing to customers about orders, and using skills I hadn’t found real-world uses for up until that point. They’re missing out so much. But our city is, too. My kids are worth far more than serving coffee and frying fish and chips for tourists. And they’d be worth even more in ten years if real opportunities existed here. They’d have knowledge and skills they’ll never find in those places. It really drives me crazy. So much wasted potential. We can do better, but we need policies that enable us to do it.
doodlebugging 2mo ago
>- the US imports 60-70% of its oil from Canada In context, this only applies to oil that the US imports. That number means that of the oil that the US imports, 60-70% of it comes from Canada. The US currently produces more oil than any other nation. Your note should read "the US imports 60-70% of the oil that it imports from Canada" - 100% of the natural gas As mentioned above, this means that US imports of natural gas come exclusively from Canada. The US currently produces more natural gas than any other nation too. Your note should read "100% of the natural gas that the US imports comes from Canada" It makes sense that Canada is sole source for imported natural gas since that is a product that is most efficiently transported in pipelines, like crude oil. The way your numbers are framed seems to me to imply that the US is a net importer of oil and natural gas when in fact we began to ramp up exports of oil and natural gas (and coal) in 2006-2008 time period. Those exports helped the industry remain a dominant political force and provided a lot of seed money for the corruption that we have seen in the US since.
- cmrdporcupine 2mo ago
  This is all true but the story is a bit more complicated because of the nature of the refinery configurations means that many of the refineries in the US are specifically geared for / dependent on the heavy crude that comes from Canada and are not set up for the light crude that comes from US domestic oil. Major pipelines (e.g. Enbridge / Mainline / Line 5 etc system) also cross the border back and forth. Same for natural gas etc. Like auto parts/auto manufacturing -- the whole system has been assumed in the past by economic decision makers to be a continent-wide system. Trying to break that apart now is just trying to jam toothpaste back in the tube. It would be an incredible multi-year economic disruption if Canadian oil and gas were to be turned off tomorrow. The bullshit "we don't need anything from Canada" line is beyond insane.
  - doodlebugging 2mo ago
    Thanks for fleshing out another part of the situation. All of our energy production and processing capacity is dependent to some extent on products that are not domestically sourced. Our Gulf of Mexico refineries were originally built to use heavy Venezuelan crude. Citgo is basically the 100% state-owned Venezuelan oil company PDVSA. It is chartered in the US as a Delaware corp headquartered in Texas as PDV Holdings which owns 100% of Citgo Holdings shares. Even with instability in the region and strained relations, the Citgo operation was critical to US production of refined products. Canadian tar sands production began ramping up after 9/11 as in-situ production using steam injection became a big driver over open mining operations. There was consolidation in the industry during that period as the industry rebounded from low crude prices a few years earlier (as low as ~$11.50/bbl) In a few short years the prices had stabilized above $50/bbl so that it has remained economical to produce. Before that, the heavy crude, tar-like products almost all came from Lake Maracaibo.
cmrdporcupine 2mo ago
Notably, none of the goods you just mentioned about (energy imports, uranium, potash, etc.) have had tariffs applied by the Trump regime because they know all this. And it would be political suicide to apply an export tax on them. No, instead the Trump tariffs have specifically targeted the regions of Canada that a) elect left of centre governments and/or b) have manufacturing economies. So Ontario's auto sector, BC's forestry, and Quebec's aluminum and aerospace sectors. Meanwhile Alberta and Saskatchewan -- which have compliant quite honestly pro-Trump governments -- have only 2% of their exports currently impacted by tariffs. It has the look of an attempt at regime change, masquerading as economic policy.

Waterluvian 2mo ago

And Canada has also been passing up an absolutely enormous opportunity for industrial growth by spending generations supporting American industry by remaining a primary resources economy.

cmrdporcupine 2mo ago
... by choice/design of its own leadership :-( Man, I remember watching the '88 election debate as a young teen. So many people were saying this then. Look at us now.
- steve_adams_86 2mo ago
  I was only 2 in ‘88, but the story is the same from my perspective. I think so much about how to get my city to incentivize more manufacturing industry. The small amount we do have is the most lucrative use of the space in the municipality on a square foot basis, yet the city makes it far more difficult than is necessary to start these types of businesses. Worse still is that this type of space, relative to population, is decreasing when it should be increasing. We have SO MUCH potential in Canada. It’s incredible. The only thing stopping us is ourselves. What drives me nuts too is that my kids find work in places like tourist traps and Tim Hortons. When I was a kid I got to learn to build things, use tools and machines, use my body, plan projects (albeit very menial ones in my teens), and figure out what the hell all this abstract stuff in school was really for. I was applying math, drafting simple designs, writing to customers about orders, and using skills I hadn’t found real-world uses for up until that point. They’re missing out so much. But our city is, too. My kids are worth far more than serving coffee and frying fish and chips for tourists. And they’d be worth even more in ten years if real opportunities existed here. They’d have knowledge and skills they’ll never find in those places. It really drives me crazy. So much wasted potential. We can do better, but we need policies that enable us to do it.

doodlebugging 2mo ago

>- the US imports 60-70% of its oil from Canada In context, this only applies to oil that the US imports. That number means that of the oil that the US imports, 60-70% of it comes from Canada. The US currently produces more oil than any other nation. Your note should read "the US imports 60-70% of the oil that it imports from Canada" - 100% of the natural gas As mentioned above, this means that US imports of natural gas come exclusively from Canada. The US currently produces more natural gas than any other nation too. Your note should read "100% of the natural gas that the US imports comes from Canada" It makes sense that Canada is sole source for imported natural gas since that is a product that is most efficiently transported in pipelines, like crude oil. The way your numbers are framed seems to me to imply that the US is a net importer of oil and natural gas when in fact we began to ramp up exports of oil and natural gas (and coal) in 2006-2008 time period. Those exports helped the industry remain a dominant political force and provided a lot of seed money for the corruption that we have seen in the US since.

cmrdporcupine 2mo ago
This is all true but the story is a bit more complicated because of the nature of the refinery configurations means that many of the refineries in the US are specifically geared for / dependent on the heavy crude that comes from Canada and are not set up for the light crude that comes from US domestic oil. Major pipelines (e.g. Enbridge / Mainline / Line 5 etc system) also cross the border back and forth. Same for natural gas etc. Like auto parts/auto manufacturing -- the whole system has been assumed in the past by economic decision makers to be a continent-wide system. Trying to break that apart now is just trying to jam toothpaste back in the tube. It would be an incredible multi-year economic disruption if Canadian oil and gas were to be turned off tomorrow. The bullshit "we don't need anything from Canada" line is beyond insane.
- doodlebugging 2mo ago
  Thanks for fleshing out another part of the situation. All of our energy production and processing capacity is dependent to some extent on products that are not domestically sourced. Our Gulf of Mexico refineries were originally built to use heavy Venezuelan crude. Citgo is basically the 100% state-owned Venezuelan oil company PDVSA. It is chartered in the US as a Delaware corp headquartered in Texas as PDV Holdings which owns 100% of Citgo Holdings shares. Even with instability in the region and strained relations, the Citgo operation was critical to US production of refined products. Canadian tar sands production began ramping up after 9/11 as in-situ production using steam injection became a big driver over open mining operations. There was consolidation in the industry during that period as the industry rebounded from low crude prices a few years earlier (as low as ~$11.50/bbl) In a few short years the prices had stabilized above $50/bbl so that it has remained economical to produce. Before that, the heavy crude, tar-like products almost all came from Lake Maracaibo.

cmrdporcupine 2mo ago

Notably, none of the goods you just mentioned about (energy imports, uranium, potash, etc.) have had tariffs applied by the Trump regime because they know all this. And it would be political suicide to apply an export tax on them. No, instead the Trump tariffs have specifically targeted the regions of Canada that a) elect left of centre governments and/or b) have manufacturing economies. So Ontario's auto sector, BC's forestry, and Quebec's aluminum and aerospace sectors. Meanwhile Alberta and Saskatchewan -- which have compliant quite honestly pro-Trump governments -- have only 2% of their exports currently impacted by tariffs. It has the look of an attempt at regime change, masquerading as economic policy.