3 ms·

You say it like a 35% approval rating is a good thing. It is not.

by loloquwowndueo 2mo ago

sethammons 2mo ago
That a third or more still support him seems crazy to me.
- nilamo 2mo ago
  But it's an approval rating. Of the people surveyed. Who chose to reply. A lot of extrapolations are made out of the 10 people who responded.
  - rfrey 2mo ago
    You do not believe in statistics as a discipline?
    - nilamo 2mo ago
      I don't think most polling qualifies as statistics, without providing info like selection criteria or number of respondents. Otherwise we'll walk right into another situation like when Trump won an election while polling in near last place. Or maybe I want something a little more significant than "we asked around the newsroom, and 35% of fox news reporters approve of the current administration". Cool, thanks, but that's not helpful or even a useful datapoint.
      - deleted 2mo ago
        [deleted]
      - verteu 2mo ago
        > I want something a little more significant than "we asked around the newsroom, and 35% of fox news reporters approve of the current administration". Cool, thanks, but that's not helpful or even a useful datapoint. The state of the art (which confirms this ~35% approval number) is far more rigorous than that. Start with a meta-review of historical accuracy and transparency, eg: https://www.natesilver.net/p/pollster-ratings-silver-bulletin https://www.natesilver.net/p/pollster-ratings-silver-bulleti... Details on methodology and sample size can be Googled, eg: https://poll.qu.edu/methodology/ https://poll.qu.edu/methodology/ , https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/07/24/everything-you-ever-wanted-to-know-about-how-washington-post-polling-works/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/07/24/ev... , https://www.google.com/search?q=Marquette+University+Law+School+polling+methodology https://www.google.com/search?q=Marquette+University+Law+Sch..., etc. Sample size is less important than you might think, due to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_proportion_confidence_interval https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_proportion_confidence...
    - deleted 2mo ago
      [deleted]
- AngryData 2mo ago
  Yeah but you can get 30% of people to support almost anything once you get them hooked. Some people are always going to be dumb or too stubborn to ever admit they were wrong.
- steve_adams_86 2mo ago
  Even 10% would concern me.
Hugsbox 2mo ago
Still way too high.
lotsofpulp 2mo ago
35% of US voters is all you need to be President and control the Senate, effectively controlling the US government.
- goatlover 2mo ago
  We'll see if that's true come the midterms. I have doubts Republicans can keep enough seats with that sort of approval, given it's much worse with independents, and the Republican candidates seem to be a lot weaker than their Democratic opponents in a number of key races, like Texas. Only thing I'm less sure of is the huge amount of Super PAC money Republicans have to spend on tight races.
deleted 2mo ago
[deleted]

You say it like a 35% approval rating is a good thing. It is not.

sethammons 2mo ago

That a third or more still support him seems crazy to me.

nilamo 2mo ago
But it's an approval rating. Of the people surveyed. Who chose to reply. A lot of extrapolations are made out of the 10 people who responded.
- rfrey 2mo ago
  You do not believe in statistics as a discipline?
  - nilamo 2mo ago
    I don't think most polling qualifies as statistics, without providing info like selection criteria or number of respondents. Otherwise we'll walk right into another situation like when Trump won an election while polling in near last place. Or maybe I want something a little more significant than "we asked around the newsroom, and 35% of fox news reporters approve of the current administration". Cool, thanks, but that's not helpful or even a useful datapoint.
    - deleted 2mo ago
      [deleted]
    - verteu 2mo ago
      > I want something a little more significant than "we asked around the newsroom, and 35% of fox news reporters approve of the current administration". Cool, thanks, but that's not helpful or even a useful datapoint. The state of the art (which confirms this ~35% approval number) is far more rigorous than that. Start with a meta-review of historical accuracy and transparency, eg: https://www.natesilver.net/p/pollster-ratings-silver-bulletin https://www.natesilver.net/p/pollster-ratings-silver-bulleti... Details on methodology and sample size can be Googled, eg: https://poll.qu.edu/methodology/ https://poll.qu.edu/methodology/ , https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/07/24/everything-you-ever-wanted-to-know-about-how-washington-post-polling-works/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/07/24/ev... , https://www.google.com/search?q=Marquette+University+Law+School+polling+methodology https://www.google.com/search?q=Marquette+University+Law+Sch..., etc. Sample size is less important than you might think, due to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_proportion_confidence_interval https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_proportion_confidence...
  - deleted 2mo ago
    [deleted]
AngryData 2mo ago
Yeah but you can get 30% of people to support almost anything once you get them hooked. Some people are always going to be dumb or too stubborn to ever admit they were wrong.
steve_adams_86 2mo ago
Even 10% would concern me.

Hugsbox 2mo ago

Still way too high.

lotsofpulp 2mo ago

35% of US voters is all you need to be President and control the Senate, effectively controlling the US government.

goatlover 2mo ago
We'll see if that's true come the midterms. I have doubts Republicans can keep enough seats with that sort of approval, given it's much worse with independents, and the Republican candidates seem to be a lot weaker than their Democratic opponents in a number of key races, like Texas. Only thing I'm less sure of is the huge amount of Super PAC money Republicans have to spend on tight races.

deleted 2mo ago

[deleted]