4 ms·

And then the Europeans suddenly discover that they cannot manufacture enough artillery shells and tanks to out-number the Russians.

by paganel 2mo ago

eigenspace 2mo ago
You are not very informed on the EU's artillery shell production capabilities. If anything, the major gap is the EU's lack of cheap drone manufacturing, but even that is starting to make progress with help and integration from Ukraine.
- paganel 2mo ago
  > You are not very informed on the EU's artillery shell production capabilities. > In 2025, Russia produced an estimated 7 million artillery shells, vs. > Germany has rapidly scaled up artillery ammunition production, led by defense giant Rheinmetall. Output targets have surged from roughly 70,000 shells per year prior to 2022 to a projected 1.1 million to 1.5 million rounds annually by 2027–2030, so now vs. "projected" and Russia still heavily outnumbers the former Nazis. Which is to say give me a fricking break, I live in the closest EU and NATO capital city to Southern Ukraine, I know my shit.
  - eigenspace 2mo ago
    Rheinmetall's current output is 1.1 million per year, aiming to hit 1.5 by 2027 and continue to scale up from there. That is just one company in one country in the EU, though they are the largest one. The EU also simply has way more capacity to scale up shell production than Russia does, and the EU is building up stockpiles while Russia uses up everything they make.
    - pvaldes 2mo ago
      Plus Russia can't replace easily some soviet era vehicles because nobody alive knows how to make this vehicles anymore.
throw0101a 2mo ago
> And then the Europeans suddenly discover that they cannot manufacture enough artillery shells and tanks to out-number the Russians. Germany (by itself) is apparently out-producing the US artillery shell production. * https://www.newsweek.com/germany-overtakes-us-in-ammunition-production-capacity-11886409 https://www.newsweek.com/germany-overtakes-us-in-ammunition-... Russia's GDP is below that of Italy (and barely above Canada, who is in NATO): * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi... If the Europeans really want to, they could produce a lot more by converting over to 'war mode'. Certainly they need to do more with current geopolitics, but there is no need to crank it to 11.
- deleted 2mo ago
  [deleted]
- amarcheschi 2mo ago
  >if the Europeans really want to, they could produce a lot more by converting over to 'war mode' As an Italian there's definitely been a perceptible shift due to the increase in defense spending. Leonardo now makes TV ads (something I had never seen before), they advertise on newspapers (...) Off topic, but it's funny to me how the Leonardo TV ads basically skips over the defense part https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXytSNOt_0I https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXytSNOt_0I
- codedokode 2mo ago
  Note that GDP does not directly translate into a number of tanks and missiles produced. I doubt Italy has more weapon than Russia.
  - dbdr 2mo ago
    Of course, because Russia spends 7+% of its GDP on its military, and Italy 1.6%. It does say something about the relative capacity though. Russia probably cannot sustain this level of spending forever, and European countries could (continue) raising it if needed.
  - throw0101a 2mo ago
teh64 2mo ago
Idk, I think the europeans can do better than paying over 500 million dollars to manufacture none [0]. [0] https://www.propublica.org/article/general-dynamics-artillery-factory-failed https://www.propublica.org/article/general-dynamics-artiller...
realusername 2mo ago
You are deluded, the EU is an industrial powerhouse compared to Russia, what's missing is just the political will
phonon 2mo ago
Uhhh, we're not doing so hot there either. https://www.propublica.org/article/general-dynamics-artillery-factory-failed https://www.propublica.org/article/general-dynamics-artiller...
pvaldes 2mo ago
Please. Russia had an economy of the size of Italy. And I said "had", because this was before Ukraine destroyed most of their oil plants, and refineries, and their navy, and their petrol fleet, and the online stores, and before they killed a big chunk of their male workforce. And before they have an increasing debt with China and NK that they will need to repay somehow. At this point everybody knows that the Russian economy will not survive after the war is over and that the country most probably will split. Europe can deal with a ruined post-Ukraine war Russia. They would just stand some suffering, but for sure 500 millions of motivated people can build more and faster than 100 millions of a Russia tied by deliberate anti-efficiency rules build to please oligarchs. The only question is how much damage could Russia do, before Moscow and St Petersburg are reduced to ashes as retaliation if they dare to try the final solution. The hybrid war is the real problem. Russia can sponsor still many street "Syrian" terrorist attacks in Sweden, or cause a train wreck here and there, or burn Malibu for basically peanuts. They can do this for years and years.

And then the Europeans suddenly discover that they cannot manufacture enough artillery shells and tanks to out-number the Russians.

by paganel 2mo ago

And then the Europeans suddenly discover that they cannot manufacture enough artillery shells and tanks to out-number the Russians.

eigenspace 2mo ago

You are not very informed on the EU's artillery shell production capabilities. If anything, the major gap is the EU's lack of cheap drone manufacturing, but even that is starting to make progress with help and integration from Ukraine.

paganel 2mo ago
> You are not very informed on the EU's artillery shell production capabilities. > In 2025, Russia produced an estimated 7 million artillery shells, vs. > Germany has rapidly scaled up artillery ammunition production, led by defense giant Rheinmetall. Output targets have surged from roughly 70,000 shells per year prior to 2022 to a projected 1.1 million to 1.5 million rounds annually by 2027–2030, so now vs. "projected" and Russia still heavily outnumbers the former Nazis. Which is to say give me a fricking break, I live in the closest EU and NATO capital city to Southern Ukraine, I know my shit.
- eigenspace 2mo ago
  Rheinmetall's current output is 1.1 million per year, aiming to hit 1.5 by 2027 and continue to scale up from there. That is just one company in one country in the EU, though they are the largest one. The EU also simply has way more capacity to scale up shell production than Russia does, and the EU is building up stockpiles while Russia uses up everything they make.
  - pvaldes 2mo ago
    Plus Russia can't replace easily some soviet era vehicles because nobody alive knows how to make this vehicles anymore.

throw0101a 2mo ago

> And then the Europeans suddenly discover that they cannot manufacture enough artillery shells and tanks to out-number the Russians. Germany (by itself) is apparently out-producing the US artillery shell production. * https://www.newsweek.com/germany-overtakes-us-in-ammunition-production-capacity-11886409 https://www.newsweek.com/germany-overtakes-us-in-ammunition-... Russia's GDP is below that of Italy (and barely above Canada, who is in NATO): * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi... If the Europeans really want to, they could produce a lot more by converting over to 'war mode'. Certainly they need to do more with current geopolitics, but there is no need to crank it to 11.

deleted 2mo ago
[deleted]
amarcheschi 2mo ago
>if the Europeans really want to, they could produce a lot more by converting over to 'war mode' As an Italian there's definitely been a perceptible shift due to the increase in defense spending. Leonardo now makes TV ads (something I had never seen before), they advertise on newspapers (...) Off topic, but it's funny to me how the Leonardo TV ads basically skips over the defense part https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXytSNOt_0I https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXytSNOt_0I
codedokode 2mo ago
Note that GDP does not directly translate into a number of tanks and missiles produced. I doubt Italy has more weapon than Russia.
- dbdr 2mo ago
  Of course, because Russia spends 7+% of its GDP on its military, and Italy 1.6%. It does say something about the relative capacity though. Russia probably cannot sustain this level of spending forever, and European countries could (continue) raising it if needed.
- throw0101a 2mo ago

teh64 2mo ago

Idk, I think the europeans can do better than paying over 500 million dollars to manufacture none [0]. [0] https://www.propublica.org/article/general-dynamics-artillery-factory-failed https://www.propublica.org/article/general-dynamics-artiller...

realusername 2mo ago

You are deluded, the EU is an industrial powerhouse compared to Russia, what's missing is just the political will

phonon 2mo ago

Uhhh, we're not doing so hot there either. https://www.propublica.org/article/general-dynamics-artillery-factory-failed https://www.propublica.org/article/general-dynamics-artiller...

pvaldes 2mo ago

Please. Russia had an economy of the size of Italy. And I said "had", because this was before Ukraine destroyed most of their oil plants, and refineries, and their navy, and their petrol fleet, and the online stores, and before they killed a big chunk of their male workforce. And before they have an increasing debt with China and NK that they will need to repay somehow. At this point everybody knows that the Russian economy will not survive after the war is over and that the country most probably will split. Europe can deal with a ruined post-Ukraine war Russia. They would just stand some suffering, but for sure 500 millions of motivated people can build more and faster than 100 millions of a Russia tied by deliberate anti-efficiency rules build to please oligarchs. The only question is how much damage could Russia do, before Moscow and St Petersburg are reduced to ashes as retaliation if they dare to try the final solution. The hybrid war is the real problem. Russia can sponsor still many street "Syrian" terrorist attacks in Sweden, or cause a train wreck here and there, or burn Malibu for basically peanuts. They can do this for years and years.