4 ms·

Yes, even memory manufacturers believe it is temporary which is part of the reason that supply has not increased to match demand and prices have spiked.

applfanboysbgon 2mo ago
> even memory manufacturers believe it is temporary Do they? Is that why they've committed to literally doubling their production capacity in 5 years?
- kube-system 2mo ago
  Yes? And most of that is just announcements from SK Hynix and CXMT coming online. Samsung's announcements are more conservative, and Micron is barely building shit. All of it put together still drags far behind demand, according to every financial statement by every DRAM manufacturer. This is intentional because DRAM historically follow boom-bust cycles. Literally, they have all said they are intentionally aiming to build less than demand. Nobody wants to be stuck paying for a fab that isn't running at capacity 10 years from now. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sky-high-dram-prices-set-122942504.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sky-high-dram-prices-set-1229...
ktm5j 2mo ago
Considering their position, I wouldn't trust a damn thing that memory manufacturers say right now. They're the ones taking advantage of the increased demand by increasing prices.
- kube-system 2mo ago
  That's not how it works. There's a lot of DRAM pricing scandals but this is not one of them. In this supply constrained market, DRAM manufacturers literally aren't the ones deciding to increase prices, buyers who are bidding up the price of future capacity are the ones increasing the prices.
- Gormo 2mo ago
  What does what they say have to do with it? If memory manufacturers believed that elevated demand were likely to persist indefinitely, expanding supply to reach the optimal market-clearing price is exactly what taking advantage of the situation would look like. The extent to which they're not investing in expanded production capacity is the extent to which they manifestly don't believe the current demand spike will sustain over the long term

applfanboysbgon 2mo ago

> even memory manufacturers believe it is temporary Do they? Is that why they've committed to literally doubling their production capacity in 5 years?

kube-system 2mo ago
Yes? And most of that is just announcements from SK Hynix and CXMT coming online. Samsung's announcements are more conservative, and Micron is barely building shit. All of it put together still drags far behind demand, according to every financial statement by every DRAM manufacturer. This is intentional because DRAM historically follow boom-bust cycles. Literally, they have all said they are intentionally aiming to build less than demand. Nobody wants to be stuck paying for a fab that isn't running at capacity 10 years from now. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sky-high-dram-prices-set-122942504.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sky-high-dram-prices-set-1229...

ktm5j 2mo ago

Considering their position, I wouldn't trust a damn thing that memory manufacturers say right now. They're the ones taking advantage of the increased demand by increasing prices.

kube-system 2mo ago
That's not how it works. There's a lot of DRAM pricing scandals but this is not one of them. In this supply constrained market, DRAM manufacturers literally aren't the ones deciding to increase prices, buyers who are bidding up the price of future capacity are the ones increasing the prices.
Gormo 2mo ago
What does what they say have to do with it? If memory manufacturers believed that elevated demand were likely to persist indefinitely, expanding supply to reach the optimal market-clearing price is exactly what taking advantage of the situation would look like. The extent to which they're not investing in expanded production capacity is the extent to which they manifestly don't believe the current demand spike will sustain over the long term