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>My point I guess is mostly that Israeli's need to be convinced that the Palestinians actually want to end the war and make a peace deal, but to do that you pro

>My point I guess is mostly that Israeli's need to be convinced that the Palestinians actually want to end the war and make a peace deal, but to do that you probably need to first convince the Palestinians that it's in their best interest to end the war and make a final peace deal. I understand what point you think you are making, but I think it illustrates your enormous disconnect. Let's say you are an Israeli Jew, maybe you know someone killed in a terror attack and maybe 3 people injured serving in the IDF. The same Palestinian (based on ratios or relative deaths and injuries) knows 50 people killed and 150 people injured. And the age profile of Palestinians is massively slanted towards the young, the people you see killed and injured are much more likely to be younger rather than older people. Add to that the stress and perceived safety of these two groups on a day to day basis couldn't be more different: One lives in a war zone without security of the basics of existence and the other lives in a nice western country where atheists can happily go out for a meal, then watch some football then go clubbing. Look at the way Israel reacted after the terror attack, it was hardly calm and measured, it acted a lot more like Hamas - and that was a one-off shock event. That's not a coincidence. People are people. Now Palestinians are people who, from their perspective, are being asked to negotiate with the people who not only killed/injured these people, but also who took their homes and land in the first place. And the context of the negotiation is that they are being offered land whilst it is currently being settled on. Meanwhile, your concern is Israeli's need to be convinced that the Palestinians actually want to end the war and make a peace deal. It's just fundamentally disconnected from reality. I think all it really illustrates is just how well Israel has managed to isolate elements of news media from the enormous suffering of Palestinians. > Palestinians have agency, there are different paths they can go down and Israel has a history of making peace deals with Arabs. I mean, again, I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt in you believing what you are saying, but Palestinians have tried different paths - e.g. peaceful demonstration - countless times. One example which jumps to mind (because the late Sir Gerald Kaufman - a British jew - explicitly raised the issue in the house of commons) occurred at Nabi Saleh, a Palestinian village where regular demonstrations against the occupation and settlements took place. He said that peaceful demonstration involving Palestinians and Israelis, including women and children, had been attacked with gas, sound grenades and rubber bullets, and a vehicle that hurled sewage at them. Israel also hasn't been particularly bothered in the past with international demonstrators being killed demonstrating against things like home demolitions. My take, it's a deterrent. Based on its actions, I find it difficult to believe Israel explicitly doesn't want peaceful demonstration, especially peaceful demonstration that the world can see. It needs to encourage violence for its strategy to work. >The side that isn't ready for a peace deal yet is the side that refuses to negotiate in good faith. They haven't been offered a negotiation in good faith. You basically conceded this earlier. I think even if they were offered a negotiation that looked to be in good faith its likely it wouldn't actually be in good faith because some significant proportion of actors in the Israeli administration would prevent it. This is putting aside the issue of non administration actions (like presidential assassinations). Israel absolutely isn't ready for a peace deal and from my point of view, it's extremely difficult to look at it's actions and believe it actually wants one. I'm sure many do, but the direction of travel seems to be, "pretend, continue to maintain American support via whatever means necessary, slowly cook the frog". >Russia follows that same pattern with Ukraine because like the Palestinians they think they need to continue the fight to get a better outcome. I think it's questionable whether "Russia" is even trying to take Ukraine at this point. The Kremlin/putin is probably just trying to break Ukraine away from the Russian diaspora. You can't have a free, rich successful country next to Russia, which Russians have connections to and can see is a much better place to live and expect to maintain a dictatorship on the same terms you have to date in the long term. And Ukrainians have an even longer history with the Russ, well before the Holdomor. It's not exactly a surprise they continue to resist. >Well, they kind of tried that... They kind of tried that? Anyone that cannot walk in the shoes of a normal Palestinian has zero chance of resolving this. I don't think Israel can continue to obscure and cover up the reality of the lives Palestinians actually live in the long term, so this looks life a zero-sum game to me, at present. >I mean, you can say the same about most countries in that region which have far worse ethical issues in general. Yes you can, but as you know, you're trying to side step ethics with a convenient slight of hand not related to the issue at hand, not me. Look, it's always good to talk, but I don't think we are getting anywhere at this point. I just would prefer to stop seeing so many kids dying and Jews outside Israel (who are hugely opposed to Israels actions) ironically having to suffer biogtry by association. Have a good one.

jameshilliard 1mo ago
> Let's say you are an Israeli Jew, maybe you know someone killed in a terror attack and maybe 3 people injured serving in the IDF. The same Palestinian (based on ratios or relative deaths and injuries) knows 50 people killed and 150 people injured. And the age profile of Palestinians is massively slanted towards the young, the people you see killed and injured are much more likely to be younger rather than older people. Sure, I don't disagree there, but this probably has more to do with Israel going to extreme efforts to protect the lives of their citizens as opposed to Hamas which goes to extreme efforts to put their civilian population in harms way. > Add to that the stress and perceived safety of these two groups on a day to day basis couldn't be more different: One lives in a war zone without security of the basics of existence and the other lives in a nice western country where atheists can happily go out for a meal, then watch some football then go clubbing. I don't disagree that the conditions are different between the sides however Israelis also live in fear, especially due to their history and enemies that openly call for their destruction. > Look at the way Israel reacted after the terror attack, it was hardly calm and measured, it acted a lot more like Hamas - and that was a one-off shock event. That's not a coincidence. People are people. I would expect most countries to respond extremely aggressively to a large terror attack like October 7th so I don't view Israel's response as being unusually harsh, given the severity of the attack it seems to be reasonably measured. When the US was attacked it invaded 2 countries(one of which wasn't even involved in the attacks). > Now Palestinians are people who, from their perspective, are being asked to negotiate with the people who not only killed/injured these people, but also who took their homes and land in the first place. Yes, because you don't negotiate peace deals with allies, you negotiate them with enemies. Unfortunately it's very difficult to negotiate with Jihadis in general. It's also very difficult to deter them. I understand why they don't want to negotiate in good faith, it's because they believe that they will obtain their goals by continuing to fight. > They haven't been offered a negotiation in good faith. You basically conceded this earlier. I think even if they were offered a negotiation that looked to be in good faith its likely it wouldn't actually be in good faith because some significant proportion of actors in the Israeli administration would prevent it. This is putting aside the issue of non administration actions (like presidential assassinations). Historically the Israelis at a few points in time did try to negotiate a two state solution in good faith, unfortunately the Palestinian leadership was not negotiating in good faith. The current right wing government came to power due to the failure of those negotiations and the subsequent Second Intifada. This hardened Israeli's into thinking the Palestinians simply will never agree to a final peace deal. Hence you now have the current Israeli government that is not particularly willing to try and negotiate a peace deal due to the widespread view that any attempt would be futile at this stage. > I think it's questionable whether "Russia" is even trying to take Ukraine at this point. The Kremlin/putin is probably just trying to break Ukraine away from the Russian diaspora. They still probably want to take Ukraine, which explains why they have refused to negotiate terms in good faith. > You can't have a free, rich successful country next to Russia, which Russians have connections to and can see is a much better place to live and expect to maintain a dictatorship on the same terms you have to date in the long term. I think it's more a spheres of influence/imperialism sort of thing than anything to do with economics. > And Ukrainians have an even longer history with the Russ, well before the Holdomor. It's not exactly a surprise they continue to resist. There's a very good reason all the post-soviet countries begged to join NATO, they recognize who their long term enemy is. Unfortunately Ukraine didn't take measures to deal with that threat quickly enough like other post-soviet countries did. > They kind of tried that? I mean the Gaza disengagement was a concession made by Israel, it was made unilaterally however which is the big reason it ultimately failed catastrophically. > Anyone that cannot walk in the shoes of a normal Palestinian has zero chance of resolving this. I don't think Israel can continue to obscure and cover up the reality of the lives Palestinians actually live in the long term, so this looks life a zero-sum game to me, at present. I'm not denying the Palestinians in Gaza live in a very bad situation, however that situation is at least in part due to their own bad decisions. Palestinians have agency and need to understand that they also need to take steps to make their lives better. > Look, it's always good to talk, but I don't think we are getting anywhere at this point. Maybe not but talking can help understand the perspective of the other side as well, I try to understand both sides as best I can so that I can look for areas of potential agreement and viable paths to peace. > I just would prefer to stop seeing so many kids dying and Jews outside Israel (who are hugely opposed to Israels actions) ironically having to suffer biogtry by association. I think most Israelis also want to stop seeing so many kids dying as well, I certainly do, but Israelis also don't want to sacrifice the lives of their own children to an enemy that clearly wants their destruction.

jameshilliard 1mo ago

> Let's say you are an Israeli Jew, maybe you know someone killed in a terror attack and maybe 3 people injured serving in the IDF. The same Palestinian (based on ratios or relative deaths and injuries) knows 50 people killed and 150 people injured. And the age profile of Palestinians is massively slanted towards the young, the people you see killed and injured are much more likely to be younger rather than older people. Sure, I don't disagree there, but this probably has more to do with Israel going to extreme efforts to protect the lives of their citizens as opposed to Hamas which goes to extreme efforts to put their civilian population in harms way. > Add to that the stress and perceived safety of these two groups on a day to day basis couldn't be more different: One lives in a war zone without security of the basics of existence and the other lives in a nice western country where atheists can happily go out for a meal, then watch some football then go clubbing. I don't disagree that the conditions are different between the sides however Israelis also live in fear, especially due to their history and enemies that openly call for their destruction. > Look at the way Israel reacted after the terror attack, it was hardly calm and measured, it acted a lot more like Hamas - and that was a one-off shock event. That's not a coincidence. People are people. I would expect most countries to respond extremely aggressively to a large terror attack like October 7th so I don't view Israel's response as being unusually harsh, given the severity of the attack it seems to be reasonably measured. When the US was attacked it invaded 2 countries(one of which wasn't even involved in the attacks). > Now Palestinians are people who, from their perspective, are being asked to negotiate with the people who not only killed/injured these people, but also who took their homes and land in the first place. Yes, because you don't negotiate peace deals with allies, you negotiate them with enemies. Unfortunately it's very difficult to negotiate with Jihadis in general. It's also very difficult to deter them. I understand why they don't want to negotiate in good faith, it's because they believe that they will obtain their goals by continuing to fight. > They haven't been offered a negotiation in good faith. You basically conceded this earlier. I think even if they were offered a negotiation that looked to be in good faith its likely it wouldn't actually be in good faith because some significant proportion of actors in the Israeli administration would prevent it. This is putting aside the issue of non administration actions (like presidential assassinations). Historically the Israelis at a few points in time did try to negotiate a two state solution in good faith, unfortunately the Palestinian leadership was not negotiating in good faith. The current right wing government came to power due to the failure of those negotiations and the subsequent Second Intifada. This hardened Israeli's into thinking the Palestinians simply will never agree to a final peace deal. Hence you now have the current Israeli government that is not particularly willing to try and negotiate a peace deal due to the widespread view that any attempt would be futile at this stage. > I think it's questionable whether "Russia" is even trying to take Ukraine at this point. The Kremlin/putin is probably just trying to break Ukraine away from the Russian diaspora. They still probably want to take Ukraine, which explains why they have refused to negotiate terms in good faith. > You can't have a free, rich successful country next to Russia, which Russians have connections to and can see is a much better place to live and expect to maintain a dictatorship on the same terms you have to date in the long term. I think it's more a spheres of influence/imperialism sort of thing than anything to do with economics. > And Ukrainians have an even longer history with the Russ, well before the Holdomor. It's not exactly a surprise they continue to resist. There's a very good reason all the post-soviet countries begged to join NATO, they recognize who their long term enemy is. Unfortunately Ukraine didn't take measures to deal with that threat quickly enough like other post-soviet countries did. > They kind of tried that? I mean the Gaza disengagement was a concession made by Israel, it was made unilaterally however which is the big reason it ultimately failed catastrophically. > Anyone that cannot walk in the shoes of a normal Palestinian has zero chance of resolving this. I don't think Israel can continue to obscure and cover up the reality of the lives Palestinians actually live in the long term, so this looks life a zero-sum game to me, at present. I'm not denying the Palestinians in Gaza live in a very bad situation, however that situation is at least in part due to their own bad decisions. Palestinians have agency and need to understand that they also need to take steps to make their lives better. > Look, it's always good to talk, but I don't think we are getting anywhere at this point. Maybe not but talking can help understand the perspective of the other side as well, I try to understand both sides as best I can so that I can look for areas of potential agreement and viable paths to peace. > I just would prefer to stop seeing so many kids dying and Jews outside Israel (who are hugely opposed to Israels actions) ironically having to suffer biogtry by association. I think most Israelis also want to stop seeing so many kids dying as well, I certainly do, but Israelis also don't want to sacrifice the lives of their own children to an enemy that clearly wants their destruction.