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Russia is the odd one out here, in that it was started by Russian incursions as far back as 2014: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_occupation_of_Crimea htt
by pjc50 2mo ago
Russia is the odd one out here, in that it was started by Russian incursions as far back as 2014: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_occupation_of_Crimea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_occupation_of_Crimea
The think tank argument is very valid though. You can no longer find "Project for the new American Century" online, but they laid out the invasion of Iraq before 9/11 (the pretext) even happened.
- cpursley 2mo agoGosh, now I wonder why they would have possibly intervened at that particular time. No geopolitical analysts anywhere could have ever predicted the reaction of Russia to the possibility of Sevastopol becoming a NATO Naval base and US forward strike forces and missile base setting up shop just 250 miles away from Moscow...
- pjc50 2mo agoThe "buffer zone" argument works in reverse: gee, I wonder why Europe got worried given that annexation of Ukraine would put Russian forces right next to Poland, Slovakia, Hungary (Orban era), Romania, and Moldova (which is already partly occupied in Transnistria).
- soco 2mo ago[flagged]
- deleted 2mo ago[deleted]
- def_true_false 2mo agoThere are already NATO bases within 250 miles of St Petersburg. Pray tell, what's so special about Moscow?
- cpursley 2mo agoReally? Hum, maybe it’s the political and economic capital? What’s so special about Kiev, Paris?
- leonidasrup 2mo agoDistance between Sevastopol and Moscow is 1284 km, 798.31 mi or 693.71 nmi. On the other hand distance from Kaliningrad to Berlin is just 618 km, 384 mi or 333.94 nmi.
- cpursley 2mo agoChernihiv is 280 miles, I was off my a bit. Kaliningrad is not the concern. Sevastopol is a different type of concern (navy power). Russia has a long insecurity about its western boarder going back way before Putin, no leadership there unless in the pocket of the US was going to allow that in the same way China ain’t building an alliance with Mexico. This is geopolitics 101, day 1 material.
- leonidasrup 2mo agoExactly the same way the Russians are uneasy about Chernihiv, Western countries are uneasy about Kaliningrad with it's nuclear-capable Iskander-M missiles. https://metro.co.uk/2025/06/17/russia-upgrades-nuclear-sites-closest-uk-23441537/ https://metro.co.uk/2025/06/17/russia-upgrades-nuclear-sites... Geopolitics 101 also says that in a war between countries armed with ICBMs delivering nuclear weapons, distance doesn't matter, everyone dies. Especially with second-strike capability like Dead Hand (Sistema "Perimetr"). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_hand https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_hand