4 ms·

You might consider reading the actual Kentucky study (as I did at the time) and looking at the limitations. This and the one in October are exactly the kind of

You might consider reading the actual Kentucky study (as I did at the time) and looking at the limitations. This and the one in October are exactly the kind of shit that would get published and then reports like your link would way overstate what they were actually capable of showing. Eventually things calmed down enough that studies could actually be published showing the efficacy of a prior infection without risking careers. You're misunderstanding btw, I didn't go around telling anyone but my closest friends and family. I wasnt about to out myself as a heretic when the likely biggest propaganda campaign in history was going on (pandemic of the unvaccinated, etc). It was mostly in hn threads on studies like the ones you posted where I would say anything about it.

estearum 1mo ago
So why did you claim to be treated like a leper? And yes, all studies have limitations, especially observational studies done in the middle of an emergency. Here's your claim: "There was never any indication in the data that a previously recovered person posed any kind of heightened threat to anyone else" That is quite obviously false. If you believe there was superior data available at the time, please share it. Otherwise, yes that is exactly what the data showed (imperfect as all data is). > Eventually things calmed down enough that studies could actually be published showing the efficacy of a prior infection without risking careers. Like which studies? (Not that more recent studies could've possibly time-traveled to inform your decision-making in the past, of course).
- ifyoubuildit 1mo ago
  A reasonable prior (which my doctor ascribed to) was that immunity after recovery from an infection with a coronavirus would be pretty durable and effective, and you can find plenty of reporting to support the effectiveness early on. To believe otherwise would take some solid evidence, and maybe the Kentucky study is enough to convince you, but it was not enough to convince me (or apparently my doctor, though we didn't talk about that). It even said this: Finally, this is a retrospective study design using data from a single state during a 2-month period; therefore, these findings cannot be used to infer causation. So maybe "any indication" was too strong. How about any convincing indication? Meanwhile you had things like this demonstrating that prior infection was pretty damn protective as early as late 2020: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034545 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034545 There were others as well, I was following this very closely because it seemed pretty important to not be wrong, and all of the messaging was very insistent.
  - estearum 1mo ago
    The study you linked is evidence that prior infection reduces the rate of reinfection. Yes, this would be surprising if it were not true. Your prior claim was that prior infection is equivalent to or superior to vaccination (i.e. relying on prior infection was not "heightened risk"). That was, and remains, completely false.
    - ifyoubuildit 1mo ago
      That's not quite my claim, but its close enough. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9047157/ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9047157/ "Conclusions: Naturally acquired immunity confers stronger protection against infection and symptomatic disease caused by the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, compared to the BNT162b2 2-dose vaccine-indued immunity." https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e1.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e1.htm "What is added by this report? During May–November 2021, case and hospitalization rates were highest among persons who were unvaccinated without a previous diagnosis. Before Delta became the predominant variant in June, case rates were higher among persons who survived a previous infection than persons who were vaccinated alone. By early October, persons who survived a previous infection had lower case rates than persons who were vaccinated alone." "That was, and remains, completely false." Would you like to amend your claim? You might have an argument if you stick to "could have been false for short periods of time after people were freshly vaccinated", but otherwise that's pretty indefensible.
      - estearum 1mo ago
        You are again misunderstanding the data and its relevance to what we're talking about. The vaccine protection was not superior for a short period after vaccination. It was superior for the initial variant. We've already established the vaccines became much less effective at reducing transmission in subsequent waves. You've just shared an article that says the Delta wave evaded vaccines for transmission. Yes, that's correct. How on earth could the Delta variant's evasion have informed your decision not to get vaccinated? By my "that was and remains false", I am saying it was not only apparently false at the time, but it has been confirmed to be actually false retrospectively as well.

estearum 1mo ago

So why did you claim to be treated like a leper? And yes, all studies have limitations, especially observational studies done in the middle of an emergency. Here's your claim: "There was never any indication in the data that a previously recovered person posed any kind of heightened threat to anyone else" That is quite obviously false. If you believe there was superior data available at the time, please share it. Otherwise, yes that is exactly what the data showed (imperfect as all data is). > Eventually things calmed down enough that studies could actually be published showing the efficacy of a prior infection without risking careers. Like which studies? (Not that more recent studies could've possibly time-traveled to inform your decision-making in the past, of course).

ifyoubuildit 1mo ago
A reasonable prior (which my doctor ascribed to) was that immunity after recovery from an infection with a coronavirus would be pretty durable and effective, and you can find plenty of reporting to support the effectiveness early on. To believe otherwise would take some solid evidence, and maybe the Kentucky study is enough to convince you, but it was not enough to convince me (or apparently my doctor, though we didn't talk about that). It even said this: Finally, this is a retrospective study design using data from a single state during a 2-month period; therefore, these findings cannot be used to infer causation. So maybe "any indication" was too strong. How about any convincing indication? Meanwhile you had things like this demonstrating that prior infection was pretty damn protective as early as late 2020: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034545 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034545 There were others as well, I was following this very closely because it seemed pretty important to not be wrong, and all of the messaging was very insistent.
- estearum 1mo ago
  The study you linked is evidence that prior infection reduces the rate of reinfection. Yes, this would be surprising if it were not true. Your prior claim was that prior infection is equivalent to or superior to vaccination (i.e. relying on prior infection was not "heightened risk"). That was, and remains, completely false.
  - ifyoubuildit 1mo ago
    That's not quite my claim, but its close enough. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9047157/ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9047157/ "Conclusions: Naturally acquired immunity confers stronger protection against infection and symptomatic disease caused by the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, compared to the BNT162b2 2-dose vaccine-indued immunity." https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e1.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e1.htm "What is added by this report? During May–November 2021, case and hospitalization rates were highest among persons who were unvaccinated without a previous diagnosis. Before Delta became the predominant variant in June, case rates were higher among persons who survived a previous infection than persons who were vaccinated alone. By early October, persons who survived a previous infection had lower case rates than persons who were vaccinated alone." "That was, and remains, completely false." Would you like to amend your claim? You might have an argument if you stick to "could have been false for short periods of time after people were freshly vaccinated", but otherwise that's pretty indefensible.
    - estearum 1mo ago
      You are again misunderstanding the data and its relevance to what we're talking about. The vaccine protection was not superior for a short period after vaccination. It was superior for the initial variant. We've already established the vaccines became much less effective at reducing transmission in subsequent waves. You've just shared an article that says the Delta wave evaded vaccines for transmission. Yes, that's correct. How on earth could the Delta variant's evasion have informed your decision not to get vaccinated? By my "that was and remains false", I am saying it was not only apparently false at the time, but it has been confirmed to be actually false retrospectively as well.