4 ms·

I can't find the reason in the article, but I'd like to propose that it's because making new things is hard and people are optimists? An interesting comparison

by casca 14y ago

I can't find the reason in the article, but I'd like to propose that it's because making new things is hard and people are optimists? An interesting comparison would be to know how many projects in general are shipped late. Otherwise it will be another case of "1/4 of all crimes in London are committed by foreigners!" where 24% of Londoners are foreigners.

rm999 14y ago
This part: > Why are so many crowdfunded projects blowing their deadlines? >Over and over in our interviews, the same pattern emerged. A team of ambitious but inexperienced creators launched a project that they expected would attract a few hundred backers. It took off, raising vastly more money than they anticipated -- and obliterating the original production plans and timeline
- casca 14y ago
  If they didn't have so much money then the reason would have been that they were strapped for capital. The nature of successful Kickstarter projects is that they are are solving hard problems. Hard problems are very difficult to estimate and the cost of being wrong on your time estimate is very low. So why would anyone not just provide an optimistic delivery date?
  - michaelbuckbee 14y ago
    Kickstarter is an interesting mix of promotion and distribution. Projects are seeking not just money, but to find an audience of evangelists and early adopters for their products. Delivery on time (by providing realistic estimates) can help make sure that people don't turn on the project and start generating negative publicity about the project.
  - tjic 14y ago
    > The nature of successful Kickstarter projects is that they are are solving hard problems. Not sure I agree with that.
- ChuckMcM 14y ago
  It is sort of buried, at one of my startups we made a 1U server that went into the phone closet, we found a place in Milpitas that could make us 20 - 30 at a time, and then when we started growing and needed 100 at a time they basically told us "No, we can't do that." That was my first experience with a manufacturer where I got to see what it was that making 100 changed vs making 20. In our case it was mostly all of the various parts that came from different places, so you needed to stage a bunch of things and that difference in delivery times meant that to build a 100 reliably for some components you were holding on to stock of like 500 of other things. That tied up a tremendous amount of money, and the risk was if something went wrong you might have parts to make 80% of 500 things but not the same 80%! It was maddening, and very complex. We had a gal whose job it was was to talk to suppliers basically all day every day and help get things 'kitted'.
  - potatolicious 14y ago
    This is why I'm very, very skeptical about hardware Kickstarters by people who have never shipped hardware. Manufacturing is a hugely complicated endeavor that outsiders like to trivialize ("I bet it cost $1 in China!"), and ambitious entrepreneurs like to underestimate. It's the same reason I didn't fund Ouya - I didn't see anyone on the team who has actually successfully shipped a hardware product. It's the same reason I did fund Pebble, because they have, albeit on a much smaller scale. This shit is hard, and people need to realize this.
    - endersshadow 14y ago
      Manufacturing and supply chain is one of the most complicated processes that occurs at businesses, by and large. We're talking about logistics to get your stuff to the warehouse, storing said inventory, monitoring inventory levels to know when to order, manufacturing goods that take time, then storing the finished goods until they can be shipped, and finally, sending them on their way. I've seen companies from all walks of life, and manufacturing goods is by far the most complicated process I've ever had to dive into. People think it's easy because it's simple on the small scale. There's nothing I know of that's harder to scale than manufacturing operations.
    - 14y ago
- MrFoof 14y ago
  > It took off, raising vastly more money than they anticipated -- and obliterating the original production plans and timeline I wonder if Kickstarter allowed projects to set a maximum number of backers (or a funding cap), if projects would take advantage of it. Honestly, such a move wouldn't help Kickstarter (fewer fees to collect), so I'd have my doubts that such an option would be offered. Even if it were, I wonder how many teams are aware enough of their limits to take advantage of such an option.
  - adriano_f 14y ago
    I agree. I think picking the "top 50" projects is just asking for trouble. Those are victims of their success, and have to scale from 0 to mass production on a tight schedule. Going from zero to a few hundred early adopters is much more feasible.
  - binarycrusader 14y ago
    "I wonder if Kickstarter allowed projects to set a maximum number of backers (or a funding cap), if projects would take advantage of it" They do; kickstarter project teams can set a cap on each individual tier they offer. However, most projects foolishly have chosen to not place caps on anything except the most "exclusive" tiers -- those that usually offer a chance to name something in a game, or a custom character representing them, a flight to some faraway place to meet the developers, etc. for thousands of dollars. If the tier involves a tangible product, then there should always be a cap. And most of the software projects I've seen should at least triple their estimated project completion time if they haven't started yet or aren't at least "50%" complete.
simcop2387 14y ago
That's what I figure it is, just take a look at the filabot [1]. It's taken in far far longer than anticipated but he's still keeping at it, just sent another update today. I would be very surprised if this wasn't the cause of most of it, with another big cause being the ones that end up getting far more attention than expected, needing to ramp up manufacturing to a level they didn't even consider possible (i.e. printrbot [2]) at the time. [1] http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/rocknail/filabot-plastic-filament-maker?ref=live http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/rocknail/filabot-plastic... [2] http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/printrbot/printrbot-your-first-3d-printer?ref=live http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/printrbot/printrbot-your...

by casca 14y ago

rm999 14y ago

This part: > Why are so many crowdfunded projects blowing their deadlines? >Over and over in our interviews, the same pattern emerged. A team of ambitious but inexperienced creators launched a project that they expected would attract a few hundred backers. It took off, raising vastly more money than they anticipated -- and obliterating the original production plans and timeline

casca 14y ago
If they didn't have so much money then the reason would have been that they were strapped for capital. The nature of successful Kickstarter projects is that they are are solving hard problems. Hard problems are very difficult to estimate and the cost of being wrong on your time estimate is very low. So why would anyone not just provide an optimistic delivery date?
- michaelbuckbee 14y ago
  Kickstarter is an interesting mix of promotion and distribution. Projects are seeking not just money, but to find an audience of evangelists and early adopters for their products. Delivery on time (by providing realistic estimates) can help make sure that people don't turn on the project and start generating negative publicity about the project.
- tjic 14y ago
  > The nature of successful Kickstarter projects is that they are are solving hard problems. Not sure I agree with that.
ChuckMcM 14y ago
It is sort of buried, at one of my startups we made a 1U server that went into the phone closet, we found a place in Milpitas that could make us 20 - 30 at a time, and then when we started growing and needed 100 at a time they basically told us "No, we can't do that." That was my first experience with a manufacturer where I got to see what it was that making 100 changed vs making 20. In our case it was mostly all of the various parts that came from different places, so you needed to stage a bunch of things and that difference in delivery times meant that to build a 100 reliably for some components you were holding on to stock of like 500 of other things. That tied up a tremendous amount of money, and the risk was if something went wrong you might have parts to make 80% of 500 things but not the same 80%! It was maddening, and very complex. We had a gal whose job it was was to talk to suppliers basically all day every day and help get things 'kitted'.
- potatolicious 14y ago
  This is why I'm very, very skeptical about hardware Kickstarters by people who have never shipped hardware. Manufacturing is a hugely complicated endeavor that outsiders like to trivialize ("I bet it cost $1 in China!"), and ambitious entrepreneurs like to underestimate. It's the same reason I didn't fund Ouya - I didn't see anyone on the team who has actually successfully shipped a hardware product. It's the same reason I did fund Pebble, because they have, albeit on a much smaller scale. This shit is hard, and people need to realize this.
  - endersshadow 14y ago
    Manufacturing and supply chain is one of the most complicated processes that occurs at businesses, by and large. We're talking about logistics to get your stuff to the warehouse, storing said inventory, monitoring inventory levels to know when to order, manufacturing goods that take time, then storing the finished goods until they can be shipped, and finally, sending them on their way. I've seen companies from all walks of life, and manufacturing goods is by far the most complicated process I've ever had to dive into. People think it's easy because it's simple on the small scale. There's nothing I know of that's harder to scale than manufacturing operations.
  - 14y ago
MrFoof 14y ago
> It took off, raising vastly more money than they anticipated -- and obliterating the original production plans and timeline I wonder if Kickstarter allowed projects to set a maximum number of backers (or a funding cap), if projects would take advantage of it. Honestly, such a move wouldn't help Kickstarter (fewer fees to collect), so I'd have my doubts that such an option would be offered. Even if it were, I wonder how many teams are aware enough of their limits to take advantage of such an option.
- adriano_f 14y ago
  I agree. I think picking the "top 50" projects is just asking for trouble. Those are victims of their success, and have to scale from 0 to mass production on a tight schedule. Going from zero to a few hundred early adopters is much more feasible.
- binarycrusader 14y ago
  "I wonder if Kickstarter allowed projects to set a maximum number of backers (or a funding cap), if projects would take advantage of it" They do; kickstarter project teams can set a cap on each individual tier they offer. However, most projects foolishly have chosen to not place caps on anything except the most "exclusive" tiers -- those that usually offer a chance to name something in a game, or a custom character representing them, a flight to some faraway place to meet the developers, etc. for thousands of dollars. If the tier involves a tangible product, then there should always be a cap. And most of the software projects I've seen should at least triple their estimated project completion time if they haven't started yet or aren't at least "50%" complete.

simcop2387 14y ago

That's what I figure it is, just take a look at the filabot [1]. It's taken in far far longer than anticipated but he's still keeping at it, just sent another update today. I would be very surprised if this wasn't the cause of most of it, with another big cause being the ones that end up getting far more attention than expected, needing to ramp up manufacturing to a level they didn't even consider possible (i.e. printrbot [2]) at the time. [1] http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/rocknail/filabot-plastic-filament-maker?ref=live http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/rocknail/filabot-plastic... [2] http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/printrbot/printrbot-your-first-3d-printer?ref=live http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/printrbot/printrbot-your...