8 ms·

How accurate are Americans at estimating calories?

37 points by ckelly 14y ago

KeliNorth 14y ago
Recently the places I've lived have all had calorie counts on menus. It's very helpful. That way, when presented with a choice between a 400 calorie meal for $10 and a 1200 calorie meal for $10, I know which one will give me more calorie for my buck. Yes, some of us use it to get more calories, not less. It's just far too helpful to know exactly how many calories you're getting. It's not just for people dieting or wanting to eat less.
- sliverstorm 14y ago
  Yup, I'm in this boat! I regularly use the calorie count to maximize my Cal/$. I have a hard time keeping weight on.
- parfe 14y ago
  >Recently the places I've lived have all had calorie counts on menus. The Affordable Care Act required displaying calorie counts across the entire United States. http://www.fda.gov/food/labelingnutrition/ucm217762.htm http://www.fda.gov/food/labelingnutrition/ucm217762.htm Wasn't a coincidence you saw those counts in all the recent places you've lived (assuming you live in the US).
wpietri 14y ago
Sigh. The OK Cupid "Let's look at the data" posts were so great that it's depressing to see other companies try to get attention by half-assing their way through a little research and coming up with a surprising conclusion. Protip: When the conclusions of your amateur study contradict a peer-reviewed study done by professionals, your first thought should not be: gosh, those eggheads were wrong! Instead it's time to re-check your study design.
Roybatty 14y ago
What "we need" is oversight by another federal government agency that can issue us smart cards that are mandated by grocery stores and will help us in deciding what we can buy and how much. I hear Michael Bloomberg has already invested in a startup.
stephengillie 14y ago
Sure, these probably aren't necessary for people whose parents taught them proper portion size and diet control. But some of us grew up with parents who still fight eating disorders. Two tools were instrumental in teaching myself how much to eat: 1. Calorie counting app. I use MyFitness daily and record everything in it. The app gives me one number -- how many calories are remaining for today -- on which I can focus and remember. Other apps are probably as good, I've never tried. This really helped me learn how to control my portions and stay honest with myself. 2. Calorie counts on menus. When looking at fast food, I'll remember how many calories are remaining for today, and I'll often change my choices. I've chosen the 300-calorie cheeseburger over the 600-calorie double cheeseburger many times, mostly because the difference was listed on the menu. One of my goals was to change how I thought about food -- instead of being a magic elixir, it became a game: I have 2000 calories to spend today, but if I spend 600 calories on this burger, I won't be able to afford the 400 calories of beer I want to drink tonight. This is because I've already budgeted 1600 calories across my other meals. I've lost 80 lbs this way and maintained this lower weight for months.
- CodeCube 14y ago
  Congrats on meeting your goals!
- bjourne 14y ago
  That sounds like a great idea and I've been looking for something similar to try and lose weight. But if you eat out a lot and the calorie count is not written on the menue, how are you going to record it? For example, if you order chicken with rice, that may be a fairly healthy choice except if there's to much cream and butter in the sauce. Eating healthy definitely is hard. Also can you link to the app? My google-fu is failing me.
  - streptomycin 14y ago
    Calorie estimates are never perfect, but a rough estimate is much better than nothing.
  - deleted 14y ago
    [deleted]
indiecore 14y ago
This would be insanely helpful for those of us who are cutting/bulking and want to keep track of exact amounts. Even better would be listing macro-nutrients along with the calorie count.
- CodeCube 14y ago
  But at that point it becomes a UX issue. There's only so much space on a printed menu. Calories are an easy to print, single data point.
  - indiecore 14y ago
    QR codes? "For nutritional information check our website or scan this [qr code]"
    - CodeCube 14y ago
      Maybe .. but I can't imagine anyone sitting there designing a menu to actually say to themselves, "you know what would look awesome repeated on every line and column of this menu? 32 QR codes!"
      - indiecore 14y ago
        Well I was thinking ONE QR on the back of the menu that takes you to a search or something. Obviously not for everyone but I know that I'd appreciate it.
alxndr 14y ago
"Estimates for fast food calories were significantly misguided – but in both directions! Apparently we have been misled by those oh-so-catchy jingles." So, the short answer is: Yes.
gav 14y ago
Living in NYC I've definitely appreciated seeing the number of calories on the menu; I'd like to see it everywhere and not just chains. I'm much more likely to order something with a lower amount of calories. If there are three choices: 400, 600, and 800 calories, I'll pick the middle and feel better about the choice. I now know that a large combo meal at McDonalds is easily 3/4 of what my daily intake would be. Secondly, it shows up the hidden calories. How many people realize that the 20oz of soda with their meal adds an addition 200-250 calories? Or that an venti eggnog latte at Starbucks is a scary 610 calories. I think restaurants are a big culprit. You have no idea how good or bad the food you are ordering is.
- treerock 14y ago
  One concern may be how easy would it be for a small restaurant to do this? Large chains with highly standardised processes probably have this information to hand. But for small restaurants, even if they analysed every meal before putting it on the menu, how do you know the chef wasn't a bit heavy handed with the cream that day. The differences may be small enough to be negligible, but it could still be costly for small restaurants that are already operating under tight margins.
jakubp 14y ago
What is the purpose of calorie counting for humans exactly? Most people don't get fat/slim/strong/weak because they ate too much/too little [calories]. It's what you eat.
- Adirael 14y ago
  You eat X calories, you use Y calories. If X > Y most of the difference is stored (as fat), if Y > X your body burn the energy stored (fat, at some point, but it depends). It's simple math and it's scientifically proven. 2000 kcal are 2000kcal, it doesn't matter if they come from a single burger or 10kg of lettuce. It's not what you eat, it is how much you eat.
  - indiecore 14y ago
    To be fair a lot of people are REALLY bad a measuring and estimating both how much they eat and how much they exercise.
    - Adirael 14y ago
      True, but having calorie counters on the menu helps. People doesn't realize a frappuccino has 600 cals
  - UnFleshedOne 14y ago
    I'd say it does matter, 10 kg of lettuce will take forever to digest and will require way more energy. Individual metabolism quirks will also affect how much of it comes out of the other end relatively intact.
    - Adirael 14y ago
      It doesn't matter, you are just burning more calories in the digestion process but it's still an in vs out operation. We are not perfect machines, but we are very efficient.
- johnward 14y ago
rb2k_ 14y ago
Calories help, but especially for high-fat, low-carb diets they are pretty useless (see http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4892592 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4892592 )
holri 14y ago
What is really underestimated and forgotten are the calories of the daily casually snacks and drinks.
drx 14y ago
Interesting to see some evidence for my anecdotal experience that people severely overestimate McDonald's calorie counts (not to mention unhealthiness). People look at me like I'm a crazy person when I tell them you could eat 4 cheeseburgers a day and still lose weight (provided you don't each much else, granted, but still). I wonder if McDonald's ever ran any research on whether trying to reanchor their food as healthy would boost or hurt their sales.
- ssharp 14y ago
  Two points: 1) The minute your food touches a deep fryer, I think all bets on accurate estimates are off. My guess is that people don't know how much worse fried chicken sandwiches are for you compared to grilled chicken. A big part of fast food is deep fried french fries, which are mostly sold in "large" sizes due to value meals. There is also the soda element. I don't think most people realize how many calories are in the soda they get at fast food places, again, most likely in a "large" size. 2) A cheeseburger from McDonald's isn't that bad. But sandwiches like burgers have lots of ways to start pilling up the calories. Add an extra slice of cheese, toss on some mayonaise, maybe a little bacon. Pretty soon, you're hitting or going past the 1k calorie level. So yes, a cheeseburger from McDonald's isn't that a bad (300 calories). A Angus Bacon Burger with large fries and a coke is a pretty bad meal (1600 calories).
jonathanmoore 14y ago
Having a calorie count on the menu is helpful. The state of California started requiring this a few years ago and it has influenced what I order. As an example, before the calorie count I would occasionally go for a tuna sandwich at Subway. I knew that the sandwich wasn't a healthy choice, but after seeing 1,000+ calories next to it on the menu I stopped ordering it. When you see items on the menu in the 1,000+ range and others half of that for the same portion it should influence your chooses.
R_Edward 14y ago
Calorie counts on menus is a good start, but it's not enough. It doesn't mean anything to the average American consumer that there are 1800 calories in that Starbuck's Mochaccino he just bought. Contextualize it with an Ad Council campaign to tell people that sedentary middle-aged people (for example) need to consume roughly 10 calories daily per pound of weight they want to maintain. You weigh 180? And you just bought that 1800-calorie candy coffee? Congratulations! you've achieved your maintenance goal for today. Any further calories you consume will be added to your waistline at 3500 calories per pound. Then remind everyone that a sedentary lifestyle is a choice, and not a very wise one at that. Get your cardio on, and you'll burn through those excess pounds. Maybe even enable yourself to have something besides a Mochaccino each day. Get some resistance training going, and you'll need to ramp your daily intake up just to maintain all that lean muscle mass. Of course, your mileage may vary; insult a doctor before beginning any weight-loss regimen; and if it hurts when you do that, don't do that.
- lrm242 14y ago
  Exactly. Few people understand what their calorie budget is and have no way to relate their intact decisions to that budget. Losing weight is simple: eat less than what your body needs to maintain itself. In doing so your body will pull from the energy reserves that it has (fat and muscle) to make up the difference.
  - legitsource 14y ago
    Knowing what to do and doing it are very different things. It took a major macronutrient shift after at least a year of trying to diet and failing before I finally got on my way to losing weight. I knew I was done for the day, but boredom, stress, and hunger made it only a matter of time before I would crack. A week of eating well, then cracking and eating anything I could get my hands on, then repeat.
calinet6 14y ago
See that gigantic logo at the top of the page that says "Survata"—it should be a link to your main web site. In fact, such a link does not exist anywhere on your blog. You need to add one, or a few if possible. Jesus. You'd think this was rocket surgery or something.
deleted 14y ago
[deleted]
- michaelt 14y ago
  According to [1] the 6" subway Tuna sandwich has 470 calories. Assuming the footlong has twice as many calories that's 940 calories. [1] http://www.subway.com/nutrition/nutritionlist.aspx http://www.subway.com/nutrition/nutritionlist.aspx
  - fruchtose 14y ago
    That is correct. I can see I was mistaken.
- deleted 14y ago
  [deleted]
stcredzero 14y ago
1) estimate calories 2) add them up to too much 3) eat anyway and enjoy 4) drive back and resume sedentary lifestyle
debacle 14y ago
This article is rife with boloney statistical analysis and hand-waving, comes to conflicting conclusions at different points in the article, and really doesn't say anything.
- ckelly 14y ago
  Hi, OP here. We love feedback on our posts, so happy to hear your thoughts on conflicting conclusions - either here or at contact@survata.com. Thanks.
  - debacle 14y ago
    I'm glad that you collected this kind of statistical data - it's important, because caloric intake can really be misjudged (even if you are using a calculator). I'd probably ask that you provide the data, so a better statistical analysis can be done on it than what was provided, and also that, in the future, you present statistics more scientifically. As others have noted, there seems to be some discrepancies with your reported calorie counts and what companies have reported - you should also address those.
    - ckelly 14y ago
      Thanks. We did include both the raw data and calorie count references[1] in the footnotes in the original article. We also encourage you to play around with the data in Statwing [2]. Appreciate the feedback and curious what else you can find in the data! [1] http://bit.ly/U6JQ5c http://bit.ly/U6JQ5c [2] http://bit.ly/SMPeMZ http://bit.ly/SMPeMZ
jaredsohn 14y ago
A good resource for understanding calories and their effect on weight: http://www.reddit.com/help/faqs/Fitness http://www.reddit.com/help/faqs/Fitness

37 points by ckelly 14y ago

Recently the places I've lived have all had calorie counts on menus. It's very helpful. That way, when presented with a choice between a 400 calorie meal for $10 and a 1200 calorie meal for $10, I know which one will give me more calorie for my buck. Yes, some of us use it to get more calories, not less. It's just far too helpful to know exactly how many calories you're getting. It's not just for people dieting or wanting to eat less.

sliverstorm 14y ago
Yup, I'm in this boat! I regularly use the calorie count to maximize my Cal/$. I have a hard time keeping weight on.
parfe 14y ago
>Recently the places I've lived have all had calorie counts on menus. The Affordable Care Act required displaying calorie counts across the entire United States. http://www.fda.gov/food/labelingnutrition/ucm217762.htm http://www.fda.gov/food/labelingnutrition/ucm217762.htm Wasn't a coincidence you saw those counts in all the recent places you've lived (assuming you live in the US).

wpietri 14y ago

Sigh. The OK Cupid "Let's look at the data" posts were so great that it's depressing to see other companies try to get attention by half-assing their way through a little research and coming up with a surprising conclusion. Protip: When the conclusions of your amateur study contradict a peer-reviewed study done by professionals, your first thought should not be: gosh, those eggheads were wrong! Instead it's time to re-check your study design.

Roybatty 14y ago

What "we need" is oversight by another federal government agency that can issue us smart cards that are mandated by grocery stores and will help us in deciding what we can buy and how much. I hear Michael Bloomberg has already invested in a startup.

stephengillie 14y ago

Sure, these probably aren't necessary for people whose parents taught them proper portion size and diet control. But some of us grew up with parents who still fight eating disorders. Two tools were instrumental in teaching myself how much to eat: 1. Calorie counting app. I use MyFitness daily and record everything in it. The app gives me one number -- how many calories are remaining for today -- on which I can focus and remember. Other apps are probably as good, I've never tried. This really helped me learn how to control my portions and stay honest with myself. 2. Calorie counts on menus. When looking at fast food, I'll remember how many calories are remaining for today, and I'll often change my choices. I've chosen the 300-calorie cheeseburger over the 600-calorie double cheeseburger many times, mostly because the difference was listed on the menu. One of my goals was to change how I thought about food -- instead of being a magic elixir, it became a game: I have 2000 calories to spend today, but if I spend 600 calories on this burger, I won't be able to afford the 400 calories of beer I want to drink tonight. This is because I've already budgeted 1600 calories across my other meals. I've lost 80 lbs this way and maintained this lower weight for months.

CodeCube 14y ago
Congrats on meeting your goals!
bjourne 14y ago
That sounds like a great idea and I've been looking for something similar to try and lose weight. But if you eat out a lot and the calorie count is not written on the menue, how are you going to record it? For example, if you order chicken with rice, that may be a fairly healthy choice except if there's to much cream and butter in the sauce. Eating healthy definitely is hard. Also can you link to the app? My google-fu is failing me.
- streptomycin 14y ago
  Calorie estimates are never perfect, but a rough estimate is much better than nothing.
- deleted 14y ago
  [deleted]

indiecore 14y ago

This would be insanely helpful for those of us who are cutting/bulking and want to keep track of exact amounts. Even better would be listing macro-nutrients along with the calorie count.

CodeCube 14y ago
But at that point it becomes a UX issue. There's only so much space on a printed menu. Calories are an easy to print, single data point.
- indiecore 14y ago
  QR codes? "For nutritional information check our website or scan this [qr code]"
  - CodeCube 14y ago
    Maybe .. but I can't imagine anyone sitting there designing a menu to actually say to themselves, "you know what would look awesome repeated on every line and column of this menu? 32 QR codes!"
    - indiecore 14y ago
      Well I was thinking ONE QR on the back of the menu that takes you to a search or something. Obviously not for everyone but I know that I'd appreciate it.

alxndr 14y ago

"Estimates for fast food calories were significantly misguided – but in both directions! Apparently we have been misled by those oh-so-catchy jingles." So, the short answer is: Yes.

gav 14y ago

Living in NYC I've definitely appreciated seeing the number of calories on the menu; I'd like to see it everywhere and not just chains. I'm much more likely to order something with a lower amount of calories. If there are three choices: 400, 600, and 800 calories, I'll pick the middle and feel better about the choice. I now know that a large combo meal at McDonalds is easily 3/4 of what my daily intake would be. Secondly, it shows up the hidden calories. How many people realize that the 20oz of soda with their meal adds an addition 200-250 calories? Or that an venti eggnog latte at Starbucks is a scary 610 calories. I think restaurants are a big culprit. You have no idea how good or bad the food you are ordering is.

treerock 14y ago
One concern may be how easy would it be for a small restaurant to do this? Large chains with highly standardised processes probably have this information to hand. But for small restaurants, even if they analysed every meal before putting it on the menu, how do you know the chef wasn't a bit heavy handed with the cream that day. The differences may be small enough to be negligible, but it could still be costly for small restaurants that are already operating under tight margins.

jakubp 14y ago

What is the purpose of calorie counting for humans exactly? Most people don't get fat/slim/strong/weak because they ate too much/too little [calories]. It's what you eat.

Adirael 14y ago
You eat X calories, you use Y calories. If X > Y most of the difference is stored (as fat), if Y > X your body burn the energy stored (fat, at some point, but it depends). It's simple math and it's scientifically proven. 2000 kcal are 2000kcal, it doesn't matter if they come from a single burger or 10kg of lettuce. It's not what you eat, it is how much you eat.
- indiecore 14y ago
  To be fair a lot of people are REALLY bad a measuring and estimating both how much they eat and how much they exercise.
  - Adirael 14y ago
    True, but having calorie counters on the menu helps. People doesn't realize a frappuccino has 600 cals
- UnFleshedOne 14y ago
  I'd say it does matter, 10 kg of lettuce will take forever to digest and will require way more energy. Individual metabolism quirks will also affect how much of it comes out of the other end relatively intact.
  - Adirael 14y ago
    It doesn't matter, you are just burning more calories in the digestion process but it's still an in vs out operation. We are not perfect machines, but we are very efficient.
johnward 14y ago

rb2k_ 14y ago

Calories help, but especially for high-fat, low-carb diets they are pretty useless (see http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4892592 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4892592 )

holri 14y ago

What is really underestimated and forgotten are the calories of the daily casually snacks and drinks.

drx 14y ago

Interesting to see some evidence for my anecdotal experience that people severely overestimate McDonald's calorie counts (not to mention unhealthiness). People look at me like I'm a crazy person when I tell them you could eat 4 cheeseburgers a day and still lose weight (provided you don't each much else, granted, but still). I wonder if McDonald's ever ran any research on whether trying to reanchor their food as healthy would boost or hurt their sales.

ssharp 14y ago
Two points: 1) The minute your food touches a deep fryer, I think all bets on accurate estimates are off. My guess is that people don't know how much worse fried chicken sandwiches are for you compared to grilled chicken. A big part of fast food is deep fried french fries, which are mostly sold in "large" sizes due to value meals. There is also the soda element. I don't think most people realize how many calories are in the soda they get at fast food places, again, most likely in a "large" size. 2) A cheeseburger from McDonald's isn't that bad. But sandwiches like burgers have lots of ways to start pilling up the calories. Add an extra slice of cheese, toss on some mayonaise, maybe a little bacon. Pretty soon, you're hitting or going past the 1k calorie level. So yes, a cheeseburger from McDonald's isn't that a bad (300 calories). A Angus Bacon Burger with large fries and a coke is a pretty bad meal (1600 calories).

jonathanmoore 14y ago

Having a calorie count on the menu is helpful. The state of California started requiring this a few years ago and it has influenced what I order. As an example, before the calorie count I would occasionally go for a tuna sandwich at Subway. I knew that the sandwich wasn't a healthy choice, but after seeing 1,000+ calories next to it on the menu I stopped ordering it. When you see items on the menu in the 1,000+ range and others half of that for the same portion it should influence your chooses.

R_Edward 14y ago

Calorie counts on menus is a good start, but it's not enough. It doesn't mean anything to the average American consumer that there are 1800 calories in that Starbuck's Mochaccino he just bought. Contextualize it with an Ad Council campaign to tell people that sedentary middle-aged people (for example) need to consume roughly 10 calories daily per pound of weight they want to maintain. You weigh 180? And you just bought that 1800-calorie candy coffee? Congratulations! you've achieved your maintenance goal for today. Any further calories you consume will be added to your waistline at 3500 calories per pound. Then remind everyone that a sedentary lifestyle is a choice, and not a very wise one at that. Get your cardio on, and you'll burn through those excess pounds. Maybe even enable yourself to have something besides a Mochaccino each day. Get some resistance training going, and you'll need to ramp your daily intake up just to maintain all that lean muscle mass. Of course, your mileage may vary; insult a doctor before beginning any weight-loss regimen; and if it hurts when you do that, don't do that.

lrm242 14y ago
Exactly. Few people understand what their calorie budget is and have no way to relate their intact decisions to that budget. Losing weight is simple: eat less than what your body needs to maintain itself. In doing so your body will pull from the energy reserves that it has (fat and muscle) to make up the difference.
- legitsource 14y ago
  Knowing what to do and doing it are very different things. It took a major macronutrient shift after at least a year of trying to diet and failing before I finally got on my way to losing weight. I knew I was done for the day, but boredom, stress, and hunger made it only a matter of time before I would crack. A week of eating well, then cracking and eating anything I could get my hands on, then repeat.

calinet6 14y ago

See that gigantic logo at the top of the page that says "Survata"—it should be a link to your main web site. In fact, such a link does not exist anywhere on your blog. You need to add one, or a few if possible. Jesus. You'd think this was rocket surgery or something.

deleted 14y ago

[deleted]

michaelt 14y ago
According to [1] the 6" subway Tuna sandwich has 470 calories. Assuming the footlong has twice as many calories that's 940 calories. [1] http://www.subway.com/nutrition/nutritionlist.aspx http://www.subway.com/nutrition/nutritionlist.aspx
- fruchtose 14y ago
  That is correct. I can see I was mistaken.
deleted 14y ago
[deleted]

stcredzero 14y ago

1) estimate calories 2) add them up to too much 3) eat anyway and enjoy 4) drive back and resume sedentary lifestyle

debacle 14y ago

This article is rife with boloney statistical analysis and hand-waving, comes to conflicting conclusions at different points in the article, and really doesn't say anything.

ckelly 14y ago
Hi, OP here. We love feedback on our posts, so happy to hear your thoughts on conflicting conclusions - either here or at contact@survata.com. Thanks.
- debacle 14y ago
  I'm glad that you collected this kind of statistical data - it's important, because caloric intake can really be misjudged (even if you are using a calculator). I'd probably ask that you provide the data, so a better statistical analysis can be done on it than what was provided, and also that, in the future, you present statistics more scientifically. As others have noted, there seems to be some discrepancies with your reported calorie counts and what companies have reported - you should also address those.
  - ckelly 14y ago
    Thanks. We did include both the raw data and calorie count references[1] in the footnotes in the original article. We also encourage you to play around with the data in Statwing [2]. Appreciate the feedback and curious what else you can find in the data! [1] http://bit.ly/U6JQ5c http://bit.ly/U6JQ5c [2] http://bit.ly/SMPeMZ http://bit.ly/SMPeMZ

jaredsohn 14y ago

A good resource for understanding calories and their effect on weight: http://www.reddit.com/help/faqs/Fitness http://www.reddit.com/help/faqs/Fitness