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The valuations of the hyperscalars won't sustain just being more efficient than something you can run locally. There's a market there, but it's for margin on a

The valuations of the hyperscalars won't sustain just being more efficient than something you can run locally. There's a market there, but it's for margin on a commodity. They're priced for oligopoly on unique, premium products.

phoghed 2mo ago
I very much don’t want to run it locally. I want the same one running somewhere else that I can interact with from all my devices. Look at something like Grok Bot. Nobody is going to run this locally. You can already self host almost anything, yet most people and businesses don’t.
- IsTom 2mo ago
  Yes, but that's not a 10T business.
  - bryanlarsen 2mo ago
    But it is quite likely a 1T market. That won't support the stock valuations of OpenAI, Anthropic or Nvidia, but it will still mean massive data center build out and little relief to RAM prices.
- esseph 2mo ago
  > I very much don’t want to run it locally. I want the same one running somewhere else that I can interact with from all my devices. I run models on my desktop and access them from a phone app on the go. Wireguard tunnel. Responds fast and lets me kick off tasks or workflows via text or voice.
  - phoghed 2mo ago
    Exactly the type of thing I’d pay someone not to deal with. It’s like media streaming vs piracy. Even though I could get a nice local setup with plex and have higher quality streams with free pirated br rips, I just don’t want to deal with it. Maybe I could use codex or whatever to set that all up nowadays, but it was such a pain doing the initial setup and getting it all running and finding sources of media yadda yadda like a decade ago when I last tried lol
    - esseph 2mo ago
      > Exactly the type of thing I’d pay someone not to deal with. Very much a personality and/or lifestyle thing, but I've also been building infra for decades. I mean it was two container startups and a phone app download (10min). Not exactly difficult. If I didn't like it I certainly wouldn't be in tech! > pay someone I'd do that with something like 3 story roof work or foundation work with a contractor, but tech? If I want the outcome I will be happy with, often have to do it myself.
      - phoghed 2mo ago
        To be clear I don’t mean pay someone to set it up for me, but rather pay for a saas platform that’s already doing it. It’s not that I couldn’t run something locally, I just don’t want to deal with the hassle. I was into home automation and self hosting media and some other stuff for a while. It’s the kind of thing I’d only do again if i was equally or more interested in the process than the outcome.
        esseph 2mo ago
        > To be clear I don’t mean pay someone to set it up for me, but rather pay for a saas platform that’s already doing it. We're looking for different outcomes. I am also looking to actively cut my SaaS / services cost to $0 or near $0. I don't want another company touching my fucking data or prompts.
- analognoise 2mo ago
  I want the model running wherever electricity and infra is cheapest, which will likely be China; if that gets geopolitically hot, eh, suddenly a “nearby” data center will open run by “individuals” with “no connections”, magically - it will be very funny to watch. There will be some “rising star” businessperson who somehow got an amazing deal on land and energy and just likes to spend 1/2 their time in Shenzhen or something, but the datacenter is in Vietnam or Singapore or Thailand or wherever. They might even have a US branch, to make everyone feel better! It will collapse the market, and everyone will realize that data centers are actually worth LESS than Toyota - they’ll look more like Tulips, suddenly. In my opinion, of course.
- matheusmoreira 2mo ago
  > Nobody is going to run this locally. I'm absolutely going to run this localy if I can. The only reason I'm not doing it is the fact I'm literally priced out.
- grokboard 1mo ago
  [dead]
slfnflctd 2mo ago
Yes, it's all about the amount of money invested right now. Justifying that was always going to be tricky, and it still is. The compute capacity, however, is here to stay. There will be a seemingly endless line of people queued up to buy it at pennies on the dollar if this whole thing blows up financially. And they will use it!
- classified 2mo ago
  > And they will use it! Just out of curiosity: Use it for what?
  - slfnflctd 2mo ago
    Whatever it is suited for that they can get a decent margin on. Or, you know, hobbies. The demand is there and the market will find pricing that works.
    - pezezin 2mo ago
      Do you really think any hobbyist is going to run a 200 kW liquid-cooled rack?
      - slfnflctd 1mo ago
        I was thinking more about parts and pieces of what runs in that rack for hobbyists. Or they'd be part of the customer base for leasing compute from someone else who bought the rack. Although there is such a thing as hobbyists with a ton of money who want to experiment with large models on enterprise grade hardware. Probably not a lot of those, though, of course.
  - ForHackernews 1mo ago
    Mining $FARTCOIN
- ForHackernews 2mo ago
  Indeed, "pennies on the dollar" is the key point the author is making in this article.
deleted 2mo ago
[deleted]

phoghed 2mo ago

I very much don’t want to run it locally. I want the same one running somewhere else that I can interact with from all my devices. Look at something like Grok Bot. Nobody is going to run this locally. You can already self host almost anything, yet most people and businesses don’t.

IsTom 2mo ago
Yes, but that's not a 10T business.
- bryanlarsen 2mo ago
  But it is quite likely a 1T market. That won't support the stock valuations of OpenAI, Anthropic or Nvidia, but it will still mean massive data center build out and little relief to RAM prices.
esseph 2mo ago
> I very much don’t want to run it locally. I want the same one running somewhere else that I can interact with from all my devices. I run models on my desktop and access them from a phone app on the go. Wireguard tunnel. Responds fast and lets me kick off tasks or workflows via text or voice.
- phoghed 2mo ago
  Exactly the type of thing I’d pay someone not to deal with. It’s like media streaming vs piracy. Even though I could get a nice local setup with plex and have higher quality streams with free pirated br rips, I just don’t want to deal with it. Maybe I could use codex or whatever to set that all up nowadays, but it was such a pain doing the initial setup and getting it all running and finding sources of media yadda yadda like a decade ago when I last tried lol
  - esseph 2mo ago
    > Exactly the type of thing I’d pay someone not to deal with. Very much a personality and/or lifestyle thing, but I've also been building infra for decades. I mean it was two container startups and a phone app download (10min). Not exactly difficult. If I didn't like it I certainly wouldn't be in tech! > pay someone I'd do that with something like 3 story roof work or foundation work with a contractor, but tech? If I want the outcome I will be happy with, often have to do it myself.
    - phoghed 2mo ago
      To be clear I don’t mean pay someone to set it up for me, but rather pay for a saas platform that’s already doing it. It’s not that I couldn’t run something locally, I just don’t want to deal with the hassle. I was into home automation and self hosting media and some other stuff for a while. It’s the kind of thing I’d only do again if i was equally or more interested in the process than the outcome.
      - esseph 2mo ago
        > To be clear I don’t mean pay someone to set it up for me, but rather pay for a saas platform that’s already doing it. We're looking for different outcomes. I am also looking to actively cut my SaaS / services cost to $0 or near $0. I don't want another company touching my fucking data or prompts.
analognoise 2mo ago
I want the model running wherever electricity and infra is cheapest, which will likely be China; if that gets geopolitically hot, eh, suddenly a “nearby” data center will open run by “individuals” with “no connections”, magically - it will be very funny to watch. There will be some “rising star” businessperson who somehow got an amazing deal on land and energy and just likes to spend 1/2 their time in Shenzhen or something, but the datacenter is in Vietnam or Singapore or Thailand or wherever. They might even have a US branch, to make everyone feel better! It will collapse the market, and everyone will realize that data centers are actually worth LESS than Toyota - they’ll look more like Tulips, suddenly. In my opinion, of course.
matheusmoreira 2mo ago
> Nobody is going to run this locally. I'm absolutely going to run this localy if I can. The only reason I'm not doing it is the fact I'm literally priced out.
grokboard 1mo ago
[dead]

slfnflctd 2mo ago

Yes, it's all about the amount of money invested right now. Justifying that was always going to be tricky, and it still is. The compute capacity, however, is here to stay. There will be a seemingly endless line of people queued up to buy it at pennies on the dollar if this whole thing blows up financially. And they will use it!

classified 2mo ago
> And they will use it! Just out of curiosity: Use it for what?
- slfnflctd 2mo ago
  Whatever it is suited for that they can get a decent margin on. Or, you know, hobbies. The demand is there and the market will find pricing that works.
  - pezezin 2mo ago
    Do you really think any hobbyist is going to run a 200 kW liquid-cooled rack?
    - slfnflctd 1mo ago
      I was thinking more about parts and pieces of what runs in that rack for hobbyists. Or they'd be part of the customer base for leasing compute from someone else who bought the rack. Although there is such a thing as hobbyists with a ton of money who want to experiment with large models on enterprise grade hardware. Probably not a lot of those, though, of course.
- ForHackernews 1mo ago
  Mining $FARTCOIN
ForHackernews 2mo ago
Indeed, "pennies on the dollar" is the key point the author is making in this article.

deleted 2mo ago

[deleted]