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I guess the corollary to this is that the more money you have, the less efficient you can convert money to tangible wealth (there's an actual studied conversio

I guess the corollary to this is that the more money you have, the less efficient you can convert money to tangible wealth (there's an actual studied conversion 'factor' for different kinds of wealth).

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toomuchtodo 2mo ago
Wealth, in financial theory, is the present value of all expected future cash flows an individual or asset can generate over time, discounted back to today's value using a specific rate of return. It measures accumulated economic potential rather than just cash in hand. Are there limits to future economic potential? I argue yes, it is a function of demographics, which are in structural decline. Therefore, I would agree it only becomes harder over time to chase after the current amount of total potential wealth, which will decline into the future. Terra Incognita: The Economics of a Shrinking World [pdf] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49352811 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49352811 - August 2026 > "As of 2026, humanity is likely below replacement fertility. That has never happened before, not in wars or pandemics. But the real surprise is that the fall has been concentrated in low- and middle-income countries and among poorer and less educated women. We fit a single-factor model to 236 countries since 1950: the common component peaked in 1978, and what drives fertility down today are country-specific trends, 219 of them negative and not one leveling off. None of the commonly cited mechanisms can account for this pattern, so we offer a conjecture: modernity itself, which makes a third child expensive and childlessness cheap. Children come in integers, so it takes very little to move a cohort’s fertility rate from 1.8 to 1.3. And nothing in an economy pushes fertility back to 2.1. We close with the main economic consequences, in particular slow growth." The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44866621 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44866621 - August 2025 (400 comments) (start at slide 31 of the pdf)

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toomuchtodo 2mo ago

Wealth, in financial theory, is the present value of all expected future cash flows an individual or asset can generate over time, discounted back to today's value using a specific rate of return. It measures accumulated economic potential rather than just cash in hand. Are there limits to future economic potential? I argue yes, it is a function of demographics, which are in structural decline. Therefore, I would agree it only becomes harder over time to chase after the current amount of total potential wealth, which will decline into the future. Terra Incognita: The Economics of a Shrinking World [pdf] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49352811 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49352811 - August 2026 > "As of 2026, humanity is likely below replacement fertility. That has never happened before, not in wars or pandemics. But the real surprise is that the fall has been concentrated in low- and middle-income countries and among poorer and less educated women. We fit a single-factor model to 236 countries since 1950: the common component peaked in 1978, and what drives fertility down today are country-specific trends, 219 of them negative and not one leveling off. None of the commonly cited mechanisms can account for this pattern, so we offer a conjecture: modernity itself, which makes a third child expensive and childlessness cheap. Children come in integers, so it takes very little to move a cohort’s fertility rate from 1.8 to 1.3. And nothing in an economy pushes fertility back to 2.1. We close with the main economic consequences, in particular slow growth." The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44866621 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44866621 - August 2025 (400 comments) (start at slide 31 of the pdf)