4 ms·

AMD along with cerebras may probably compete with NVIDIA monopoly in near future. Also, NVIDIA will have competition form multiple companies. Just my prediction

AMD along with cerebras may probably compete with NVIDIA monopoly in near future. Also, NVIDIA will have competition form multiple companies. Just my prediction.

eitally 2mo ago
Maybe, but GPU is just one aspect of NVIDIA's dominance. If you are buying Vera Rubin GPUs, you're getting an NVL72 rack, which is only one of several racks that you're probably buying. You'll also need your NVIDIA racks with NVIDIA networking & storage gear, too. At the end of the day, they're "vertically integrated" for your accelerated computing data center (e.g. the "AI Factory"). This doesn't even count the software layer, where CUDA + CUDA-X (not to mention the software for all the sysadmin pieces) has a huge first mover advantage over anyone else.
- zarzavat 2mo ago
  Is CUDA still a moat? Are we not at the point where frontier models can reimplement software stacks, given you throw enough tokens at the problem.
  - vatsachak 2mo ago
    You just proved that AI cannot currently do that
    - incrudible 2mo ago
      It can definitely create a software stack for you if you hold it right, but the software stack supported by a trillion dollar company with decades of expertise, that also uses AI to improve its stack is probably gonna be better.
      - tomrod 2mo ago
        On the reverse side, there are fundamental limits to the number of ways you can perform certain actions, and agents are both diligent as well as able to swarm. If you have your tests beforehand, there is a chance.
  - alightsoul 2mo ago
    if you are developing your own hardware, you provide your own stack to avoid lawsuits with nvidia. i don't think it's a technical problem at all, but a legal one. this is probably why zluda was scrapped by AMD and Intel. Nvidia technically bans the creation of CUDA reimplementations in their TOS if i remember correctly
    - zarzavat 2mo ago
      Doesn't Google v Oracle provide protection here? Copying APIs is fair use. If it's patents that are the problem then presumably all these large semiconductor companies have defensive parent portfolios.
      - alightsoul 2mo ago
        I don't know then, amd and Intel decided to get rid of Zluda before that lawsuit ruled that apis are fair use. And now, their cloud customers are ok with using their own stack such as rocm, and Intel got rid of their Garuda ai chips. Those things also happened before the lawsuit was settled It would be a breach of contract not a copyright issue.
    - sreekanth850 2mo ago
      [flagged]
  - fooker 2mo ago
    If you are making a decision to spend 50B on hardware, would you use the proven tech stack or rely on engineers taking an unspecified amount of time vibecoding your software stack while the hardware sits idle? How about in a month or so when you have to run a slightly different workload?
    - epolanski 2mo ago
      Hyper scalers like Google or Microsoft, which are the big spenders, have all the incentives in the world to get more out of their gargantuan spending. In fact both of them, actually Amazon too, invest in their own inference hardware and owns the stack. You can't possibly think that these companies will keep shelling 50-100B per year in hardware alone where 60%+ is margin for Nvidia and not invest there.
  - aurareturn 2mo ago
    You still need experts to know what is good and what is not.
  - someothherguyy 2mo ago
    i haven't seen it. see the recent browser attempts.
anonzzzies 2mo ago
Like NVIDIA bought Groq, AMD might do well buying Cerebras.
- sreekanth850 2mo ago
  They are Ex AMD employees. Nvidia tried back, but they rejected.
  - vezycash 2mo ago
    The rejection might be overrulled by investors if the offer is enticing enough.
- FranGro78 2mo ago
  AMD did enter into an agreement to buy Taalas, which is speculated [1] will be used to augment their Helios offering. 1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MKRjt59hh4&pp=0gcJCRMMAYcqIYzv https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MKRjt59hh4&pp=0gcJCRMMAYcqI...
_zoltan_ 2mo ago
Press doubt. Single GPU? Maybe. MultiGPU behemoths like NVL144 and NVL576? I don't think so. NVLink is at gen9. they had a lot of teething problems and can codesign the hardware and software. in the name of openness (AMD's only """weapon"""), the UALink spec is a hodgepodge of corporate opinions with very different implementations (looking at you, Broadcom). at spec version 1 (in hardware). I wish them good luck as I really like AMD, but they compete no more on this than Lambo vs Bugatti.
epolanski 2mo ago
It's not really a far fetched prediction: high margins and huge market attract competition, that's just the law of economics.

AMD along with cerebras may probably compete with NVIDIA monopoly in near future. Also, NVIDIA will have competition form multiple companies. Just my prediction.

eitally 2mo ago

Maybe, but GPU is just one aspect of NVIDIA's dominance. If you are buying Vera Rubin GPUs, you're getting an NVL72 rack, which is only one of several racks that you're probably buying. You'll also need your NVIDIA racks with NVIDIA networking & storage gear, too. At the end of the day, they're "vertically integrated" for your accelerated computing data center (e.g. the "AI Factory"). This doesn't even count the software layer, where CUDA + CUDA-X (not to mention the software for all the sysadmin pieces) has a huge first mover advantage over anyone else.

zarzavat 2mo ago
Is CUDA still a moat? Are we not at the point where frontier models can reimplement software stacks, given you throw enough tokens at the problem.
- vatsachak 2mo ago
  You just proved that AI cannot currently do that
  - incrudible 2mo ago
    It can definitely create a software stack for you if you hold it right, but the software stack supported by a trillion dollar company with decades of expertise, that also uses AI to improve its stack is probably gonna be better.
    - tomrod 2mo ago
      On the reverse side, there are fundamental limits to the number of ways you can perform certain actions, and agents are both diligent as well as able to swarm. If you have your tests beforehand, there is a chance.
- alightsoul 2mo ago
  if you are developing your own hardware, you provide your own stack to avoid lawsuits with nvidia. i don't think it's a technical problem at all, but a legal one. this is probably why zluda was scrapped by AMD and Intel. Nvidia technically bans the creation of CUDA reimplementations in their TOS if i remember correctly
  - zarzavat 2mo ago
    Doesn't Google v Oracle provide protection here? Copying APIs is fair use. If it's patents that are the problem then presumably all these large semiconductor companies have defensive parent portfolios.
    - alightsoul 2mo ago
      I don't know then, amd and Intel decided to get rid of Zluda before that lawsuit ruled that apis are fair use. And now, their cloud customers are ok with using their own stack such as rocm, and Intel got rid of their Garuda ai chips. Those things also happened before the lawsuit was settled It would be a breach of contract not a copyright issue.
  - sreekanth850 2mo ago
    [flagged]
- fooker 2mo ago
  If you are making a decision to spend 50B on hardware, would you use the proven tech stack or rely on engineers taking an unspecified amount of time vibecoding your software stack while the hardware sits idle? How about in a month or so when you have to run a slightly different workload?
  - epolanski 2mo ago
    Hyper scalers like Google or Microsoft, which are the big spenders, have all the incentives in the world to get more out of their gargantuan spending. In fact both of them, actually Amazon too, invest in their own inference hardware and owns the stack. You can't possibly think that these companies will keep shelling 50-100B per year in hardware alone where 60%+ is margin for Nvidia and not invest there.
- aurareturn 2mo ago
  You still need experts to know what is good and what is not.
- someothherguyy 2mo ago
  i haven't seen it. see the recent browser attempts.

anonzzzies 2mo ago

Like NVIDIA bought Groq, AMD might do well buying Cerebras.

sreekanth850 2mo ago
They are Ex AMD employees. Nvidia tried back, but they rejected.
- vezycash 2mo ago
  The rejection might be overrulled by investors if the offer is enticing enough.
FranGro78 2mo ago
AMD did enter into an agreement to buy Taalas, which is speculated [1] will be used to augment their Helios offering. 1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MKRjt59hh4&pp=0gcJCRMMAYcqIYzv https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MKRjt59hh4&pp=0gcJCRMMAYcqI...

_zoltan_ 2mo ago

Press doubt. Single GPU? Maybe. MultiGPU behemoths like NVL144 and NVL576? I don't think so. NVLink is at gen9. they had a lot of teething problems and can codesign the hardware and software. in the name of openness (AMD's only """weapon"""), the UALink spec is a hodgepodge of corporate opinions with very different implementations (looking at you, Broadcom). at spec version 1 (in hardware). I wish them good luck as I really like AMD, but they compete no more on this than Lambo vs Bugatti.

epolanski 2mo ago

It's not really a far fetched prediction: high margins and huge market attract competition, that's just the law of economics.