Yeah, I think this is the most defensible steelman of the concept: Incompetent people aren't deliberately sought out for promotions, but there is a disincentive

Yeah, I think this is the most defensible steelman of the concept: Incompetent people aren't deliberately sought out for promotions, but there is a disincentive to promote some of the most competent people. Sometimes. For some very context-dependent notions of "(in)competent."