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> The only argument I could entertain on this line of thought is that the US has reached it's peak (today) and may decline. That’s literally the point we are d

by hnlmorg 2mo ago

> The only argument I could entertain on this line of thought is that the US has reached it's peak (today) and may decline. That’s literally the point we are discussing ;) > An actual failure of a super power is britain. That's what it looks like when a super power has "lost" Yeah, Britain definitely falls into that category too. But it’s also worth noting that the empire was literally build from conquest and exploitation. Which brings me back to my previous comment about war.

johnsmith1840 2mo ago
Reasonable take then. You think oil, ai, space aren't the deciding factors of the next 50 years? An interesting argument against is maybe the big one is who can produce the most cheap robots and drones (China). It's unsure if that is decisive but it's clearly a big factor. Sure but so is every super power. The question to ask is the alternative. US is "nice" compared to previous powers in history. Even the British were "nice" for their time period. They ended slavery almost worldwide as easily the most obvious win. They did alot of good as well as sucking pretty hard, kinda philisophical question at that point though.
- hnlmorg 2mo ago
  If America had control over oil then there wouldn’t have been a war in Iran. Nor Venezuela. Western AI is a bubble. Whether it pops or just fizzles remains to be seen. I obviously hope for the latter. But either way it’s not sustainable in its current guise. Add to that Chinese models being an estimated 6 months behind American frontier models and European leaders agreeing the importance of domestic AI, I think you’ll find Americas ownership of AI will diminish. And if the current political climate is anything to go by, there are strong enough incentives not to ship data to American data centres that there might be real change over the coming decade. The space program is a bigger asset but that’s largely private and I wouldn’t bank on Musks loyalty. Europe is producing some high quality military drones too. It’s been well reported in the Ukraine war. Plus I personally know of someone who works in that specific industry. I’ll concede that it’s impossible to have any confidence in any geopolitical predictions given the current climate. But if I were a betting man, I’d bet against the current administration making America great again.

by hnlmorg 2mo ago

johnsmith1840 2mo ago

Reasonable take then. You think oil, ai, space aren't the deciding factors of the next 50 years? An interesting argument against is maybe the big one is who can produce the most cheap robots and drones (China). It's unsure if that is decisive but it's clearly a big factor. Sure but so is every super power. The question to ask is the alternative. US is "nice" compared to previous powers in history. Even the British were "nice" for their time period. They ended slavery almost worldwide as easily the most obvious win. They did alot of good as well as sucking pretty hard, kinda philisophical question at that point though.

hnlmorg 2mo ago
If America had control over oil then there wouldn’t have been a war in Iran. Nor Venezuela. Western AI is a bubble. Whether it pops or just fizzles remains to be seen. I obviously hope for the latter. But either way it’s not sustainable in its current guise. Add to that Chinese models being an estimated 6 months behind American frontier models and European leaders agreeing the importance of domestic AI, I think you’ll find Americas ownership of AI will diminish. And if the current political climate is anything to go by, there are strong enough incentives not to ship data to American data centres that there might be real change over the coming decade. The space program is a bigger asset but that’s largely private and I wouldn’t bank on Musks loyalty. Europe is producing some high quality military drones too. It’s been well reported in the Ukraine war. Plus I personally know of someone who works in that specific industry. I’ll concede that it’s impossible to have any confidence in any geopolitical predictions given the current climate. But if I were a betting man, I’d bet against the current administration making America great again.