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This is a refining capacity problem, not an crude oil supply problem. The various wars have taken out refining capacity and transport capacity. On the crude oi
by Animats 2mo ago
This is a refining capacity problem, not an crude oil supply problem. The various wars have taken out refining capacity and transport capacity.
On the crude oil side, the US strategic petroleum reserve is declining rapidly.[1]
That took a hit during COVID and the early Ukraine war because production was down. Refilling started afterward, but didn't take it up to normal levels. There's still maybe a year of oil left.
[1] https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W...
- lovich 2mo agoDoubt there’s a year. They’re currently draining it down to like 270-280ish million barrels. Which is breaking the integrity of the caverns and they can’t actually drain it completely it needs something like 100ish million barrels at minimum capacity to not fuck up the pipes. On the integrity side. The caverns were only designed for a lifetime of 5 full drawdowns[1]. The caverns the oil is stored in and the pillars supporting them are made of salt. They get the oil out by pumping water in which floats the oil up. Salt has certain integrity problems when submerged in water or so I’ve been told. This current admin doesn’t appear to accept the idea of negative consequences for their actions so I would not be surprised if they destroy the caverns because they think they can suck every last drop out. [1] https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/frequent-oil-draws-from-us-strategic-reserve-push-old-system-to-breaking-point/ar-AA27NpwL https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/frequent-oil-draws-f...
- neaden 2mo agoIt's very annoying that the cost of fixing all this and replenishing the stockpile is going to most likely fall on people who had little to nothing to do with it becoming such a big problem.
- 27183 2mo agoThe cost of fixing this will be everyone's problem. If we suddenly have to ramp up domestic production because diesel is >$10/gal it'll be a no holds barred unmitigated environmental catastrophe. We will be drilling and spilling absolutely everywhere, because the alternative is dead people in the streets. Emergencies like this are one nightmare scenario accelerant of climate disaster.
- MomsAVoxell 2mo agoThe dead people in the streets are already why diesel is >$10/gal. Don’t want expensive gas? Don’t start wars. Invest more in peace than war.
- 27183 2mo agowell sure.. obviously. but only very few actually have any control over that and they're not incentivized to choose peace. the best the rest of us can do is vote in elections. it doesn't generally work out very well though.
- MomsAVoxell 2mo agoActually we can do a lot more than just vote. We can demand justice for our own war crimes, and not be complacent about it. We can hold our own democracies accountable for the mass murder that we pay for. We can absolutely demand that prosecutions occur - or else, what else are our claims of liberal, free democracy good for? The apathy you describe allows the bombs to continue to fall. Every 15 minutes. For the past 26 years, mostly on innocent human beings. We can absolutely dissuade the continued dehumanization of cultures our ruling elite deem inferior and thus qualified for destruction. We can absolutely reach outside our own cultural bubbles and discover the truth of those we are taught, by authorities, to hate. We can resist. We must resist. Or else, what are our societies good for?
- 27183 2mo agoThe resistance you're talking about only works if like 3% of the population take to the streets. Once you see police officers marching with protesters that's when they'll start to listen. That's only ever happened once. It'll only happen again if a large number of american kids (tens or hundreds of thousands) are dying in foreign lands for years on end--i.e. not soon. That's why our leaders wage low intensity wars. The oil crisis we're talking about here is knocking on our door right now. No amount of protesting is going to stop it. When things get bad enough you'll see resistance. We're not there yet.
- MomsAVoxell 2mo agoJust like any war, ever. This is why we don’t start wars, kids.
- deleted 2mo ago[deleted]
- dgellow 2mo agoThat’s why we don’t vote for the fascist who attempted to coup its way to power
- MomsAVoxell 2mo agoThis is why you prosecute your own war criminals before falling in line, goosestep-wise behind them, to “go after those inferior cultures, over there”, you mean ..
- _DeadFred_ 2mo agoNo, that is why you vote for the person who isn't the fascist. But that was too much to ask in the last election. Just not voting for the fascist isn't enough. You need to support/improve/give energy to the alternative. Instead too many chose to just not vote for the better alternative and now here we are.
- dgellow 2mo agoAgreed
- dopa42365 2mo agoShouldn't it be profitable? Buying low and selling high. Like, the current oil in there was bought at below $60/barrel or so and sold at 50% higher price or whatever. The oil is always sold at a much higher price (otherwise it wouldn't be available in the first place).
- axus 2mo agoYou can't fuel an aircraft carrier from profits, if the oil runs out.
- triceratops 2mo agoHate to be that guy but aircraft carriers run on nuclear power. The jets on the other hand...
- dredmorbius 2mo agoEvery other surface ship in the task force, along with resupply vessels, also burns oil. The US had nine nuclear cruisers, but retired the last one, the USS South Carolina in 1999. <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear-powered_cruisers_of_the_United_States_Navy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear-powered_cruisers_of_th...> Currently the US only operates nuclear-powered aircraft carriers (11 active, two under construction), and submarines (69 active).
- neaden 2mo agoBut the person who is president when it incurs the cost, is probably not going to be the president when it makes the profit. That is one of the problems with things like this where you can get the blame for doing the responsible thing.
- mrguyorama 2mo ago[dead]
- dgellow 2mo ago“Annoying” is more than euphemistic
- windexh8er 2mo agoThe upside is that some diesel engines could run on alt fuels via transesterification, but given the supply chain isn't there I would gather electrification would happen faster. Curious how far they could push blends in a modern diesel if needed. Modern fuel rails (at 30k+ ft lbs) require the lower viscosity of refined diesel unlike older motors.