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That's what I hate most about having insight into data... the times when my intuition is wrong and there is no rational reason for what is actually happening.
by bicknergseng 14y ago
That's what I hate most about having insight into data... the times when my intuition is wrong and there is no rational reason for what is actually happening. Human behavior can be so bizarre...
- fleitz 14y agoUnfortunately, it's logical thinking that is bizzarre. Irrationality is the norm.
- d0mine 14y agoLogical thinking is fine: garbage in — garbage out. Logical thinking won't help if you give it incorrect input data. Unless you believe in supernatural; everything is math provided a correct model.
- Ntrails 14y agoThat is a complete misunderstanding of the word model. Models are tools to help describe expected behaviour given a plethora of assumptions - they are not there to perfectly predict what can and will happen. The idea that a model can do so has caused innumerable problems of late and it is frustrating to hear such myths perpetuated.
- d0mine 14y agoTo describe "what can and will happen" requires its own assumptions and therefore model. If you can't see a model you are not digging deep enough. Though I understand your point of view. Some think that the fundamental physics can end i.e., a unified theory of everything is possible. It is more likely that it is turtles all the way down i.e, we can always observe phenomena that contradict predictions of current theories (reveal assumptions that are not valid for the phenomenon).
- bicknergseng 14y agoWhile I'm not sure I agree, there's a fun meta discussion from Quora http://www.quora.com/Are-humans-fundamentally-rational-or-irrational http://www.quora.com/Are-humans-fundamentally-rational-or-ir....