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> A country pricing in Euros would make no difference apart from traders needing to check the dollar euro rate. You can't clear nation-scale oil purchases by l
by ethbr1 2mo ago
> A country pricing in Euros would make no difference apart from traders needing to check the dollar euro rate.
You can't clear nation-scale oil purchases by looking at the exchange rate, which is predicated on there being sufficient liquidity at that price for the transaction you're looking to make.
The petrodollar is both a demand and supply solution, and you're looking at this in micro rather than international macro terms.
The demand explanation is simplest -- the largest producers of a limited-source, universally-required commodity demand that purchases be made in US dollars.
As a result, all countries need access to dollars in order to make those purchases at scale.
Enter the supply side, where dollars both aren't and kinda-are physical. They aren't, in that international transactions are obviously executed with digital balances. They are, in that arbitrary countries can't just "create" dollars as needed: they must get those dollars from someone who has them.
Ultimately... the US Federal Reserve, who is empowered to create new dollars.
Putting all of this together, you have an aggregate demand for dollars of {US federal budget, similar to other countries' monetary demand} plus {international float for transacting dollar-denominated commodities}.
It's that second piece that people are really referring to when they say things like 'the petrodollar allows the US to run deficits that would negatively impact other countries' currencies'.
Because as Doctor Strangelove quipped, it is not only necessary but essential for this system's smooth functioning that the US produces large enough numbers of excess dollars to meet international demand.
The fly in the ointment, so to speak, has been the 00s+, initially War on Terror, now War on Et Al., US weaponization of the dollar against countries doing things it doesn't like.
Hence Russia/China's dream of breaking the petrodollar.
- tim333 2mo agoI'm skeptical. One piece of evidence - around 2020 the US went from being an oil importer to an oil exporter and people hardly noticed. I also think if Saudi asked to be paid in Euros rather than USD it wouldn't make much difference. People just change currencies into what they need. They are just tokens to facilitate the trade of goods and services like oil for Ferraris in Euro or oil for Boeings in USD. The forex markets are huge.
- ethbr1 2mo agoIronically, the US being an oil import / exporter is the least important country to this system, given it's the only one able to arbitrarily inflate the US dollar supply. The forex vs oil scale is valid point, and it'd be curious to compare it across the decades. Per some preliminary numbers, Brenton Woods being abandoned in 1971 led to market forex volume substantially growing every year. Oil:forex looks like ~1:150 in 1980, scaling to 1:500 in 2010. So indeed an increasingly smaller portion of the forex pie.