3 ms·

Has that model been proven to work for other diseases?

mardef 2mo ago
Malaria is one that comes to mind. We can prevent it, have eradicated it from many countries, but the long tail will take a few more decades to reach planet-wide success. There are charities that specialize in analyzing climate data to see where outbreaks may occur next. There are charities that just do government outreach to leaders that don't believe medicine is real. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eradication_of_malaria https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eradication_of_malaria
fragmede 2mo ago
I mean, we were making progress with measles but then RFK happened.
- tmp10423288442 2mo ago
  Maybe yes, maybe no. Measles cases have been on a long-term upward trend in the US since the bottom around 2000: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-measles-cases?time=2000..latest https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-measles-cases?t... In Canada, measles cases suddenly exploded in 2025 as well, and they don't have RFK Jr. there: https://health-infobase.canada.ca/measles-rubella/ https://health-infobase.canada.ca/measles-rubella/ The policies around measles vaccines have shifted a little since RFK became HHS Secretary, but not in a material way. Generally the messaging has focused on putting measles, mumps, and rubella in individual vaccines rather than combined, but at no point has the federal government recommended not to get vaccinated. That, combined with the Canadian data, implies that RFK or other changes to US health policy are not likely to be the cause of the measles outbreaks.
  - xienze 2mo ago
    The elephant in the room that a lot of people don't want to talk about is mass migration from countries where measles is still a major thing... surely that contributes a bit.
    - tmp10423288442 2mo ago
      I think the more honest people in the space acknowledge that’s at least one of, if not the major reason. The antivax movement contributes as well of course

Malaria is one that comes to mind. We can prevent it, have eradicated it from many countries, but the long tail will take a few more decades to reach planet-wide success. There are charities that specialize in analyzing climate data to see where outbreaks may occur next. There are charities that just do government outreach to leaders that don't believe medicine is real. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eradication_of_malaria https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eradication_of_malaria

fragmede 2mo ago

I mean, we were making progress with measles but then RFK happened.

tmp10423288442 2mo ago
Maybe yes, maybe no. Measles cases have been on a long-term upward trend in the US since the bottom around 2000: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-measles-cases?time=2000..latest https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-measles-cases?t... In Canada, measles cases suddenly exploded in 2025 as well, and they don't have RFK Jr. there: https://health-infobase.canada.ca/measles-rubella/ https://health-infobase.canada.ca/measles-rubella/ The policies around measles vaccines have shifted a little since RFK became HHS Secretary, but not in a material way. Generally the messaging has focused on putting measles, mumps, and rubella in individual vaccines rather than combined, but at no point has the federal government recommended not to get vaccinated. That, combined with the Canadian data, implies that RFK or other changes to US health policy are not likely to be the cause of the measles outbreaks.
- xienze 2mo ago
  The elephant in the room that a lot of people don't want to talk about is mass migration from countries where measles is still a major thing... surely that contributes a bit.
  - tmp10423288442 2mo ago
    I think the more honest people in the space acknowledge that’s at least one of, if not the major reason. The antivax movement contributes as well of course