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Democrats Change in Deficit --------- ----------------- Joe Biden -6.1% GDP Barack Obama -6.4% GDP Bill

Democrats Change in Deficit --------- ----------------- Joe Biden -6.1% GDP Barack Obama -6.4% GDP Bill Clinton -5.0% GDP Jimmy Carter -0.2% GDP Republicans Change in Deficit ----------- ----------------- Donald Trump +8.6% GDP George W. Bush +11.0% GDP George H. W. Bush +1.1% GDP Ronald Reagan +0.2% GDP Gerald Ford +2.3% GDP Richard Nixon +0.7% GDP Dwight Eisenhower -1.1% GDP via ChatGPT which among other things verified the original table. I didn't bother with inflation adjustment since it's normalized by GDP.

smallmancontrov 2mo ago
Good call, normalizing to GDP instead of deficit fixes the flip into/out of surplus problem. Also, now that aggro "cite your sources" guy ran, it's probably worth duplicating the cite here: https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/information-resources/budget/historical-tables/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/information-resources/budget/... Despite being witehouse.gov, I am pleased to see that this is one page that Trump has not yet updated to read "Republicans Rule Democrats Drool" over an editorialized fever dream replacing inconvenient data. Grab it while it lasts, and let's hope that accounting remains boring enough to repel such attention!
FrustratedMonky 2mo ago
There is theory that debt drives GDP. The more debt, the more money in circulation, more GDP. So cutting debt, cuts GDP. Also. Not sure GDP is completely normalized verses inflation.
- fluidcruft 2mo ago
  I'm no expert about anything related to this but the obvious fact that the size of the debt as proportion of GDP has consistently increased since Reagan first implemented this scheme suggests it's pretty obvious these GDP gains do not offset increased debt (and that this is causative).
  - FrustratedMonky 2mo ago
    Not offset. Other way around. Debt comes from spending, that spending is on stuff, which drives GDP. So whole concept that we could reduce debt by increasing GDP and tax it, is not how the money actually flows. This is why in economic downturns, often the best solution is more debt, by more spending. And trying to fix economy by 'austerity' makes things worse. Of course, also I don't know solution, or what the 'right size' debt should be. Just that it isn't black/white.
    - fluidcruft 2mo ago
      It makes sense that spending stimulates GDP in the short term. The consequences of debt are delayed. The argument that people tried to make in the past was that spending can stimulate growth so much that growth ultimately overshadows debt. That was controversial 50 years ago but at this point it doesn't seem like it's working out as expected since debt has been doing nothing except steadily increase relative to GDP. Sometimes it's valid to accept that failed experiments are failures.
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root-parent 2mo ago
Change in U.S. Gross Federal Debt (fiscal-year-end figures, not inauguration-to-inauguration) Democrats --------------------------------------------------- President Start End Change --------------------------------------------------- Joe Biden $28.386T $37.375T +$8.989T Barack Obama $11.876T $20.206T +$8.330T Bill Clinton $4.351T $5.770T +$1.419T Jimmy Carter $0.706T $0.995T +$0.288T Republicans --------------------------------------------------- President Start End Change --------------------------------------------------- Donald Trump $20.206T $28.386T +$8.180T George W. Bush $5.770T $11.876T +$6.106T George H.W. Bush $2.868T $4.351T +$1.483T Ronald Reagan $0.995T $2.868T +$1.873T Gerald Ford $0.484T $0.706T +$0.223T Richard Nixon $0.366T $0.484T +$0.118T Dwight Eisenhower $0.266T $0.293T +$0.027T Source: https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/information-resources/budget/historical-tables/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/information-resources/budget/... These are changes between fiscal-year endpoints, not the exact amount of debt incurred during each president's time in office.Fiscal years do not line up with inauguration dates.
- deleted 2mo ago
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marcusverus 2mo ago
This is nonsensical. Debt-to-GDP over the course of an entire term is what matters. Debt was 77% of GDP when Obama took office and >102% when he left. The "change in deficit" is a useless measure. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S
- fluidcruft 2mo ago
  Democrats Change In Debt/GDP ----------- ------------------ Joe Biden +0.1 pp Barack Obama +22.2 pp Bill Clinton -9.4 pp Jimmy Carter -3.1 pp Republicans Change In Debt/GDP ----------- ------------------ Donald Trump +18.9 pp George W. Bush +27.3 pp George H. W. Bush +12.6 pp Ronald Reagan +19.8 pp Gerald Ford +2.3 pp Richard Nixon -4.7 pp Dwight Eisenhower -16.1 pp

smallmancontrov 2mo ago

Good call, normalizing to GDP instead of deficit fixes the flip into/out of surplus problem. Also, now that aggro "cite your sources" guy ran, it's probably worth duplicating the cite here: https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/information-resources/budget/historical-tables/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/information-resources/budget/... Despite being witehouse.gov, I am pleased to see that this is one page that Trump has not yet updated to read "Republicans Rule Democrats Drool" over an editorialized fever dream replacing inconvenient data. Grab it while it lasts, and let's hope that accounting remains boring enough to repel such attention!

FrustratedMonky 2mo ago

There is theory that debt drives GDP. The more debt, the more money in circulation, more GDP. So cutting debt, cuts GDP. Also. Not sure GDP is completely normalized verses inflation.

fluidcruft 2mo ago
I'm no expert about anything related to this but the obvious fact that the size of the debt as proportion of GDP has consistently increased since Reagan first implemented this scheme suggests it's pretty obvious these GDP gains do not offset increased debt (and that this is causative).
- FrustratedMonky 2mo ago
  Not offset. Other way around. Debt comes from spending, that spending is on stuff, which drives GDP. So whole concept that we could reduce debt by increasing GDP and tax it, is not how the money actually flows. This is why in economic downturns, often the best solution is more debt, by more spending. And trying to fix economy by 'austerity' makes things worse. Of course, also I don't know solution, or what the 'right size' debt should be. Just that it isn't black/white.
  - fluidcruft 2mo ago
    It makes sense that spending stimulates GDP in the short term. The consequences of debt are delayed. The argument that people tried to make in the past was that spending can stimulate growth so much that growth ultimately overshadows debt. That was controversial 50 years ago but at this point it doesn't seem like it's working out as expected since debt has been doing nothing except steadily increase relative to GDP. Sometimes it's valid to accept that failed experiments are failures.

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root-parent 2mo ago

Change in U.S. Gross Federal Debt (fiscal-year-end figures, not inauguration-to-inauguration) Democrats --------------------------------------------------- President Start End Change --------------------------------------------------- Joe Biden $28.386T $37.375T +$8.989T Barack Obama $11.876T $20.206T +$8.330T Bill Clinton $4.351T $5.770T +$1.419T Jimmy Carter $0.706T $0.995T +$0.288T Republicans --------------------------------------------------- President Start End Change --------------------------------------------------- Donald Trump $20.206T $28.386T +$8.180T George W. Bush $5.770T $11.876T +$6.106T George H.W. Bush $2.868T $4.351T +$1.483T Ronald Reagan $0.995T $2.868T +$1.873T Gerald Ford $0.484T $0.706T +$0.223T Richard Nixon $0.366T $0.484T +$0.118T Dwight Eisenhower $0.266T $0.293T +$0.027T Source: https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/information-resources/budget/historical-tables/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/information-resources/budget/... These are changes between fiscal-year endpoints, not the exact amount of debt incurred during each president's time in office.Fiscal years do not line up with inauguration dates.

deleted 2mo ago
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marcusverus 2mo ago

This is nonsensical. Debt-to-GDP over the course of an entire term is what matters. Debt was 77% of GDP when Obama took office and >102% when he left. The "change in deficit" is a useless measure. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S

fluidcruft 2mo ago
Democrats Change In Debt/GDP ----------- ------------------ Joe Biden +0.1 pp Barack Obama +22.2 pp Bill Clinton -9.4 pp Jimmy Carter -3.1 pp Republicans Change In Debt/GDP ----------- ------------------ Donald Trump +18.9 pp George W. Bush +27.3 pp George H. W. Bush +12.6 pp Ronald Reagan +19.8 pp Gerald Ford +2.3 pp Richard Nixon -4.7 pp Dwight Eisenhower -16.1 pp