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Democrats Change In Deficit ----------- -------- Joe Biden -$999B Barack Obama -$747B Bill Clinton -$383B

Democrats Change In Deficit ----------- -------- Joe Biden -$999B Barack Obama -$747B Bill Clinton -$383B Jimmy Carter +$25.3B Republicans Change In Deficit ----------- -------- Donald Trump +$2.108T George W. Bush +$1.541T George H. W. Bush +$102B Ronald Reagan +$73.7B Gerald Ford +$47.5B Richard Nixon +$9.4B Dwight Eisenhower -$3.2B

deleted 2mo ago
[deleted]
refurb 2mo ago
You need to adjust for inflation. Also the correct measure is % of GDP
- deleted 2mo ago
  [deleted]
- deleted 2mo ago
  [deleted]
- fluidcruft 2mo ago
  Democrats Change in Deficit --------- ----------------- Joe Biden -6.1% GDP Barack Obama -6.4% GDP Bill Clinton -5.0% GDP Jimmy Carter -0.2% GDP Republicans Change in Deficit ----------- ----------------- Donald Trump +8.6% GDP George W. Bush +11.0% GDP George H. W. Bush +1.1% GDP Ronald Reagan +0.2% GDP Gerald Ford +2.3% GDP Richard Nixon +0.7% GDP Dwight Eisenhower -1.1% GDP via ChatGPT which among other things verified the original table. I didn't bother with inflation adjustment since it's normalized by GDP.
  - smallmancontrov 2mo ago
    Good call, normalizing to GDP instead of deficit fixes the flip into/out of surplus problem. Also, now that aggro "cite your sources" guy ran, it's probably worth duplicating the cite here: https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/information-resources/budget/historical-tables/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/information-resources/budget/... Despite being witehouse.gov, I am pleased to see that this is one page that Trump has not yet updated to read "Republicans Rule Democrats Drool" over an editorialized fever dream replacing inconvenient data. Grab it while it lasts, and let's hope that accounting remains boring enough to repel such attention!
  - FrustratedMonky 2mo ago
    There is theory that debt drives GDP. The more debt, the more money in circulation, more GDP. So cutting debt, cuts GDP. Also. Not sure GDP is completely normalized verses inflation.
    - fluidcruft 2mo ago
      I'm no expert about anything related to this but the obvious fact that the size of the debt as proportion of GDP has consistently increased since Reagan first implemented this scheme suggests it's pretty obvious these GDP gains do not offset increased debt (and that this is causative).
      - FrustratedMonky 2mo ago
        Not offset. Other way around. Debt comes from spending, that spending is on stuff, which drives GDP. So whole concept that we could reduce debt by increasing GDP and tax it, is not how the money actually flows. This is why in economic downturns, often the best solution is more debt, by more spending. And trying to fix economy by 'austerity' makes things worse. Of course, also I don't know solution, or what the 'right size' debt should be. Just that it isn't black/white.
        fluidcruft 2mo ago
- actionfromafar 2mo ago
  President Change pp Eisenhower -1.8 Nixon +0.8 Ford +0.8 Carter 0 Reagan +0.5 GHW Bush +1.8 Clinton -6.1 GW Bush +4.3 Obama -6.6 Trump +11 Biden -5.8 But Trump 2 will definitely lower it, more than anyone has ever seen before.
  - apercu 2mo ago
    > But Trump 2 will definitely lower it, more than anyone has ever seen before. Lower what?
    - danaris 2mo ago
      America.
  - frankdejonge 2mo ago
    What do you base that expectation on?
    - actionfromafar 2mo ago
      He's the Dear Leader!
msandford 2mo ago
It would be nice to see change in debt numbers vs change in deficit numbers. I think only Clinton ran a surplus in the last 30 years.
- smallmancontrov 2mo ago
  Yep, and the last Republican to run a surplus was Eisenhower during FY 1960.
  - m0llusk 2mo ago
    Eisenhower who, despite being exhausted by WWII efforts, ran for presidency because he saw that as the only way to prevent a civil war. Nowadays the American Left is Center Right, but back then the American Right was Center Left. Things change, things stay the same.
    - marcusverus 2mo ago
      [flagged]
      - scarecrowbob 2mo ago
        Yes, yes and their hearts pump a viscous oily goo rather than blood.
        smallmancontrov 2mo ago
        I will not stop until every last frog is gay.
        deleted 2mo ago
        [deleted]
    - ericmay 2mo ago
      > Eisenhower who, despite being exhausted by WWII efforts, ran for presidency because he saw that as the only way to prevent a civil war. Can you share more about this? I'm unfamiliar with a post-World War II civil war risk. Who were the conspirators? Who would be fighting whom? > Nowadays the American Left is Center Right, but back then the American Right was Center Left. Things change, things stay the same. I don't think this is the case. Populism has confused some folks about where things stand. There also seems to be this default assumption, kind of like the End of History, that being "left" is associated with moral goodness and so haha the American left is only just center right, ergo not quite good enough yet! I'd challenge that assumption. Frankly, the center is often the best because moving too far to one side or the other is destabilizing. Communism would be awful, as would other authoritarian ideologies like fascism.
Y-bar 2mo ago
Two thumbs up for bringing numbers. Though I would like to see which dates were used to calculate them. And if it was from ”first day to last day of office” it would also be interesting to calculate with a certain ”lag” to account for the fact that effect of some legislation may not show until a bit later.
- IAmBroom 2mo ago
  You are welcome to do the highly customized analysis you desire.
goalieca 2mo ago
Not an American here, but doesn’t Congress pass budgets? Everyone always blames the president but as I look in from the outside, it’s entirely the house and the senate who bungle things.
- georgemcbay 2mo ago
  > Not an American here, but doesn’t Congress pass budgets? In theory. In reality the US Congress hasn't passed a full real budget since 1996 (for the 1997 fiscal year). Our system of government is hopelessly broken.
- dataflow 2mo ago
  I've had the same question for a long time and I suspect the answer is something like "the executive is still the one doing the analysis and making the proposals" - presumably Congress doesn't just allocate with complete disregard for what the executive requests. If the executive requests less then it (usually) gets less. But I'd definitely appreciate a more satisfactory answer.
  - ethbr1 2mo ago
    As the quip goes, 'the President proposes and Congress disposes' In the sense that the President (and the executive branch behind him) almost always have greater unity of purpose (it should! The President technically picked them!) and therefore clarity of vision than Congress. But Congress (as a largely power-distributed, multi-state-representative body) is ultimately empowered to say yes or no. As a realpolitik result, Congress (of same or opposition party) generally lets the President lead with a proposal, and then adjusts it to their satisfaction into something that can pass. Congress would likely be realistically unable to generate a yearly budget, if left to their own devices, due to competing interests and priorities. Having a starter plan from the President cuts through some of that, even if they strike large sections of it.
itbeho 2mo ago
You should be comparing which party controlled congress as well.
altairprime 2mo ago
This needs three changes to support meaningful discussion and response: First, all values should be in the same unit; switching from B to T worsens readability here. Second, it should include the total change as % of GDP as a range across their 4-year term; comparing by actual economic output fractions is better than raw or inflation dollars alone. Third, the raw dollars should be inflation-adjusted to allow comparison; as presented, no comparison other than sign +/- is meaningful, and especially not of scale of +/-.

deleted 2mo ago

[deleted]

refurb 2mo ago

You need to adjust for inflation. Also the correct measure is % of GDP

deleted 2mo ago
[deleted]
deleted 2mo ago
[deleted]
fluidcruft 2mo ago
Democrats Change in Deficit --------- ----------------- Joe Biden -6.1% GDP Barack Obama -6.4% GDP Bill Clinton -5.0% GDP Jimmy Carter -0.2% GDP Republicans Change in Deficit ----------- ----------------- Donald Trump +8.6% GDP George W. Bush +11.0% GDP George H. W. Bush +1.1% GDP Ronald Reagan +0.2% GDP Gerald Ford +2.3% GDP Richard Nixon +0.7% GDP Dwight Eisenhower -1.1% GDP via ChatGPT which among other things verified the original table. I didn't bother with inflation adjustment since it's normalized by GDP.
- smallmancontrov 2mo ago
  Good call, normalizing to GDP instead of deficit fixes the flip into/out of surplus problem. Also, now that aggro "cite your sources" guy ran, it's probably worth duplicating the cite here: https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/information-resources/budget/historical-tables/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/information-resources/budget/... Despite being witehouse.gov, I am pleased to see that this is one page that Trump has not yet updated to read "Republicans Rule Democrats Drool" over an editorialized fever dream replacing inconvenient data. Grab it while it lasts, and let's hope that accounting remains boring enough to repel such attention!
- FrustratedMonky 2mo ago
  There is theory that debt drives GDP. The more debt, the more money in circulation, more GDP. So cutting debt, cuts GDP. Also. Not sure GDP is completely normalized verses inflation.
  - fluidcruft 2mo ago
    I'm no expert about anything related to this but the obvious fact that the size of the debt as proportion of GDP has consistently increased since Reagan first implemented this scheme suggests it's pretty obvious these GDP gains do not offset increased debt (and that this is causative).
    - FrustratedMonky 2mo ago
      Not offset. Other way around. Debt comes from spending, that spending is on stuff, which drives GDP. So whole concept that we could reduce debt by increasing GDP and tax it, is not how the money actually flows. This is why in economic downturns, often the best solution is more debt, by more spending. And trying to fix economy by 'austerity' makes things worse. Of course, also I don't know solution, or what the 'right size' debt should be. Just that it isn't black/white.
      - fluidcruft 2mo ago
actionfromafar 2mo ago
President Change pp Eisenhower -1.8 Nixon +0.8 Ford +0.8 Carter 0 Reagan +0.5 GHW Bush +1.8 Clinton -6.1 GW Bush +4.3 Obama -6.6 Trump +11 Biden -5.8 But Trump 2 will definitely lower it, more than anyone has ever seen before.
- apercu 2mo ago
  > But Trump 2 will definitely lower it, more than anyone has ever seen before. Lower what?
  - danaris 2mo ago
    America.
- frankdejonge 2mo ago
  What do you base that expectation on?
  - actionfromafar 2mo ago
    He's the Dear Leader!

msandford 2mo ago

It would be nice to see change in debt numbers vs change in deficit numbers. I think only Clinton ran a surplus in the last 30 years.

smallmancontrov 2mo ago
Yep, and the last Republican to run a surplus was Eisenhower during FY 1960.
- m0llusk 2mo ago
  Eisenhower who, despite being exhausted by WWII efforts, ran for presidency because he saw that as the only way to prevent a civil war. Nowadays the American Left is Center Right, but back then the American Right was Center Left. Things change, things stay the same.
  - marcusverus 2mo ago
    [flagged]
    - scarecrowbob 2mo ago
      Yes, yes and their hearts pump a viscous oily goo rather than blood.
      - smallmancontrov 2mo ago
        I will not stop until every last frog is gay.
        deleted 2mo ago
        [deleted]
  - ericmay 2mo ago
    > Eisenhower who, despite being exhausted by WWII efforts, ran for presidency because he saw that as the only way to prevent a civil war. Can you share more about this? I'm unfamiliar with a post-World War II civil war risk. Who were the conspirators? Who would be fighting whom? > Nowadays the American Left is Center Right, but back then the American Right was Center Left. Things change, things stay the same. I don't think this is the case. Populism has confused some folks about where things stand. There also seems to be this default assumption, kind of like the End of History, that being "left" is associated with moral goodness and so haha the American left is only just center right, ergo not quite good enough yet! I'd challenge that assumption. Frankly, the center is often the best because moving too far to one side or the other is destabilizing. Communism would be awful, as would other authoritarian ideologies like fascism.

Y-bar 2mo ago

Two thumbs up for bringing numbers. Though I would like to see which dates were used to calculate them. And if it was from ”first day to last day of office” it would also be interesting to calculate with a certain ”lag” to account for the fact that effect of some legislation may not show until a bit later.

IAmBroom 2mo ago
You are welcome to do the highly customized analysis you desire.

goalieca 2mo ago

Not an American here, but doesn’t Congress pass budgets? Everyone always blames the president but as I look in from the outside, it’s entirely the house and the senate who bungle things.

georgemcbay 2mo ago
> Not an American here, but doesn’t Congress pass budgets? In theory. In reality the US Congress hasn't passed a full real budget since 1996 (for the 1997 fiscal year). Our system of government is hopelessly broken.
dataflow 2mo ago
I've had the same question for a long time and I suspect the answer is something like "the executive is still the one doing the analysis and making the proposals" - presumably Congress doesn't just allocate with complete disregard for what the executive requests. If the executive requests less then it (usually) gets less. But I'd definitely appreciate a more satisfactory answer.
- ethbr1 2mo ago
  As the quip goes, 'the President proposes and Congress disposes' In the sense that the President (and the executive branch behind him) almost always have greater unity of purpose (it should! The President technically picked them!) and therefore clarity of vision than Congress. But Congress (as a largely power-distributed, multi-state-representative body) is ultimately empowered to say yes or no. As a realpolitik result, Congress (of same or opposition party) generally lets the President lead with a proposal, and then adjusts it to their satisfaction into something that can pass. Congress would likely be realistically unable to generate a yearly budget, if left to their own devices, due to competing interests and priorities. Having a starter plan from the President cuts through some of that, even if they strike large sections of it.

itbeho 2mo ago

You should be comparing which party controlled congress as well.

altairprime 2mo ago

This needs three changes to support meaningful discussion and response: First, all values should be in the same unit; switching from B to T worsens readability here. Second, it should include the total change as % of GDP as a range across their 4-year term; comparing by actual economic output fractions is better than raw or inflation dollars alone. Third, the raw dollars should be inflation-adjusted to allow comparison; as presented, no comparison other than sign +/- is meaningful, and especially not of scale of +/-.