4 ms·

Let's not kid each other that the benefits of AI will flow to everyone in the US. The existing underclass will be come even bigger, and that will threaten stabi

Let's not kid each other that the benefits of AI will flow to everyone in the US. The existing underclass will be come even bigger, and that will threaten stability and welfare for everyone. Sure, maybe it's even worse in countries that have no AI at all - but does it really make a difference if 90% of the population is protesting in the streets instead of 70%? Isn't it more likely that countries without native frontier models will use open-weights models that will let them be 70% as productive as countries that do?

renegade-otter 2mo ago
The biggest impact I think will be when it comes to starting a career. Young people will be forced to live with parents for years while they are an unpaid "apprentice". In that sense, there is no need for college anymore - just spend the four years learning on the job (at least you won't have to pay for it even more).
- eru 2mo ago
  Why do you think on the job learning will fare better than college?
  - renegade-otter 2mo ago
    You need both, but skill-wise, I think you learn way more on the job.
    - eru 2mo ago
      College isn't for skills anyway (for most careers). See Bryan Caplan's Case against Education: attending college is mostly to signal conformity.
ben_w 2mo ago
> Isn't it more likely that countries without native frontier models will use open-weights models that will let them be 70% as productive of counties that do? Possibly, but sometimes being marginally better lets you win all the games. It can be difficult to guess what matters and how. Also, may depend where the compute is physically located, which may depend on the cost of energy.
- Schiendelman 2mo ago
  That's exactly why TSMC keeps beating the pants off Intel. Marginally better looks miles ahead in computing a lot of the time.
- eru 2mo ago
  Luckily, competing Chinese companies are selling cheaper and cheaper solar panels to anyone who's willing to take them.
  - ben_w 2mo ago
    For now. Globalisation's great right up until your manufacturing base decides they don't like you, or you them. Reshoring is expensive for all the reasons offshoring was ever tempting in the first place, so we'll have to wait and see how this plays out.
    - eru 2mo ago
      If China stops selling you solar panels tomorrow, you still have all the solar panels they sold you until now. And why do you see reshoring as the only alternative? Seems like a false dilemma. There's more than two places on the globe.
      - ben_w 2mo ago
        > If China stops selling you solar panels tomorrow, you still have all the solar panels they sold you until now. Which is great, unless demand for electricity goes up loads. (Edit: Which I expect to occur if for example AI is transformative enough to warrant fears of people without it becoming an economic backwater). > And why do you see reshoring as the only alternative? Seems like a false dilemma. There's more than two places on the globe. "Here" and "not here" is a complete set. I could also phrase it as "autarky or trade".
        eru 2mo ago
        > "Here" and "not here" is a complete set. > Globalisation's great right up until your manufacturing base decides they don't like you, or you them. Your manufacturing base might be in China. You might be in Bulgaria. And when China doesn't like you, you ask someone else.

renegade-otter 2mo ago

The biggest impact I think will be when it comes to starting a career. Young people will be forced to live with parents for years while they are an unpaid "apprentice". In that sense, there is no need for college anymore - just spend the four years learning on the job (at least you won't have to pay for it even more).

eru 2mo ago
Why do you think on the job learning will fare better than college?
- renegade-otter 2mo ago
  You need both, but skill-wise, I think you learn way more on the job.
  - eru 2mo ago
    College isn't for skills anyway (for most careers). See Bryan Caplan's Case against Education: attending college is mostly to signal conformity.

ben_w 2mo ago

> Isn't it more likely that countries without native frontier models will use open-weights models that will let them be 70% as productive of counties that do? Possibly, but sometimes being marginally better lets you win all the games. It can be difficult to guess what matters and how. Also, may depend where the compute is physically located, which may depend on the cost of energy.

Schiendelman 2mo ago
That's exactly why TSMC keeps beating the pants off Intel. Marginally better looks miles ahead in computing a lot of the time.
eru 2mo ago
Luckily, competing Chinese companies are selling cheaper and cheaper solar panels to anyone who's willing to take them.
- ben_w 2mo ago
  For now. Globalisation's great right up until your manufacturing base decides they don't like you, or you them. Reshoring is expensive for all the reasons offshoring was ever tempting in the first place, so we'll have to wait and see how this plays out.
  - eru 2mo ago
    If China stops selling you solar panels tomorrow, you still have all the solar panels they sold you until now. And why do you see reshoring as the only alternative? Seems like a false dilemma. There's more than two places on the globe.
    - ben_w 2mo ago
      > If China stops selling you solar panels tomorrow, you still have all the solar panels they sold you until now. Which is great, unless demand for electricity goes up loads. (Edit: Which I expect to occur if for example AI is transformative enough to warrant fears of people without it becoming an economic backwater). > And why do you see reshoring as the only alternative? Seems like a false dilemma. There's more than two places on the globe. "Here" and "not here" is a complete set. I could also phrase it as "autarky or trade".
      - eru 2mo ago
        > "Here" and "not here" is a complete set. > Globalisation's great right up until your manufacturing base decides they don't like you, or you them. Your manufacturing base might be in China. You might be in Bulgaria. And when China doesn't like you, you ask someone else.