4 ms·

> When China too stops publishing weights you'll never have anything better than K3 / the current SOTA. Hasn't happened yet. Might not happen at all. Also, t

> When China too stops publishing weights you'll never have anything better than K3 / the current SOTA. Hasn't happened yet. Might not happen at all. Also, there's a lot that can be done with K3. > Even now open weights are perpetually 6-12 months behind. This is a very commonplace opinion yet I don't believe it's genuinely true. K3 is hardly much worse than Fable and can surpass it on certain tasks; they read as different, not as one that's 12 months behind the other. And don't forget that access to Fable is highly constrained. As for small/local models: The leading edge is open by definition, and hardly much worse -- if worse at all -- than small models like Luna or Haiku (lol).

HeatrayEnjoyer 2mo ago
It almost can't not happen. No one is going to release highly powerful near-future models for the same reason no one releases how to make physically compact but megaton yield fusion devices (which even today is still not publicly known how to do). Any state, especially the two present superpowers, has little to gain and much to lose by doing that. A model that fits on a laptop and is literally Skynet-level capable would not be released by any rational actor, which China is. (Whether someone else would make and release one is another matter.) China doesn't want Uyghur groups taking down their infrastructure, eventually it's not about the USA at all. -- K3 is almost, but not quite, competitive in August 2026, against a model that completed training last winter. There is still a gap.
- A_D_E_P_T 2mo ago
  K3 is highly competitive. They're essentially tied here: > https://www.together.ai/blog/kimi-k3-vs-claude-fable-5-on-deepswe-cost-and-coding https://www.together.ai/blog/kimi-k3-vs-claude-fable-5-on-de... And they're very very close here: > https://artificialanalysis.ai/models https://artificialanalysis.ai/models And that's if you don't take cost and guardrails into consideration. If you do, K3 beats Fable hands down. That aside, I'm not an insider, and I can't really say when K3 completed training. What we do know is that it released to the public in mid-July, about a month ago. Fable 5's initial botched release was in mid-June, and it was re-released in early July. > No one is going to release highly powerful near-future models for the same reason no one releases how to make physically compact but megaton yield fusion devices So there's essentially an open Mythos-class model right now. Near-Mythos-class if you really want to quibble. Maybe past some threshold such models won't release to the public at all, or will release only in closed form, but we cannot predict when that threshold will be crossed. Fortunately for the world, it remains politically advantageous for China to support open model development. It's a winning strategy, especially in the long-term. Besides, I don't think a Uyghur Underground would be able to acquire the hardware to run a K3-class model, to say nothing of a Skynet-class AI.

HeatrayEnjoyer 2mo ago

It almost can't not happen. No one is going to release highly powerful near-future models for the same reason no one releases how to make physically compact but megaton yield fusion devices (which even today is still not publicly known how to do). Any state, especially the two present superpowers, has little to gain and much to lose by doing that. A model that fits on a laptop and is literally Skynet-level capable would not be released by any rational actor, which China is. (Whether someone else would make and release one is another matter.) China doesn't want Uyghur groups taking down their infrastructure, eventually it's not about the USA at all. -- K3 is almost, but not quite, competitive in August 2026, against a model that completed training last winter. There is still a gap.

A_D_E_P_T 2mo ago
K3 is highly competitive. They're essentially tied here: > https://www.together.ai/blog/kimi-k3-vs-claude-fable-5-on-deepswe-cost-and-coding https://www.together.ai/blog/kimi-k3-vs-claude-fable-5-on-de... And they're very very close here: > https://artificialanalysis.ai/models https://artificialanalysis.ai/models And that's if you don't take cost and guardrails into consideration. If you do, K3 beats Fable hands down. That aside, I'm not an insider, and I can't really say when K3 completed training. What we do know is that it released to the public in mid-July, about a month ago. Fable 5's initial botched release was in mid-June, and it was re-released in early July. > No one is going to release highly powerful near-future models for the same reason no one releases how to make physically compact but megaton yield fusion devices So there's essentially an open Mythos-class model right now. Near-Mythos-class if you really want to quibble. Maybe past some threshold such models won't release to the public at all, or will release only in closed form, but we cannot predict when that threshold will be crossed. Fortunately for the world, it remains politically advantageous for China to support open model development. It's a winning strategy, especially in the long-term. Besides, I don't think a Uyghur Underground would be able to acquire the hardware to run a K3-class model, to say nothing of a Skynet-class AI.