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interesting to see that the only regions to still not have peaked in 2100 are: USA, Canada, much of Africa, Saudi Arabia, and Australia.
by andsoitis 2mo ago
interesting to see that the only regions to still not have peaked in 2100 are: USA, Canada, much of Africa, Saudi Arabia, and Australia.
- toomuchtodo 2mo agoThis is predicated on overly optimistic population predictions by the UN. The CBO predicts peak US population in 2056, the US Census in 2080, for example. The UN is notorious for overestimating forward looking fertility rates or potential rebounds from current lows. https://www.billkingblog.com/blog/the-u-n-has-quietly-lowered-its-population-forecasts https://www.billkingblog.com/blog/the-u-n-has-quietly-lowere... https://www.aei.org/commentary/peak-american/ https://www.aei.org/commentary/peak-american/ https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/fertility-rates-across-many-countries-have-converged-despite-starting-from-very-different-levels https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/fertility-rates-acr... https://usafacts.org/articles/what-will-americas-population-look-like-by-2100/ https://usafacts.org/articles/what-will-americas-population-... https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61879 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61879 (fertility rates are converging globally at ~1-1.6 TFR, with some countries as low as 0.6-0.8)