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The loans will just take longer to repay. There is a market for Anthropic & OpenAI, it just likely doesn't have the 200B profit each year required for the maths
by HDBaseT 2mo ago
The loans will just take longer to repay. There is a market for Anthropic & OpenAI, it just likely doesn't have the 200B profit each year required for the maths to make sense.
If shit hits the fan, the companies collapse, then Nvidia gets their money from the investors anyways.
- jacquesm 2mo agoNV might end up owning them.
- deleted 2mo ago[deleted]
- riknos314 2mo agoBuying the team and then actually making the models open is an interesting avenue for driving hardware demand (basically making openai models the new nemotron). Unlikely but quite interesting.
- jacquesm 2mo agoOpenAI might actually end up being open after all... bit of a roundabout way though.
- asveikau 2mo agoI'm hoping when the shit hits the fan, you can get a sick GPU for cheap.
- gonzo41 2mo agoit'll be a rack based GPU without video ports. The only thing getting sick GPU's will be landfill when they all burn out and the data center rationalization happens.
- kees99 2mo agoMore like rack-sized GPU that takes in half-megawatt of power as 800 volts DC, and requires 10 gallons per second of liquid cooling or it'll catch fire.
- SturgeonsLaw 2mo agoLooks like I'll have to get back into casemodding then
- trescenzi 2mo agoTotally agree these won’t go to consumers but even after a crash I’d home they are able to be sold for parts and not just to landfills. If this all goes into the trash that would be even more tragic than it already is.
- palmotea 2mo ago> Totally agree these won’t go to consumers but even after a crash I’d home they are able to be sold for parts and not just to landfills. If this all goes into the trash that would be even more tragic than it already is. I'm not an accountant (so I could be wrong), but I'm vaguely under the impression it's sometimes financially beneficial to "write off" inventory, and to do that you have to destroy the items (e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atari_video_game_burial https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atari_video_game_burial, https://appleinsider.com/articles/23/05/30/apples-lisa-entombment-was-just-the-beginning-shows-new-documentary https://appleinsider.com/articles/23/05/30/apples-lisa-entom...). So I kinda wouldn't be surprised if a bunch of these GPUs go in the dump, given that it sounds like they'd be extremely power-hungry and difficult to use outside a hyperscale data center setting.
- leoqa 2mo agoI went down a rabbit hole of refurbing burnt out crypto gpus. It’s really not too complicated but can be hit or miss. Need to get a box full.
- 2mo ago
- cmiles8 2mo agoMore likely is communities will end up with a bunch of half-built abandoned datacenter projects.
- fwipsy 2mo agoIsn't that what they said?
- nswango 2mo agoI think a more likely scenario is that GPU time in the cloud will be very cheap. If LLM use/profitability doesn't follow the expected path, new deep learning applications could be heavily subsidised.
- no-name-here 2mo ago> If shit hits the fan, the companies collapse, then Nvidia gets their money from the investors anyways. Is Nvidia guaranteeing the financing because OpenAI doesn’t have investor cash to pay the costs outright?
- ethbr1 2mo agoNvidia is guaranteeing OpenAI's financing because, at a high level, people are more willing to lend/invest money with a profitable company than one losing money. And Sam Altman needs a new source of financing because the US government is getting squirrelly about him continuing to raise capital from the Middle East in exchange for technology transfer.
- nl 2mo agoThey don't need $200B profit for the math to make sense. Where are you getting that? Anthropic is expected to IPO around $2T valuation. That's around half Google's value, and Google's profit is around $130B. So using the same P/E ratio as Google that implies $65B profit. Of course Google is a mature company and Anthropic is growing revenue faster than any company in history so you'd expect Anthropic to have a higher P/E ratio than Google which means a lower profit to justify that valuation. In any cay startups are valued on revenue rather than profit so that's the real number people will be looking at.
- 3ddda 2mo agoHurr durrr. 99.9% of you should stop doing valuation, especially since you don't know truly 'comparable firms' are. Lazy slop. Worse than LLMs.