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As someone who has made a living as an Indie developer for 20 years (creating Windows and Mac apps) I feel it is getting harder: https://successfulsoftware.net

As someone who has made a living as an Indie developer for 20 years (creating Windows and Mac apps) I feel it is getting harder: https://successfulsoftware.net/2025/12/22/is-the-golden-age-of-indie-software-over/ https://successfulsoftware.net/2025/12/22/is-the-golden-age-...

dd8601fn 2mo ago
You focused largely on the promotional aspect, though I think the product competition angle is more interesting. The other day I saw someone famous(ish) announce a new desktop application, to meaningful reception. Thirty minutes later I had the same application, in every meaningful way. Built, working, ready for distribution. It was just a test and I’m not about to sell it, but I can’t see how this doesn’t come down hard on indie developers. This example produced reasonably done swift using appropriate system libs… so while “slop” will be a thing people might ignore for now, I think the bar has to go way, way up for real developers.
- saulpw 2mo ago
  I don't see how you could verify "same application in every meaningful way" inside of 30 minutes. Even if the other fellow just vibed it up like you did, him caring about the product and doing thoughtful QA and actually using the application and making little tweaks and staking his reputation on it and committing to its ongoing maintenance is what matters. You may even have an identical application at the end of the day but I'll pay $20 for one that I'm better able to trust.
  - dd8601fn 2mo ago
    > I don't see how you could verify "same application in every meaningful way" inside of 30 minutes. That was not difficult. Though obviously I wouldn’t declare it so and actually ship it to paying people in 30 minutes. As for the rest of your point, that’s certainly going to be a fair assessment, much of the time, for now. But that wasn’t really the point. We’re already pretty close to being there on “just tell the machine what you want” for huge swaths of non-critical software. And I don’t think pressure from that is going to let up.
- hermitcrab 2mo ago
  >You focused largely on the promotional aspect, though I think the product competition angle is more interesting. They are linked. LLMs mean reduced barriers and more competition, which makes promotion harder.
williamsss 2mo ago
As someone who took years investing in a system to easily spin up indie projects before vibe coding was coined. It’s been crushing to have built quality projects that are now swallowed up by a tidal wave of AI slop. It may or may not be a great time to be a popular indie dev, but for the less known folks - it’s a lottery

dd8601fn 2mo ago

You focused largely on the promotional aspect, though I think the product competition angle is more interesting. The other day I saw someone famous(ish) announce a new desktop application, to meaningful reception. Thirty minutes later I had the same application, in every meaningful way. Built, working, ready for distribution. It was just a test and I’m not about to sell it, but I can’t see how this doesn’t come down hard on indie developers. This example produced reasonably done swift using appropriate system libs… so while “slop” will be a thing people might ignore for now, I think the bar has to go way, way up for real developers.

saulpw 2mo ago
I don't see how you could verify "same application in every meaningful way" inside of 30 minutes. Even if the other fellow just vibed it up like you did, him caring about the product and doing thoughtful QA and actually using the application and making little tweaks and staking his reputation on it and committing to its ongoing maintenance is what matters. You may even have an identical application at the end of the day but I'll pay $20 for one that I'm better able to trust.
- dd8601fn 2mo ago
  > I don't see how you could verify "same application in every meaningful way" inside of 30 minutes. That was not difficult. Though obviously I wouldn’t declare it so and actually ship it to paying people in 30 minutes. As for the rest of your point, that’s certainly going to be a fair assessment, much of the time, for now. But that wasn’t really the point. We’re already pretty close to being there on “just tell the machine what you want” for huge swaths of non-critical software. And I don’t think pressure from that is going to let up.
hermitcrab 2mo ago
>You focused largely on the promotional aspect, though I think the product competition angle is more interesting. They are linked. LLMs mean reduced barriers and more competition, which makes promotion harder.

williamsss 2mo ago

As someone who took years investing in a system to easily spin up indie projects before vibe coding was coined. It’s been crushing to have built quality projects that are now swallowed up by a tidal wave of AI slop. It may or may not be a great time to be a popular indie dev, but for the less known folks - it’s a lottery