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South Korea proposes talks to officially end war with North

65 points by thisislife2 2mo ago

thisislife2 2mo ago
How realistic is this? While North Korea has apparently recognised South Korea, the hostilities will not cease or end from the North Koreans unless South Korea stops hosting American military on its soil. But does South Korea feel confident enough to defend itself without the Americans? As a superpower, is the US willing to forego a military presence in that region? Under what conditions will China / Russia allow both side to repair their relationships? Both China and Russia really upped their ante against the South Koreans, by helping the North Koreans upgrade their military, when they made public their intention to join the AUKUS alliance ( https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3261039/first-japan-now-south-korea-confirms-aukus-talks-joining-defence-pact https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3261039/fir... ).
- shakna 2mo ago
  It may very well be that SK doesn't feel confident to defend themselves _with_ the USA on their soil. So the best option is to obviate the need.
  - CrzyLngPwd 2mo ago
    Especially given that the world has now witnessed (In the middle east) that the USA bases are just targets which will not help in defence since the US forces will flee, and the US aircraft carriers won't help much either, especially if NK has decent air defense.
metalman 2mo ago
what is south K up too? this has ZERO possibility of happening, is this so this is about some domestic/international politics framing NK as unreasonable and antagonistic so that they can buy more US weapons? or is the real issue that NK has forces embeded with the Russians who are are learning how to fight a now conventional but ultra nasty drone war and with the US becoming completly unreliable, SK is readying to make a LOT of concessions to NK?
- fakedang 2mo ago
  That doesn't seem logical at all. If it comes to an unconventional drone war, SK is the one country that could stand on its own and even obliterate the NK army. The North Koreans are currently getting exterminated as drone fodder in Ukraine, and I doubt there's very little knowledge transfer back home than what South Koreans already know. I think the deeper reason might have something to do with Chinese designs in North Korea. While China has been reticent to supply Russia, China will see North Korea as a defendant (even if they are the aggressors), and readily supply them with what they need. Ukraine vs Russia is just China vs China at this point.
  - ElProlactin 2mo ago
    > If it comes to an unconventional drone war, SK is the one country that could stand on its own and even obliterate the NK army And in what world do you think that a war between North and South Korea remains limited to an "unconventional drone war", especially if the North Koreans are being battered?
    - fakedang 2mo ago
      North Korea doesn't need to be battered - just neutered. Take away their artillery and nukes, and NK will be put on the defensive.
      - ElProlactin 2mo ago
        And exactly how do you take away their nukes?
        fakedang 2mo ago
        North Korea has an estimated 60 warheads. I'm sure SK has more than enough THAADs to deal with launched ones and the aerial capability to disable nuke sites.
        2mo ago
DuperPower 2mo ago
lol at foreigners instantly being against war ending
- Peanuts99 2mo ago
  Perhaps driven by the very low likelihood of anything positive coming out of this.
k_sze 2mo ago
No way SK is going to convince NK to abandon nukes. The point of having nukes is not to intimidate SK or JP. It is to deter the US.
- derelicta 2mo ago
  That's also how I see it. If they want long-lasting peace, it will be a nuclear-enforced one. The DPRK has witnessed way too many times in its lifetime what happens to countries that naively give up their nukes. The atom is still one of the best guarantors of national sovereignty.
- NetOpWibby 2mo ago
  Especially with a nut job like Drumpf at the helm. It’d be great to see a united Korea though.
  - wolvoleo 2mo ago
    Ending the war is one thing. Reunion, I don't see that happening in the next decades. Don't forget how much poverty and indoctrination is there. And who would govern the combined Korea? The two governments are worlds apart. Ending the war might enable them to grow towards each other. But that will take decades.
  - petre 2mo ago
    Not going to happen. China and Russia won't let it happen, since the DPRK is a buffer state. Kim has his nukes and doesn't want to lose power. Basically Soth Korea doesn't have any allies in the area, aside from US which has bases in Guam and Okinawa and has been unreliable under the current administration.
- vagrantJin 2mo ago
  Why should they give up their nukes? I'd like a rational, logically sound reason they should give up their nuclear research and or any war-heads already developed.
  - 2mo ago
deleted 2mo ago
[deleted]
Olumde 2mo ago
Not gonna happen. The Kim family need an enemy to justify their stay in power.
yongjik 2mo ago
As a South Korean, I don't like this news. Not because I'm against ending the war, but because I don't think there's any real chance of this happening. This is at best a distraction, and considering that there are a ton of domestic political issues Koreans are angry about right now (the president's poll rating was steadily falling for the past month or two), I have no idea who this is intended for. The most realistic outcome would be that nothing will come out of it, and it will be used by some opposing parties to paint the government as clueless, further eroding the president's popular support. To be fair, there are some clueless "inter-Korean peace at any cost" ideologues in the current government (and among supporters): maybe the current minister of unification, Chung Dong-young, is the best example. But I don't think President Lee himself is one of them. (He's largely pragmatic in most positions, if a bit shoot-from-the-hip type.)
- thisislife2 2mo ago
  Since you are a South Korean, perhaps you can give some insights on how factual is the claim that the recent attempted coup in South Korea was related to tensions (and the possibility of starting or preventing a war) with NK and that some politically active "Protestant South Koreans" converts do want to provoke a war with NK to defeat the "evil commies"? My source for the latter is this 2 year old article in the Russian media - Is North Korea about to attack the South while supplying troops for Russia? - https://www.rt.com/news/606267-speculations-north-korea-attack-south/ https://www.rt.com/news/606267-speculations-north-korea-atta... ...
  - yongjik 2mo ago
    I think a few things are mixed up. * First, ex-president Yoon was a drunkard idiot: he believed that he was surrounded by evil commies, who manipulated legislative election of 2024 to give the opposing Democratic (Minjoo) party a resounding victory, who would (in Yoon's mind) go on to sell the country to China. Or something like that. So he decided that the only way to "save Korea" from those evil commies is to declare martial law and purge the commies. * South Korea always had its share of evangelical protestant far right wingers, and sadly they have now become rabid supporters of Yoon (even now!) - Korea's version of MAGA. They maintain that all the delusional shit Yoon said are true, Korea is on the verge of falling to communism, and the only way to save Korea is put the commie usurper Lee into prison and reinstate Yoon as the rightful president of SK. * Yoon did try to provoke North Korea into attacking SK, presumably to use it as a pretext for his martial law, by deliberately flying drones into NK without precaution so that North Korea could find out. Recently, the court sentenced Yoon 30 years for that [1] (trying to start a war is a serious crime!), though the case is still ongoing. FWIW, North Korea didn't take the bait (thank god) - they have impeccable survival instincts. * So I think many parts of the RT article is true (I only skimmed it), though the motives might be a bit mixed up. South Korean military command does not want to start a war to defeat "evil commies": that would leave the whole peninsula in smoking ruins. We just had an idiot president who tried to take over the country in the stupidest means possible and failed. [1] https://www.hani.co.kr/arti/society/society_general/1263280.html https://www.hani.co.kr/arti/society/society_general/1263280.... (article in Korean)
TiredOfLife 2mo ago
North Korea is currently taking an expensive and effective training in modern warfare. While South Korea is singing kumbaya

65 points by thisislife2 2mo ago

How realistic is this? While North Korea has apparently recognised South Korea, the hostilities will not cease or end from the North Koreans unless South Korea stops hosting American military on its soil. But does South Korea feel confident enough to defend itself without the Americans? As a superpower, is the US willing to forego a military presence in that region? Under what conditions will China / Russia allow both side to repair their relationships? Both China and Russia really upped their ante against the South Koreans, by helping the North Koreans upgrade their military, when they made public their intention to join the AUKUS alliance ( https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3261039/first-japan-now-south-korea-confirms-aukus-talks-joining-defence-pact https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3261039/fir... ).

shakna 2mo ago
It may very well be that SK doesn't feel confident to defend themselves _with_ the USA on their soil. So the best option is to obviate the need.
- CrzyLngPwd 2mo ago
  Especially given that the world has now witnessed (In the middle east) that the USA bases are just targets which will not help in defence since the US forces will flee, and the US aircraft carriers won't help much either, especially if NK has decent air defense.

metalman 2mo ago

what is south K up too? this has ZERO possibility of happening, is this so this is about some domestic/international politics framing NK as unreasonable and antagonistic so that they can buy more US weapons? or is the real issue that NK has forces embeded with the Russians who are are learning how to fight a now conventional but ultra nasty drone war and with the US becoming completly unreliable, SK is readying to make a LOT of concessions to NK?

fakedang 2mo ago
That doesn't seem logical at all. If it comes to an unconventional drone war, SK is the one country that could stand on its own and even obliterate the NK army. The North Koreans are currently getting exterminated as drone fodder in Ukraine, and I doubt there's very little knowledge transfer back home than what South Koreans already know. I think the deeper reason might have something to do with Chinese designs in North Korea. While China has been reticent to supply Russia, China will see North Korea as a defendant (even if they are the aggressors), and readily supply them with what they need. Ukraine vs Russia is just China vs China at this point.
- ElProlactin 2mo ago
  > If it comes to an unconventional drone war, SK is the one country that could stand on its own and even obliterate the NK army And in what world do you think that a war between North and South Korea remains limited to an "unconventional drone war", especially if the North Koreans are being battered?
  - fakedang 2mo ago
    North Korea doesn't need to be battered - just neutered. Take away their artillery and nukes, and NK will be put on the defensive.
    - ElProlactin 2mo ago
      And exactly how do you take away their nukes?
      - fakedang 2mo ago
        North Korea has an estimated 60 warheads. I'm sure SK has more than enough THAADs to deal with launched ones and the aerial capability to disable nuke sites.
        2mo ago

DuperPower 2mo ago

lol at foreigners instantly being against war ending

Peanuts99 2mo ago
Perhaps driven by the very low likelihood of anything positive coming out of this.

k_sze 2mo ago

No way SK is going to convince NK to abandon nukes. The point of having nukes is not to intimidate SK or JP. It is to deter the US.

derelicta 2mo ago
That's also how I see it. If they want long-lasting peace, it will be a nuclear-enforced one. The DPRK has witnessed way too many times in its lifetime what happens to countries that naively give up their nukes. The atom is still one of the best guarantors of national sovereignty.
NetOpWibby 2mo ago
Especially with a nut job like Drumpf at the helm. It’d be great to see a united Korea though.
- wolvoleo 2mo ago
  Ending the war is one thing. Reunion, I don't see that happening in the next decades. Don't forget how much poverty and indoctrination is there. And who would govern the combined Korea? The two governments are worlds apart. Ending the war might enable them to grow towards each other. But that will take decades.
- petre 2mo ago
  Not going to happen. China and Russia won't let it happen, since the DPRK is a buffer state. Kim has his nukes and doesn't want to lose power. Basically Soth Korea doesn't have any allies in the area, aside from US which has bases in Guam and Okinawa and has been unreliable under the current administration.
vagrantJin 2mo ago
Why should they give up their nukes? I'd like a rational, logically sound reason they should give up their nuclear research and or any war-heads already developed.
- 2mo ago

deleted 2mo ago

[deleted]

Olumde 2mo ago

Not gonna happen. The Kim family need an enemy to justify their stay in power.

yongjik 2mo ago

As a South Korean, I don't like this news. Not because I'm against ending the war, but because I don't think there's any real chance of this happening. This is at best a distraction, and considering that there are a ton of domestic political issues Koreans are angry about right now (the president's poll rating was steadily falling for the past month or two), I have no idea who this is intended for. The most realistic outcome would be that nothing will come out of it, and it will be used by some opposing parties to paint the government as clueless, further eroding the president's popular support. To be fair, there are some clueless "inter-Korean peace at any cost" ideologues in the current government (and among supporters): maybe the current minister of unification, Chung Dong-young, is the best example. But I don't think President Lee himself is one of them. (He's largely pragmatic in most positions, if a bit shoot-from-the-hip type.)

thisislife2 2mo ago
Since you are a South Korean, perhaps you can give some insights on how factual is the claim that the recent attempted coup in South Korea was related to tensions (and the possibility of starting or preventing a war) with NK and that some politically active "Protestant South Koreans" converts do want to provoke a war with NK to defeat the "evil commies"? My source for the latter is this 2 year old article in the Russian media - Is North Korea about to attack the South while supplying troops for Russia? - https://www.rt.com/news/606267-speculations-north-korea-attack-south/ https://www.rt.com/news/606267-speculations-north-korea-atta... ...
- yongjik 2mo ago
  I think a few things are mixed up. * First, ex-president Yoon was a drunkard idiot: he believed that he was surrounded by evil commies, who manipulated legislative election of 2024 to give the opposing Democratic (Minjoo) party a resounding victory, who would (in Yoon's mind) go on to sell the country to China. Or something like that. So he decided that the only way to "save Korea" from those evil commies is to declare martial law and purge the commies. * South Korea always had its share of evangelical protestant far right wingers, and sadly they have now become rabid supporters of Yoon (even now!) - Korea's version of MAGA. They maintain that all the delusional shit Yoon said are true, Korea is on the verge of falling to communism, and the only way to save Korea is put the commie usurper Lee into prison and reinstate Yoon as the rightful president of SK. * Yoon did try to provoke North Korea into attacking SK, presumably to use it as a pretext for his martial law, by deliberately flying drones into NK without precaution so that North Korea could find out. Recently, the court sentenced Yoon 30 years for that [1] (trying to start a war is a serious crime!), though the case is still ongoing. FWIW, North Korea didn't take the bait (thank god) - they have impeccable survival instincts. * So I think many parts of the RT article is true (I only skimmed it), though the motives might be a bit mixed up. South Korean military command does not want to start a war to defeat "evil commies": that would leave the whole peninsula in smoking ruins. We just had an idiot president who tried to take over the country in the stupidest means possible and failed. [1] https://www.hani.co.kr/arti/society/society_general/1263280.html https://www.hani.co.kr/arti/society/society_general/1263280.... (article in Korean)

TiredOfLife 2mo ago

North Korea is currently taking an expensive and effective training in modern warfare. While South Korea is singing kumbaya