3 ms·

Nukes also cannot kill everyone. Nuclear winter was proven to not be based on solid evidence, the earth remains very habitable after all nukes have gone off.

Gud 2mo ago
Show me that proof please. So far the counter evidence has not been convincing. FWIW I don’t think nuclear war will annihilate us. But it won’t be pleasant.
- piloto_ciego 2mo ago
  Actually, I've seen the take that the previous poster has made too. The wikipedia page is pretty good IMO. Proof of a hypothetical future event is pretty hard to get, but here's the wiki rabbit hole (if you're anything like me you'll find this fascinating and spend the next couple hours clicking links - you're welcome!). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust#Likelihood_of_complete_human_extinction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust#Likelihood_o... Annie Jacobsen is awesome, her book about Area 51 was riveting, but I also cannot unsee "Capitalist Realism" and the idea that we keep picturing civilization-ending catastrophes because we don't want to go to work in the morning, and walking/biking everywhere and living in a small community is amazingly appealing to us at a base level. We yearn for the lifestyle of the apocalypse survivor, but none of us want to go through the apocalypse. Generally, I think we kind of say, "oh, it'll be the end of the world" because most of us (myself included) lack the imagination to really look beyond linear extrapolations of the status quo most of the time.
  - saulpw 2mo ago
    It's easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism.
    - piloto_ciego 2mo ago
      This is what I'm saying constantly to people, I recognize it makes me fantastically obnoxious, but also, I'm gesturing wildly to the things that are happening and yelling, "THINGS DON'T HAVE TO BE THIS WAY." Then again, I'm also building my cabin in the woods.
    - salawat 2mo ago
      Only if you're a capitalist. Upton Sinclair applies.
  - Gud 2mo ago
    Yes, so have I hence why I questioned it. From the wikipedia article you linked to: "More recent studies make use of modern global circulation models and far greater computer power than was available for the 1980s studies. A 2007 study examined the consequences of a global nuclear war involving moderate to large portions of the current global arsenal.[36] The study found cooling by about 12–20 °C in much of the core farming regions of the US, Canada, Europe, Russia and China and as much as 35 °C in parts of Russia for the first two summer growing seasons. The changes they found were also much longer-lasting than previously thought, because their new model better represented entry of soot aerosols in the upper stratosphere, where precipitation does not occur, and therefore clearance was on the order of 10 years.[26] In addition, they found that global cooling caused a weakening of the global hydrological cycle, reducing global precipitation by about 45%." So the current theory is that there will indeed be a "nuclear winter"? Seems pretty logical to me that if you blow up extreme amounts of particles into the stratosphere, that that will cause a reduction in energy that hits the surface from the sun... A 20C drop sounds pretty bad.

Gud 2mo ago

Show me that proof please. So far the counter evidence has not been convincing. FWIW I don’t think nuclear war will annihilate us. But it won’t be pleasant.

piloto_ciego 2mo ago
Actually, I've seen the take that the previous poster has made too. The wikipedia page is pretty good IMO. Proof of a hypothetical future event is pretty hard to get, but here's the wiki rabbit hole (if you're anything like me you'll find this fascinating and spend the next couple hours clicking links - you're welcome!). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust#Likelihood_of_complete_human_extinction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust#Likelihood_o... Annie Jacobsen is awesome, her book about Area 51 was riveting, but I also cannot unsee "Capitalist Realism" and the idea that we keep picturing civilization-ending catastrophes because we don't want to go to work in the morning, and walking/biking everywhere and living in a small community is amazingly appealing to us at a base level. We yearn for the lifestyle of the apocalypse survivor, but none of us want to go through the apocalypse. Generally, I think we kind of say, "oh, it'll be the end of the world" because most of us (myself included) lack the imagination to really look beyond linear extrapolations of the status quo most of the time.
- saulpw 2mo ago
  It's easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism.
  - piloto_ciego 2mo ago
    This is what I'm saying constantly to people, I recognize it makes me fantastically obnoxious, but also, I'm gesturing wildly to the things that are happening and yelling, "THINGS DON'T HAVE TO BE THIS WAY." Then again, I'm also building my cabin in the woods.
  - salawat 2mo ago
    Only if you're a capitalist. Upton Sinclair applies.
- Gud 2mo ago
  Yes, so have I hence why I questioned it. From the wikipedia article you linked to: "More recent studies make use of modern global circulation models and far greater computer power than was available for the 1980s studies. A 2007 study examined the consequences of a global nuclear war involving moderate to large portions of the current global arsenal.[36] The study found cooling by about 12–20 °C in much of the core farming regions of the US, Canada, Europe, Russia and China and as much as 35 °C in parts of Russia for the first two summer growing seasons. The changes they found were also much longer-lasting than previously thought, because their new model better represented entry of soot aerosols in the upper stratosphere, where precipitation does not occur, and therefore clearance was on the order of 10 years.[26] In addition, they found that global cooling caused a weakening of the global hydrological cycle, reducing global precipitation by about 45%." So the current theory is that there will indeed be a "nuclear winter"? Seems pretty logical to me that if you blow up extreme amounts of particles into the stratosphere, that that will cause a reduction in energy that hits the surface from the sun... A 20C drop sounds pretty bad.