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For Iran the long term result will be a playground without any children playing in it. Gulf oil exporters will move away from utilizing the Strait over the nex

by ericmay 2mo ago

For Iran the long term result will be a playground without any children playing in it. Gulf oil exporters will move away from utilizing the Strait over the next few years due to this continued threat - what will it be next time? Give us more chocolate or we’ll close the Strait again! ? You offended our Dear Leader, Straight closed for 4 days! Nobody is going to tolerate that. So eventually we will wind up with a Strait in which primarily Iranian oil would pass, except by then the US will, if it decides to, maintain control over the Strait and no longer allow Iran to push oil through while Gulf powers just use alternative means. It’s not necessarily the win that Iran or its supporters seem to think it is.

lefra 2mo ago
Sure if they use strait closures the same way Trump uses tariffs, everyone will try to not use it. But if they just collect fees that are cheaper than alternatives, ships will keep on going through.
- ericmay 2mo ago
  We would just blockade it then as we are now. Iran gets no money and doesn’t get to sell oil. They’ve already demonstrated that they use the Straight in the same way Trump uses tariffs. As you know, businesses don’t like uncertainty and it’s uncertain what whims or random “fees” or demands Iran will have in the future.
davidw 2mo ago
Hopefully part of the long term effect is people accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels altogether.
testing22321 2mo ago
> except by then the US will, if it decides to, maintain control over the Strait and no longer allow Iran to push oil through How exactly will the US do that? They’ve been trying for months, and can’t because Iran have the literal high ground. It’s accepted that Short of a massive land invasion committing millions of US troops, they can’t control the strait.
- ericmay 2mo ago
  The US controls it right now in the same way that Iran does. No ships are allowed through without permission. You’re aware we have blockaded the Straight, right?
  - adrian_b 2mo ago
    The problem is that USA does not have any more rights than Iran to declare a blockade. If this will continue for too long, other countries may decide that they want to pass through the strait no matter what USA says. Then what will USA do, declare war on everybody? Threaten to use nuclear weapons against those who want to use the strait? For decades, USA has used various blackmailing methods to force other countries to follow its policies, but nowadays most countries seek methods to free themselves from these constraints, so it is unclear if USA will be again successful in the future with such tactics.
    - ericmay 2mo ago
      > The problem is that USA does not have any more rights than Iran to declare a blockade. Ok so both countries are wrong for stopping maritime traffic then. > If this will continue for too long, other countries may decide that they want to pass through the strait no matter what USA says. Then what will USA do, declare war on everybody? Threaten to use nuclear weapons against those who want to use the strait? They won't for the same reason they don't do it in the Strait. Nobody is willing to risk their lives. The US has boarded multiple ships - you're aware of that right? So what exactly is the "world" going to do? If they can't come together and dislodge Iranian "control" of the Strait with what navy are they going to float over and dislodge the United States with? Be realistic. > For decades, USA has used various blackmailing methods to force other countries to follow its policies, but nowadays most countries seek methods to free themselves from these constraints, so it is unclear if USA will be again successful in the future with such tactics. Many countries engage in coercion where they can including China, the EU, and others. I don't think most countries are seeking methods to free themselves from any constraints here. Also what blackmail technique are you referring to that America is engaging in re: "future tactics"?
  - 2mo ago
lokar 2mo ago
More than oil goes through the strait. And some of the producers don’t have another way out except via a neighboring country.
- ericmay 2mo ago
  For now but they can build pipelines and such. Iraq is discussing sending one through Syria. I’m not sure what other products transit the Straight from memory but the only one that matters for America and the global economy too is oil and so as long as that’s flowing nobody really cares about Iran threatening ships in the Straight. Eventually the only ships they can threaten will be theirs, but they won’t be allowed to leave. Oh well.
  - croes 2mo ago
    LNG goes through the strait too and pipelines are an easy target for sabotage
    - ericmay 2mo ago
      Sure I should have been more specific when I said oil. Those pipelines will have to be redirected or Iran will just have to leave them be. Blowing them up would result in reciprocal action of blowing up Iranian oil and gas facilities. It goes both ways.
      - lokar 2mo ago
        But isn’t that the situation we are in now? Both side can hurt the other, without much chance of a real military loss. So it’s a contest for who can withstand more pain for longer. It seems Iran wins that contest.
        ericmay 2mo ago
        Well we hurt them much more. For Iran oil is by far their biggest economic activity, and it hurts the regime more. For the US it's higher prices. It actually screwed with the rest of the world quite a bit more, Asia in particular given that the vast majority of exports from the Strait go to to Asia. Iran doesn't really win that contest. Is your day-to-day intolerable? No it's not. Is the day-to-day of the average Iranian intolerable? No but it's trending that way.
croes 2mo ago
Easier said than done. And it’s not only oil, it’s also LNG and Qatar is one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, and virtually all of its LNG currently has to pass through Hormuz. That would be long and expensive infrastructure constructions. The straight wasn’t a problem before the President of Peace
- ericmay 2mo ago
  Definitely easier said than done but necessary nonetheless. > The straight wasn’t a problem before the President of Peace I don’t think this is true. Iran has already mined the Straight before when something or another didn’t go their way, and they were already building up missile and drone capacity to make their shutdown even less manageable by regional powers and American forces. Had they been granted say another 2-3 years of buildup we really couldn’t have done anything and would have probably had to accept Iranian control. You also can’t divorce this specific issue from Iran’s general behavior: helping to kill Ukrainians, killing innocent people in the Middle East and creating wars in countries like Syria, and other things like murdering over 30,000 of their own people. They also still stone homosexuals to death. The Straight and their attempt to hold global oil production hostage is just another item on the long list of grievances.
  - swat535 2mo ago
    > murdering over 30,000 of their own people Iranian here, please give me the names of the 30,000 dead people so we can corroborate your claims with reality. I have no lover for IRGC, my own family members were severly harmed by them but this claim is of 30k/40k dead is false. Next, regarding the United State's ability to "block' the Strait: If the previous blockade was successful, it would have never been lifted. Regarding the causalities: In this war alone, United State's have killed more than 3k Iranians, bombed schools, hospitals, bridges and other civilian infrastructure. IRAQ war resulted in 211k civilian deaths thanks to United States. I could go further back but I'll stop here. I'm not saying Iran hasn't harmed anyone but simply on numbers alone, I would be more concerned about US as an adversary than Iran if I was a sovereign nation. > The Straight and their attempt to hold global oil production hostage Iran repeatedly warned everyone that if it is attacked, the Strait would be closed. TRUMP decided that we apparently needed to be "freed" and caused a global catastrophe. I like how you you shift the blame here. Further, any attempts at diplomacy between US and Iran has failed because of US. United States attacked Iran during negotiations or reneged the deal. Here is a reminder for you: 1. May 2018 - TRUMP wrecks the JCPOA that Obama negotiated (after 20 months of difficult talks from both sides) 2. June 2025 - Us attacks nuclear facilities, weeks after negotiations of April. 3. February 2026 - US strikes Iran during indirect talks in Switzerland 4. Multiple rounds of strikes by US during the 60 day "negotiation", US ignoring everything in the MOU, including trying to covertly move ships from the Oman side I'm ignoring all other incidents of assassinating Iranian scientists and other diplomats. Clearly, one side is not interested in peace.

by ericmay 2mo ago

lefra 2mo ago

Sure if they use strait closures the same way Trump uses tariffs, everyone will try to not use it. But if they just collect fees that are cheaper than alternatives, ships will keep on going through.

ericmay 2mo ago
We would just blockade it then as we are now. Iran gets no money and doesn’t get to sell oil. They’ve already demonstrated that they use the Straight in the same way Trump uses tariffs. As you know, businesses don’t like uncertainty and it’s uncertain what whims or random “fees” or demands Iran will have in the future.

davidw 2mo ago

Hopefully part of the long term effect is people accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels altogether.

testing22321 2mo ago

> except by then the US will, if it decides to, maintain control over the Strait and no longer allow Iran to push oil through How exactly will the US do that? They’ve been trying for months, and can’t because Iran have the literal high ground. It’s accepted that Short of a massive land invasion committing millions of US troops, they can’t control the strait.

ericmay 2mo ago
The US controls it right now in the same way that Iran does. No ships are allowed through without permission. You’re aware we have blockaded the Straight, right?
- adrian_b 2mo ago
  The problem is that USA does not have any more rights than Iran to declare a blockade. If this will continue for too long, other countries may decide that they want to pass through the strait no matter what USA says. Then what will USA do, declare war on everybody? Threaten to use nuclear weapons against those who want to use the strait? For decades, USA has used various blackmailing methods to force other countries to follow its policies, but nowadays most countries seek methods to free themselves from these constraints, so it is unclear if USA will be again successful in the future with such tactics.
  - ericmay 2mo ago
    > The problem is that USA does not have any more rights than Iran to declare a blockade. Ok so both countries are wrong for stopping maritime traffic then. > If this will continue for too long, other countries may decide that they want to pass through the strait no matter what USA says. Then what will USA do, declare war on everybody? Threaten to use nuclear weapons against those who want to use the strait? They won't for the same reason they don't do it in the Strait. Nobody is willing to risk their lives. The US has boarded multiple ships - you're aware of that right? So what exactly is the "world" going to do? If they can't come together and dislodge Iranian "control" of the Strait with what navy are they going to float over and dislodge the United States with? Be realistic. > For decades, USA has used various blackmailing methods to force other countries to follow its policies, but nowadays most countries seek methods to free themselves from these constraints, so it is unclear if USA will be again successful in the future with such tactics. Many countries engage in coercion where they can including China, the EU, and others. I don't think most countries are seeking methods to free themselves from any constraints here. Also what blackmail technique are you referring to that America is engaging in re: "future tactics"?
- 2mo ago

lokar 2mo ago

More than oil goes through the strait. And some of the producers don’t have another way out except via a neighboring country.

ericmay 2mo ago
For now but they can build pipelines and such. Iraq is discussing sending one through Syria. I’m not sure what other products transit the Straight from memory but the only one that matters for America and the global economy too is oil and so as long as that’s flowing nobody really cares about Iran threatening ships in the Straight. Eventually the only ships they can threaten will be theirs, but they won’t be allowed to leave. Oh well.
- croes 2mo ago
  LNG goes through the strait too and pipelines are an easy target for sabotage
  - ericmay 2mo ago
    Sure I should have been more specific when I said oil. Those pipelines will have to be redirected or Iran will just have to leave them be. Blowing them up would result in reciprocal action of blowing up Iranian oil and gas facilities. It goes both ways.
    - lokar 2mo ago
      But isn’t that the situation we are in now? Both side can hurt the other, without much chance of a real military loss. So it’s a contest for who can withstand more pain for longer. It seems Iran wins that contest.
      - ericmay 2mo ago
        Well we hurt them much more. For Iran oil is by far their biggest economic activity, and it hurts the regime more. For the US it's higher prices. It actually screwed with the rest of the world quite a bit more, Asia in particular given that the vast majority of exports from the Strait go to to Asia. Iran doesn't really win that contest. Is your day-to-day intolerable? No it's not. Is the day-to-day of the average Iranian intolerable? No but it's trending that way.

croes 2mo ago

Easier said than done. And it’s not only oil, it’s also LNG and Qatar is one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, and virtually all of its LNG currently has to pass through Hormuz. That would be long and expensive infrastructure constructions. The straight wasn’t a problem before the President of Peace

ericmay 2mo ago
Definitely easier said than done but necessary nonetheless. > The straight wasn’t a problem before the President of Peace I don’t think this is true. Iran has already mined the Straight before when something or another didn’t go their way, and they were already building up missile and drone capacity to make their shutdown even less manageable by regional powers and American forces. Had they been granted say another 2-3 years of buildup we really couldn’t have done anything and would have probably had to accept Iranian control. You also can’t divorce this specific issue from Iran’s general behavior: helping to kill Ukrainians, killing innocent people in the Middle East and creating wars in countries like Syria, and other things like murdering over 30,000 of their own people. They also still stone homosexuals to death. The Straight and their attempt to hold global oil production hostage is just another item on the long list of grievances.
- swat535 2mo ago
  > murdering over 30,000 of their own people Iranian here, please give me the names of the 30,000 dead people so we can corroborate your claims with reality. I have no lover for IRGC, my own family members were severly harmed by them but this claim is of 30k/40k dead is false. Next, regarding the United State's ability to "block' the Strait: If the previous blockade was successful, it would have never been lifted. Regarding the causalities: In this war alone, United State's have killed more than 3k Iranians, bombed schools, hospitals, bridges and other civilian infrastructure. IRAQ war resulted in 211k civilian deaths thanks to United States. I could go further back but I'll stop here. I'm not saying Iran hasn't harmed anyone but simply on numbers alone, I would be more concerned about US as an adversary than Iran if I was a sovereign nation. > The Straight and their attempt to hold global oil production hostage Iran repeatedly warned everyone that if it is attacked, the Strait would be closed. TRUMP decided that we apparently needed to be "freed" and caused a global catastrophe. I like how you you shift the blame here. Further, any attempts at diplomacy between US and Iran has failed because of US. United States attacked Iran during negotiations or reneged the deal. Here is a reminder for you: 1. May 2018 - TRUMP wrecks the JCPOA that Obama negotiated (after 20 months of difficult talks from both sides) 2. June 2025 - Us attacks nuclear facilities, weeks after negotiations of April. 3. February 2026 - US strikes Iran during indirect talks in Switzerland 4. Multiple rounds of strikes by US during the 60 day "negotiation", US ignoring everything in the MOU, including trying to covertly move ships from the Oman side I'm ignoring all other incidents of assassinating Iranian scientists and other diplomats. Clearly, one side is not interested in peace.