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"At some point" Hinton said 10 years, what do you say? Could you maybe take from his prediction being wrong that you should practice some humility? Of all the

"At some point" Hinton said 10 years, what do you say? Could you maybe take from his prediction being wrong that you should practice some humility? Of all the pro-AI arguments people make, the "eventually it will happen" one is one of the strangest. Yes, and eventually the sun will blow up, so what the fuck are we talking about here? Most smart people ten years ago thought truck drivers, cab drivers, radiologists, and customer support would be obsolete by now, hasn't happened.

HDThoreaun 1mo ago
Where Hinton was right: AI has and will continue to significantly change the field of radiology including making radiologists more productive. Where Hinton was wrong: He figured if each radiologist could do twice as much work we'd only need half as many and therefore there would be an oversupply of them. Instead what happened is we now do three times as much radiology. I went over the economic reasons for this in the other comment. I dont think its correct to say Hinton was wrong on his core claim that AI will radically change radiology, he was just wrong about what that looked like.
- suttontom 1mo ago
  He said that "People should stop training radiologists now" because there were enough radiologists already and the profession would be obsolete in the future. He said nothing about productivity or getting more work done. He said radiologists would be replaced. He was arrogant and didn't understand the scope of what radiologists actually do, which is more than just look at pixels. It's obvious that deep learning did/would radically change the part of any job that required analysis of patterns or images. The core point of the OP is exactly the claim you're making, which is that you seem to think that all a radiologist does is either look at images or "sign off" on what AI has done after looking at the pixels.
  - HDThoreaun 1mo ago
    Radio0logists have been replaced by AI. Its just that we do so much more radiology now that we need way more of them

HDThoreaun 1mo ago

Where Hinton was right: AI has and will continue to significantly change the field of radiology including making radiologists more productive. Where Hinton was wrong: He figured if each radiologist could do twice as much work we'd only need half as many and therefore there would be an oversupply of them. Instead what happened is we now do three times as much radiology. I went over the economic reasons for this in the other comment. I dont think its correct to say Hinton was wrong on his core claim that AI will radically change radiology, he was just wrong about what that looked like.

suttontom 1mo ago
He said that "People should stop training radiologists now" because there were enough radiologists already and the profession would be obsolete in the future. He said nothing about productivity or getting more work done. He said radiologists would be replaced. He was arrogant and didn't understand the scope of what radiologists actually do, which is more than just look at pixels. It's obvious that deep learning did/would radically change the part of any job that required analysis of patterns or images. The core point of the OP is exactly the claim you're making, which is that you seem to think that all a radiologist does is either look at images or "sign off" on what AI has done after looking at the pixels.
- HDThoreaun 1mo ago
  Radio0logists have been replaced by AI. Its just that we do so much more radiology now that we need way more of them