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> Residential demand is only down by 6% and part of that is likely due to the effective ban on gas in new residential construction which started in 2023 in Vict

> Residential demand is only down by 6% and part of that is likely due to the effective ban on gas in new residential construction which started in 2023 in Victoria. Prior to 2023 residential gas usage was increasing. There's a lot of people who would get gas if only it were available. My house (in NSW), the gas main ends two streets away, they won't connect me unless I paid them some insane amount of money ($100K or whatever) to extend it to us. My father (different part of NSW), his neighbour had gas, but the gas main stopped outside his neighbours house, and it would have cost him thousands to get it extended so he could connect; then his neighbour on the other side paid those thousands, and they extended the gas main right past his front door, and then he could get connected for $500. Anyway, I think the measured demand isn't always the same as the real demand. Also, there's still a decent chance the Victorian government loses the state election this November–although with Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan, it is less of a sure thing than it was–and the Liberals have already said they will wind back the new gas connection ban.

stubish 2mo ago
With gas getting more and more expensive here in Victoria, and electricity prices plummeting and already free if you get a decent sized battery, the gas connection ban seems mostly pointless. Nobody will pay $300/year for the connection (+installation) so they can have the privilege of paying for their heating and cooking, and even without a battery you are still looking at 3-4 times the cost with gas heating vs. electric heating with a COP of 3-5. It may become legal, but nothing would change unless they also subsidize the gas providers to lay pipes and keep the existing ones working, because it just wouldn't be profitable to them otherwise. Energy retailers (resellers) already don't want the business, with a number of them electricity only and the rest just doing it as an incentive to attract customers to their electricity offers.
- skissane 2mo ago
  A lot of people still prefer gas stoves for cooking Yes you can get bottled LPG gas, but it is a pain – you worry about running out, you have to call up and get them to deliver it. With piped gas you just set up a direct debit for the bill and never think about it ever again. Also, some people prefer gas heaters because it is a different kind of heat. My father replaced his wood combustion heater with a gas one, even though he already had reverse cycle air-conditioning. Maybe just using the air conditioner would have been cheaper (he already has rooftop solar–I don't think he has a battery, but could easily put one in), but it wasn't what he wanted.
  - stubish 2mo ago
    Key words here are 'some people' and 'prefer'. I think this causes prices to spiral up (but this might be papered over by government subsidies). Do you prefer gas enough to pay $300/year for the connection fee? Or will you take the less-preferred but economically more palatable option and disconnect? And everyone who disconnects drives the prices higher for the fewer holdouts. Until retailers and suppliers pull the plug because there is no profit in it, and most people won't support bail out subsidies for the some people. For your father's gas heating, this really sounds like an emotional decision. Modern gas heating produces the same heating as reverse cycle, where air is passed over a hot bit of metal and expelled into the room. One bit of metal is heated by an enclosed and externally ventilated flame and the other bit of metal is heated by a heat pump, but the interior side is practically the same. He might be paying hundreds or thousands of dollars a year because the fan in the gas heater happens to blow the hot air more where he wanted it or more where he was used to it.
    - skissane 2mo ago
      > For your father's gas heating, this really sounds like an emotional decision. Modern gas heating produces the same heating as reverse cycle, where air is passed over a hot bit of metal and expelled into the room. One bit of metal is heated by an enclosed and externally ventilated flame and the other bit of metal is heated by a heat pump, but the interior side is practically the same. No, it literally isn't. The reverse cycle air con just blows hot air into the room–it is purely convective. The gas heater console provides radiant heating as well. Also, the air feels different. Reverse cycle air con tends to deliver a higher volume of air at a lower temperature; gas heaters (especially if we are talking about console units as opposed to ducted systems) tend to deliver less air, but hotter air. It feels different on the skin.
    - frrlpp 2mo ago
      I think you never been near a natural gas heather.
- ZeroGravitas 2mo ago
  The ban isn't pointless. It's a network and the prices are based on assumptions nearly everyone connecting and staying connected for decades paying off the costs a little at a time. Once that assumption breaks you need to avoid the costs being foisted onto people unexpectedly. Any reasonable approach is effectively a ban at that point, like paying upfront for the whole expected lifetime cost.

stubish 2mo ago

With gas getting more and more expensive here in Victoria, and electricity prices plummeting and already free if you get a decent sized battery, the gas connection ban seems mostly pointless. Nobody will pay $300/year for the connection (+installation) so they can have the privilege of paying for their heating and cooking, and even without a battery you are still looking at 3-4 times the cost with gas heating vs. electric heating with a COP of 3-5. It may become legal, but nothing would change unless they also subsidize the gas providers to lay pipes and keep the existing ones working, because it just wouldn't be profitable to them otherwise. Energy retailers (resellers) already don't want the business, with a number of them electricity only and the rest just doing it as an incentive to attract customers to their electricity offers.

skissane 2mo ago
A lot of people still prefer gas stoves for cooking Yes you can get bottled LPG gas, but it is a pain – you worry about running out, you have to call up and get them to deliver it. With piped gas you just set up a direct debit for the bill and never think about it ever again. Also, some people prefer gas heaters because it is a different kind of heat. My father replaced his wood combustion heater with a gas one, even though he already had reverse cycle air-conditioning. Maybe just using the air conditioner would have been cheaper (he already has rooftop solar–I don't think he has a battery, but could easily put one in), but it wasn't what he wanted.
- stubish 2mo ago
  Key words here are 'some people' and 'prefer'. I think this causes prices to spiral up (but this might be papered over by government subsidies). Do you prefer gas enough to pay $300/year for the connection fee? Or will you take the less-preferred but economically more palatable option and disconnect? And everyone who disconnects drives the prices higher for the fewer holdouts. Until retailers and suppliers pull the plug because there is no profit in it, and most people won't support bail out subsidies for the some people. For your father's gas heating, this really sounds like an emotional decision. Modern gas heating produces the same heating as reverse cycle, where air is passed over a hot bit of metal and expelled into the room. One bit of metal is heated by an enclosed and externally ventilated flame and the other bit of metal is heated by a heat pump, but the interior side is practically the same. He might be paying hundreds or thousands of dollars a year because the fan in the gas heater happens to blow the hot air more where he wanted it or more where he was used to it.
  - skissane 2mo ago
    > For your father's gas heating, this really sounds like an emotional decision. Modern gas heating produces the same heating as reverse cycle, where air is passed over a hot bit of metal and expelled into the room. One bit of metal is heated by an enclosed and externally ventilated flame and the other bit of metal is heated by a heat pump, but the interior side is practically the same. No, it literally isn't. The reverse cycle air con just blows hot air into the room–it is purely convective. The gas heater console provides radiant heating as well. Also, the air feels different. Reverse cycle air con tends to deliver a higher volume of air at a lower temperature; gas heaters (especially if we are talking about console units as opposed to ducted systems) tend to deliver less air, but hotter air. It feels different on the skin.
  - frrlpp 2mo ago
    I think you never been near a natural gas heather.
ZeroGravitas 2mo ago
The ban isn't pointless. It's a network and the prices are based on assumptions nearly everyone connecting and staying connected for decades paying off the costs a little at a time. Once that assumption breaks you need to avoid the costs being foisted onto people unexpectedly. Any reasonable approach is effectively a ban at that point, like paying upfront for the whole expected lifetime cost.