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Predictions that are based on "no breakthroughs, no significant capability changes with scaling this year" might fail too.
by red75prime 2mo ago
Predictions that are based on "no breakthroughs, no significant capability changes with scaling this year" might fail too.
- gwerbin 2mo agoI'm not saying we won't have breakthroughs or significant capability changes. I'm saying that any reasonable expected rate of breakthroughs is not enough to maintain exponential R&D effort and to have it translate into exponential progress towards AGI, unless it's an absolutely monumental discovery on par with the GPT LLM itself. It would be impossible to predict, and it would be totally fallacious to credit this author with being a visionary if such a discovery does in fact arise.
- red75prime 2mo ago> I'm saying that any reasonable expected rate of breakthroughs is not enough to maintain exponential R&D effort "Any reasonable expected rate" does a lot of work here. For example, I haven't expected LLM contributions to open math problem that early.