A lot of especially the US market needs high oil prices to justify production cost. Some refiners might actually reduce capacity rather than sell below cost lev

A lot of especially the US market needs high oil prices to justify production cost. Some refiners might actually reduce capacity rather than sell below cost levels or at lower margins. The reality is probably going to be lots of price uncertainty (even more than today) and increasingly flaky supply chains as refiners and oil producers gradually reduce capacity to keep prices high enough to stay in business. As that happens, investments in refineries become more risky as well. Because if you can't rely on lucrative fuel sales anymore, that's a big problem for long term viability of a refinery. Before cars started burning petrol at scale, refiners were occasionally dumping fuel in rivers. It was just a worthless by product. All the money was in things like kerosene.