4 ms·

It's a disappointing list for such a grandiose title. Nearly every single thing listed will be achievable in the next 20-30 years. It's reminiscent of the Frenc

by geuis 14y ago

It's a disappointing list for such a grandiose title. Nearly every single thing listed will be achievable in the next 20-30 years. It's reminiscent of the French predictions of life 100 years later, 100 years ago. http://singularityhub.com/2012/10/15/19th-century-french-artists-predicted-the-world-of-the-future-in-this-series-of-postcards/ http://singularityhub.com/2012/10/15/19th-century-french-art... I would personally like to see some people come up with zany ideas. It's really hard to try and think that far ahead, given how much has changed in the last 100 years. Computation should be everywhere, along with intelligent "software". Quotes because those entities might not like the phrase "software". I wouldn't. Beyond that, it's hard to guess. Most predictions don't take culture into account. Technology and culture change and shape each other. Culture may be radically different in 100 years. Kind of like Egyptian culture can be demarcated before and after the rise of Islaam. Longer than 100 years, but gets across the idea. My gut predictions are about what wont happen. Civilization won't collapse. Global warming will have some change but won't kill all seaside cities. This is because either through market forces (likely) or unified global political action (unlikely), we fix it. Wars: check. Pandemic plague: no. Space stuff: check. I general, try not to say what won't happen. Be like Star Trek in the sixties. Propose what seems futuristic to inspire people, and they'll figure out how to do it.

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stygianguest 14y ago
Indeed a disappointing list. A positive (logically, not ethically) prediction from my side: In 100 years, the earth will have a smaller population than now (6 Billion), concentrated in clusters of smallish cities (as opposed to mega-cities). Nature will be reconquering much of the world that has been devastated by climate change and the desperate attempts to grow food by starving populations. Society will be heavily stratified, with a perpetually unemployed lower class living of the state with minimal rights and opportunities. Class distinctions are amplified by biotechnological advances accessible only to those with money and power. Surveillance will be ubiquitous and anonymity will be non-existant for all but the most technologically savvy. Most countries will be governed by some pseudo-democratic system. Some descendant of humanity, be it genetically enhanced men or our electro-mechanical children, will have colonized asteroids. Moreover, they will be sending out extrasolar expeditions following the probes they have sent out 50 years earlier. I must be in a bad mood today. Also, I didn't follow your advice.
- personlurking 14y ago
  I think things will be a bit similar to the setting of the 2003 film Code 46 w/ Tim Robbins. "It is the not-too-distant future. The population is divided between those who live "inside", in high-density cities physically separated from "outside", where a poor underclass live. Access to and travel between the cities is highly restricted, and regulated through the use of health cover documents, known as "papelles" in the global pidgin language of the day (which comprises elements of English, Spanish, French, Arabic, Italian, Farsi and Mandarin). Most residents of the cities venture outside at night and remain indoors during the day, as direct sunlight has come to be thought of as hazardous to their health. However, many residents inside and outside the cities still work and venture outdoors during the daytime hours (as seen on multiple occasions throughout the film). The form of government appears to be authoritarian in nature and at least somewhat dystopian. Society is regulated by various "codes". The eponymous code of the movie title prohibits "genetically incestuous reproduction", which may occur as a result of the various medical technologies which have become commonplace, such as cloning."
- sturadnidge 14y ago
  Negative predictions are quite interesting IMHO, shame we don't see more of them in pop media. They could've at least mentioned 2038 in this one.
KaoruAoiShiho 14y ago
Allow me to make my list of broad predictions that doesn't have to do with gadgets. I expect near-term singularity so my list is pre-singularity, 2040ish going by Ray Kurzweil, could be earlier or later. 1. Massive Population growth, 50-100 billion people on the planet. Not due to natural population growth (which will collapse), but due to cloning and factory production of humans. It seems unimaginable in today's US political climate but there are other countries in the world which do not have the same moral qualms. 2. Incredibly improved education / work assignment systems. Today we go through a K-12 system + many years of tertiary education in order to gain a general education that's only somewhat suited for the tasks we're going to do. The advent of internet based education means we're going to be able to closely target the training with the job in an incredibly efficient way. This does not mean that people will lose general knowledge or become stupider. It means competence and work satisfaction will increase, and people's ability to hop careers will increase, leading to more diversity in people's lives. 3. Biological immortality or close to it. The same technology that enables cloning will enable replacement body parts for every part of the body. Diseases like Parking-sons will be cured. 4. AI everywhere. Today weak, specific, non-generalized AI run things like warehouses and farms. Tomorrow they'll run transportation, buildings, restaurants and wal-mart, datacenters, factories that build widgets and factories that build factories, write and grade test questions, predict what we'll do and help us do them before we need to ala Google Now. In short AI will be ubiquitous and very very useful if not quite generalized. 5. Huge risk-taking. People are going to experiment, try new and dangerous things, in incredibly exciting ways, if only because we have a huge amount of people. 6. Humongous innovation and economic growth. I'm talking 50-100% annual growth. Today US (and much of the world's) economic growth is so low because of our slowness to embrace new technology and rejection of important technology. This will change, if only because of global competition. 7. Most people will be volunteers in the work of building things, and that work will be done exclusively in virtual realities. Most products will be tested out and deployed first in virtual worlds before being printed into the physical world. 8. Most people will be thought of as "unemployed" by today's standards but they'll feel that they are gainfully employed and deserve oodles of money (and they'll be right). 9. The currency of choice will not be the USD (nor the Yuan nor Euro). 10. I don't know if Mars will be terraformed yet but if it is or we have huge colonies then the population estimate could be at 2x what I said in #1.
DennisP 14y ago
What market forces? The trouble with global warming is it's a tragedy-of-the-commons situation.

by geuis 14y ago

deleted 14y ago

[deleted]

stygianguest 14y ago

Indeed a disappointing list. A positive (logically, not ethically) prediction from my side: In 100 years, the earth will have a smaller population than now (6 Billion), concentrated in clusters of smallish cities (as opposed to mega-cities). Nature will be reconquering much of the world that has been devastated by climate change and the desperate attempts to grow food by starving populations. Society will be heavily stratified, with a perpetually unemployed lower class living of the state with minimal rights and opportunities. Class distinctions are amplified by biotechnological advances accessible only to those with money and power. Surveillance will be ubiquitous and anonymity will be non-existant for all but the most technologically savvy. Most countries will be governed by some pseudo-democratic system. Some descendant of humanity, be it genetically enhanced men or our electro-mechanical children, will have colonized asteroids. Moreover, they will be sending out extrasolar expeditions following the probes they have sent out 50 years earlier. I must be in a bad mood today. Also, I didn't follow your advice.

personlurking 14y ago
I think things will be a bit similar to the setting of the 2003 film Code 46 w/ Tim Robbins. "It is the not-too-distant future. The population is divided between those who live "inside", in high-density cities physically separated from "outside", where a poor underclass live. Access to and travel between the cities is highly restricted, and regulated through the use of health cover documents, known as "papelles" in the global pidgin language of the day (which comprises elements of English, Spanish, French, Arabic, Italian, Farsi and Mandarin). Most residents of the cities venture outside at night and remain indoors during the day, as direct sunlight has come to be thought of as hazardous to their health. However, many residents inside and outside the cities still work and venture outdoors during the daytime hours (as seen on multiple occasions throughout the film). The form of government appears to be authoritarian in nature and at least somewhat dystopian. Society is regulated by various "codes". The eponymous code of the movie title prohibits "genetically incestuous reproduction", which may occur as a result of the various medical technologies which have become commonplace, such as cloning."
sturadnidge 14y ago
Negative predictions are quite interesting IMHO, shame we don't see more of them in pop media. They could've at least mentioned 2038 in this one.

KaoruAoiShiho 14y ago

Allow me to make my list of broad predictions that doesn't have to do with gadgets. I expect near-term singularity so my list is pre-singularity, 2040ish going by Ray Kurzweil, could be earlier or later. 1. Massive Population growth, 50-100 billion people on the planet. Not due to natural population growth (which will collapse), but due to cloning and factory production of humans. It seems unimaginable in today's US political climate but there are other countries in the world which do not have the same moral qualms. 2. Incredibly improved education / work assignment systems. Today we go through a K-12 system + many years of tertiary education in order to gain a general education that's only somewhat suited for the tasks we're going to do. The advent of internet based education means we're going to be able to closely target the training with the job in an incredibly efficient way. This does not mean that people will lose general knowledge or become stupider. It means competence and work satisfaction will increase, and people's ability to hop careers will increase, leading to more diversity in people's lives. 3. Biological immortality or close to it. The same technology that enables cloning will enable replacement body parts for every part of the body. Diseases like Parking-sons will be cured. 4. AI everywhere. Today weak, specific, non-generalized AI run things like warehouses and farms. Tomorrow they'll run transportation, buildings, restaurants and wal-mart, datacenters, factories that build widgets and factories that build factories, write and grade test questions, predict what we'll do and help us do them before we need to ala Google Now. In short AI will be ubiquitous and very very useful if not quite generalized. 5. Huge risk-taking. People are going to experiment, try new and dangerous things, in incredibly exciting ways, if only because we have a huge amount of people. 6. Humongous innovation and economic growth. I'm talking 50-100% annual growth. Today US (and much of the world's) economic growth is so low because of our slowness to embrace new technology and rejection of important technology. This will change, if only because of global competition. 7. Most people will be volunteers in the work of building things, and that work will be done exclusively in virtual realities. Most products will be tested out and deployed first in virtual worlds before being printed into the physical world. 8. Most people will be thought of as "unemployed" by today's standards but they'll feel that they are gainfully employed and deserve oodles of money (and they'll be right). 9. The currency of choice will not be the USD (nor the Yuan nor Euro). 10. I don't know if Mars will be terraformed yet but if it is or we have huge colonies then the population estimate could be at 2x what I said in #1.

DennisP 14y ago

What market forces? The trouble with global warming is it's a tragedy-of-the-commons situation.