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The problem with fast feedback loops is that they filter out long term signals. The problem with data driven decision making is that data is numeric, and the ac

by hliyan 2mo ago

The problem with fast feedback loops is that they filter out long term signals. The problem with data driven decision making is that data is numeric, and the act of counting is necessarily an act of approximation, by which we erase the difference between objects or events in order to bucket them into a category so that they can be counted. So the kind of dashboards that modern managers demand, offer nothing but the most obvious, short term "insights", that you might as well eliminate the man in the middle and feed the data directly into a set of simple decision rules.

geye1234 2mo ago
> The problem with data driven decision making is that data is numeric, and the act of counting is necessarily an act of approximation, by which we erase the difference between objects or events in order to bucket them into a category so that they can be counted. Yes, this is exactly right. To put it another way: When we quantify something, we abstract away everything about that thing that is not quantifiable. So our thinking is only about a tiny aspect of that thing's existence.
- sseagull 2mo ago
  Everyone quotes Goodhart's law, but I think the McNamara fallacy is even more important nowadays. It should be read aloud to every CEO every day. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McNamara_fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McNamara_fallacy TLDR: Making a decision based on only qualitative data, and therefore ignoring qualitative information and observations, can lead to bad outcomes. Not everything that is important can be easily measured.
  - waldarbeiter 2mo ago
    > Making a decision based on only qualitative data I suppose you meant quantitative and it's just a typo
  - wvenable 2mo ago
    These bad outcomes aren't coming. Maybe we as customers don't like it but it doesn't mean the companies are suffering for it. For example, McDonald's reported a full-year 2025 net income (profit) of $8.563 billion, an increase from the $8.223 billion reported in 2024.
    - lkey 2mo ago
      Spirit of Capital Accumulation be praised! May 'annual profit' continue to be the only measure that has mattered, does matter, or will ever matter to those that bask in the radiance of perpetual earning growth!
      - wvenable 2mo ago
        The large multi-national corporation known as "McDonald's" should care about its family, friends, and personal fulfillment instead?
        valleyer 2mo ago
        Yes. The people that make up that corporation should care about their fellow man (family, friends) and should take pride in making good things (personal fulfillment). We are allowed to pierce the corporate veil here.
        wvenable 2mo ago
        Who say's they don't? How does this compare to what you do for a living?
        johnnyanmac 2mo ago
        >Who say's they don't? Their workers, customers, and probably some local governments. They might even say it themselves at times. > How does this compare to what you do for a living? I make video games. There's always some sausage but I like to think I'm helping to bring joy and spark creativity, not simply make a billionaire richer. Given my lack of full time work, I'm at least sure these last few years I'm not doing the latter directly.
- xorcist 2mo ago
  > we abstract away everything about that thing that is not quantifiable It's worse, we simply abstract away everything else, including innumerable things that are quantifiable.
- impendia 2mo ago
  Once I quit my internet service, and someone representing the internet provider called me and asked if I'd agree to participate in an exit survey. Sure, I said. "On a scale of 1 to 10, how satisfied were you with..." "Umm, can I just tell you why I cancelled my service, as if you and I were both human beings?" "I'm sorry, I have to follow this script exactly." So I apologized to the guy and hung up.
  - autoexec 2mo ago
    In fairness that was a survey you agreed to take. You don't usually get to dictate the format or the questions.
    - wolvoleo 2mo ago
      True but you can always withdraw consent
yuck39 2mo ago
Right, but those short term insights can deliver short term value, often lots of it. That value can then be redirected into an index fund and generate real long term returns. There is no financial incentive for QSR execs to look past the next fiscal year, or even quarter when liquidating customer loyalty is so lucrative.
jancsika 2mo ago
I'm quite certain every McDonald's franchise knows how to hire high schoolers and serve up a bunch of smashburgers to instantly become the busiest franchise in the state. The problem isn't an ability to understand long term signals. The problem is that if a franchisee tried to generate that signal corporate would filter them right out of their franchise.
- insane_dreamer 2mo ago
  aren't they independently owned? so if they wanted to offer a superior service, couldn't they do so? I thought franchise rules were a _threshold_ not a _ceiling_.
dwb 2mo ago
Absolutely. > it takes a lot of work for a number to mean anything and we largely aren’t doing it https://desystemize.substack.com/p/desystemize-1 https://desystemize.substack.com/p/desystemize-1

by hliyan 2mo ago

geye1234 2mo ago

> The problem with data driven decision making is that data is numeric, and the act of counting is necessarily an act of approximation, by which we erase the difference between objects or events in order to bucket them into a category so that they can be counted. Yes, this is exactly right. To put it another way: When we quantify something, we abstract away everything about that thing that is not quantifiable. So our thinking is only about a tiny aspect of that thing's existence.

sseagull 2mo ago
Everyone quotes Goodhart's law, but I think the McNamara fallacy is even more important nowadays. It should be read aloud to every CEO every day. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McNamara_fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McNamara_fallacy TLDR: Making a decision based on only qualitative data, and therefore ignoring qualitative information and observations, can lead to bad outcomes. Not everything that is important can be easily measured.
- waldarbeiter 2mo ago
  > Making a decision based on only qualitative data I suppose you meant quantitative and it's just a typo
- wvenable 2mo ago
  These bad outcomes aren't coming. Maybe we as customers don't like it but it doesn't mean the companies are suffering for it. For example, McDonald's reported a full-year 2025 net income (profit) of $8.563 billion, an increase from the $8.223 billion reported in 2024.
  - lkey 2mo ago
    Spirit of Capital Accumulation be praised! May 'annual profit' continue to be the only measure that has mattered, does matter, or will ever matter to those that bask in the radiance of perpetual earning growth!
    - wvenable 2mo ago
      The large multi-national corporation known as "McDonald's" should care about its family, friends, and personal fulfillment instead?
      - valleyer 2mo ago
        Yes. The people that make up that corporation should care about their fellow man (family, friends) and should take pride in making good things (personal fulfillment). We are allowed to pierce the corporate veil here.
        wvenable 2mo ago
        Who say's they don't? How does this compare to what you do for a living?
        johnnyanmac 2mo ago
        >Who say's they don't? Their workers, customers, and probably some local governments. They might even say it themselves at times. > How does this compare to what you do for a living? I make video games. There's always some sausage but I like to think I'm helping to bring joy and spark creativity, not simply make a billionaire richer. Given my lack of full time work, I'm at least sure these last few years I'm not doing the latter directly.
xorcist 2mo ago
> we abstract away everything about that thing that is not quantifiable It's worse, we simply abstract away everything else, including innumerable things that are quantifiable.
impendia 2mo ago
Once I quit my internet service, and someone representing the internet provider called me and asked if I'd agree to participate in an exit survey. Sure, I said. "On a scale of 1 to 10, how satisfied were you with..." "Umm, can I just tell you why I cancelled my service, as if you and I were both human beings?" "I'm sorry, I have to follow this script exactly." So I apologized to the guy and hung up.
- autoexec 2mo ago
  In fairness that was a survey you agreed to take. You don't usually get to dictate the format or the questions.
  - wolvoleo 2mo ago
    True but you can always withdraw consent

yuck39 2mo ago

Right, but those short term insights can deliver short term value, often lots of it. That value can then be redirected into an index fund and generate real long term returns. There is no financial incentive for QSR execs to look past the next fiscal year, or even quarter when liquidating customer loyalty is so lucrative.

jancsika 2mo ago

I'm quite certain every McDonald's franchise knows how to hire high schoolers and serve up a bunch of smashburgers to instantly become the busiest franchise in the state. The problem isn't an ability to understand long term signals. The problem is that if a franchisee tried to generate that signal corporate would filter them right out of their franchise.

insane_dreamer 2mo ago
aren't they independently owned? so if they wanted to offer a superior service, couldn't they do so? I thought franchise rules were a _threshold_ not a _ceiling_.

dwb 2mo ago

Absolutely. > it takes a lot of work for a number to mean anything and we largely aren’t doing it https://desystemize.substack.com/p/desystemize-1 https://desystemize.substack.com/p/desystemize-1