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At the current birthrate/deathrate, Japan's population will be 60 million by 2100. That's the same population as in the 1920s. So the same population but with a

At the current birthrate/deathrate, Japan's population will be 60 million by 2100. That's the same population as in the 1920s. So the same population but with almost 180 years of technologic and productivity advances? I think most people would like that. Tokyo literally employees people to shove commuters into rush-hour trains. Who wouldn't want to live in a Tokyo with the same infrastructure but with 40% fewer people using it? Sounds pretty good to me.

kklimonda 14y ago
It's not about the number of people, but the age distribution. In 2100 half of the Japanese may be over 65 years old, and it definitely wasn't the case in 1920.
- hudibras 14y ago
  The per-capita productivity growth rate in Japan the last twenty years has been around 1%/year (down from the 4-5% of the 1970-1990 era). At that rate, the average worker in Japan will be 2.4 times as productive in 2100 than today. In the long run, productivity growth and technological changes will dwarf demographics. I'm not talking huge Mr. Fusion-style breakthroughs, just small improvements that we all see every day. The Radio Shack catalog from 1982 that was posted here a few days ago is a great example. The improvements since then happened so gradually that we don't even notice them until we look back 30 years.
altcognito 14y ago
As someone who lives in the Detroit area, I find your comments amusing. In fairness, comparing Detroit to Tokyo is like comparing night and day. This isn't to say there wouldn't be adjustment issues though.
- hudibras 14y ago
  If by "Detroit area" you mean the Detroit metropolitan area, it's only lost 3% of its population between the last two censuses, not exactly a huge exodus. Around 15,000 net loss each year out of 4M+. If you mean just the city of Detroit, then the comparison with rural Japan is not too far off: young people moving away from their homes because there are no jobs, leaving behind their parents and grandparents. Detroit is the rural Japanese fishing village with 1 grade-school kid in this analogy.

kklimonda 14y ago

It's not about the number of people, but the age distribution. In 2100 half of the Japanese may be over 65 years old, and it definitely wasn't the case in 1920.

hudibras 14y ago
The per-capita productivity growth rate in Japan the last twenty years has been around 1%/year (down from the 4-5% of the 1970-1990 era). At that rate, the average worker in Japan will be 2.4 times as productive in 2100 than today. In the long run, productivity growth and technological changes will dwarf demographics. I'm not talking huge Mr. Fusion-style breakthroughs, just small improvements that we all see every day. The Radio Shack catalog from 1982 that was posted here a few days ago is a great example. The improvements since then happened so gradually that we don't even notice them until we look back 30 years.

altcognito 14y ago

As someone who lives in the Detroit area, I find your comments amusing. In fairness, comparing Detroit to Tokyo is like comparing night and day. This isn't to say there wouldn't be adjustment issues though.

hudibras 14y ago
If by "Detroit area" you mean the Detroit metropolitan area, it's only lost 3% of its population between the last two censuses, not exactly a huge exodus. Around 15,000 net loss each year out of 4M+. If you mean just the city of Detroit, then the comparison with rural Japan is not too far off: young people moving away from their homes because there are no jobs, leaving behind their parents and grandparents. Detroit is the rural Japanese fishing village with 1 grade-school kid in this analogy.