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But China is already in decline before reaching this ascendancy. I think new models will result in new structures, not just a switch from the US to China.

toomuchtodo 2mo ago
China's population is declining while building and operating the largest fleet of manufacturing robotics in the world. The US population is not declining as quickly while having limited capability to do anything. A recent example is $500M of taxpayer dollars spent on a munition manufacturing facility that did not build a single munition. The US has coasted just about as far as it can go on it's exorbitant privilege while failing to invest in the future. TLDR China builds, and will continue to build long into the future, the US prospers (for now) from financialization but cannot build, nor has the will to attempt to. China Makes AI-powered Robots Core of National Strategy: China´s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) marks pivot to innovation - https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/china-makes-ai-powered-robots-core-of-national-strategy https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/china-makes-ai-power... > Frankfurt, May 05, 2026 — China has launched its 15th Five-Year Plan by placing robotics at the heart of its modern industrial system. The aim is to pivot its AI research towards physical applications with robots as main drivers for economic growth. This is a next step in the country´s strong automation development: China´s manufacturing industry already has an operational stock of around 2 million units — approximately 4.5 times more than the global no. 2, Japan. 54% of annual industrial robots installed worldwide were deployed in China. This is according to the World Robotics 2025 Report, presented by the International Federation of Robotics (IFR). General Dynamics Failed to Build Artillery Shells for the Army - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49281711 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49281711 - August 2026 Wikipedia: Exorbitant privilege - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exorbitant_privilege https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exorbitant_privilege
- Danox 2mo ago
  That sounds like a wish? China has 1.3 billion people in an area the size of 1/3 of the United States (basically the area from the Atlantic Ocean to the Mississippi river Florida to Maine). Imagine if the United States had 1.3 billion people just in that area with the rest of the country being the equivalent of the Tibetan Plateau). One could argue that you would need/want to have fewer people not more.
  - toomuchtodo 2mo ago
    I am arguing that population is not a component of success criteria, but steady state manufacturing capacity is. China has it, the US doesn't, China continues to cultivate and prioritize it, the US doesn't. If I want to build something of high value at scale, am I going to do it in the US or China? The answer to that remains clear, I'm on the next flight to Shenzhen. For example, China can build ~20M EVs a year, the US ~1-3M per year, as of this comment. Ember Energy: China Cleantech Exports Data Explorer - https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-exports-data-explorer/ https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-exports-data-e... (updated monthly) > As the world’s largest manufacturer of clean technologies, data on China’s cleantech exports provide an important early insight into the pace and scale of the energy transition. In 2024, China produced around 80% of the world’s solar PV modules and battery cells, and 70% of electric vehicles.
PowerElectronix 2mo ago
A multipolar world where every pole is a decadent husk or a former (or not even former) great empire. Yeah, sounds about right for this timeline.
petre 2mo ago
Sure. What difference does it make if they're 1.2b or 800m? It's still huge by any metric. The current US administration is definitely clearly working in their favour. That's part of why Detusche Bank is a yuan clearing house now. https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-thucydides https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-thucydides

toomuchtodo 2mo ago

China's population is declining while building and operating the largest fleet of manufacturing robotics in the world. The US population is not declining as quickly while having limited capability to do anything. A recent example is $500M of taxpayer dollars spent on a munition manufacturing facility that did not build a single munition. The US has coasted just about as far as it can go on it's exorbitant privilege while failing to invest in the future. TLDR China builds, and will continue to build long into the future, the US prospers (for now) from financialization but cannot build, nor has the will to attempt to. China Makes AI-powered Robots Core of National Strategy: China´s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) marks pivot to innovation - https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/china-makes-ai-powered-robots-core-of-national-strategy https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/china-makes-ai-power... > Frankfurt, May 05, 2026 — China has launched its 15th Five-Year Plan by placing robotics at the heart of its modern industrial system. The aim is to pivot its AI research towards physical applications with robots as main drivers for economic growth. This is a next step in the country´s strong automation development: China´s manufacturing industry already has an operational stock of around 2 million units — approximately 4.5 times more than the global no. 2, Japan. 54% of annual industrial robots installed worldwide were deployed in China. This is according to the World Robotics 2025 Report, presented by the International Federation of Robotics (IFR). General Dynamics Failed to Build Artillery Shells for the Army - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49281711 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49281711 - August 2026 Wikipedia: Exorbitant privilege - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exorbitant_privilege https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exorbitant_privilege

Danox 2mo ago
That sounds like a wish? China has 1.3 billion people in an area the size of 1/3 of the United States (basically the area from the Atlantic Ocean to the Mississippi river Florida to Maine). Imagine if the United States had 1.3 billion people just in that area with the rest of the country being the equivalent of the Tibetan Plateau). One could argue that you would need/want to have fewer people not more.
- toomuchtodo 2mo ago
  I am arguing that population is not a component of success criteria, but steady state manufacturing capacity is. China has it, the US doesn't, China continues to cultivate and prioritize it, the US doesn't. If I want to build something of high value at scale, am I going to do it in the US or China? The answer to that remains clear, I'm on the next flight to Shenzhen. For example, China can build ~20M EVs a year, the US ~1-3M per year, as of this comment. Ember Energy: China Cleantech Exports Data Explorer - https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-exports-data-explorer/ https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-exports-data-e... (updated monthly) > As the world’s largest manufacturer of clean technologies, data on China’s cleantech exports provide an important early insight into the pace and scale of the energy transition. In 2024, China produced around 80% of the world’s solar PV modules and battery cells, and 70% of electric vehicles.

PowerElectronix 2mo ago

A multipolar world where every pole is a decadent husk or a former (or not even former) great empire. Yeah, sounds about right for this timeline.

petre 2mo ago

Sure. What difference does it make if they're 1.2b or 800m? It's still huge by any metric. The current US administration is definitely clearly working in their favour. That's part of why Detusche Bank is a yuan clearing house now. https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-thucydides https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-thucydides