3 ms·

But, how much of the extracted oil becomes ICE fuel? Because other transports cannot be converted that quick (air, sea...) and most if not all petrochemical ind

by soco 2mo ago

But, how much of the extracted oil becomes ICE fuel? Because other transports cannot be converted that quick (air, sea...) and most if not all petrochemical industries will still need to exist even if all cars drive electric. So how big will be the effect of crashing fuel demand?

Symbiote 2mo ago
25% of oil production is for cars 16% for trucks and buses 7% for aviation 4% for shipping 2% for rail and domestic waterways 25% + a chunk of the 16% (city buses, shorter distance or smaller trucks, etc) is a good amount. https://www.statista.com/statistics/307194/top-oil-consuming-sectors-worldwide/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/307194/top-oil-consuming...
- soco 2mo ago
  You mean a good amount of the 46% consumed by road transports. So my napkin says, when we all switch to driving EV the oil demand will drop by 15%. It's something for sure, but not overly dramatic (to me).
  - realityking 2mo ago
    Trucks and buses are starting to be electrified as well. Some boating as well but that‘s a rounding error.
  - toomuchtodo 2mo ago
    Every 24 months of EV production in China destroys 1 million barrels a day of global oil demand, as of this comment, at current rates of EV production. We should expect these rates of production will continue to increase. Total annual light vehicle sales are ~90M units. Globally, over 1-in-5 (22%) of new cars sold were electric in 2024. This share was 92% in Norway, and in China, it was almost 50%. In 2025, it was 1-in-4 (25%). The world has 20-30M units/year of EV manufacturing capacity, as of this comment. Light vehicles and heavy vehicles are solved for with battery electric, I argue, based on all available data. Aviation and petrochemical use cases are unlikely to disappear in our lifetimes, but that is a small slice of today's oil demand (lets call it ~15-20% for the sake of argument), and will be the remainder as renewables and batteries eat global energy demand. ~40% of marine shipping disappears when you're not moving energy around the world, the remaining half can burn renewable energy produced ammonia or methanol for fuel. Like bankruptcy, the change happens slowly, and then all of a sudden. China now has more power than OPEC because of the facts in this comment and their vast strategic petroleum reserves. It is understandable to say "this flywheel is spinning slowly" before it is spinning very fast, while you're watching it spool. How China became the world’s great oil power - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49238158 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49238158 - August 2026 Laos went 100% electric vehicles overnight with a drastic approach [Bans Fossil-Fuel Car Imports] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49040819 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49040819 - July 2026 Electric Vehicle Sales Boom as Ethiopia Bans Fossil-Fuel Car Imports - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47068567 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47068567 - February 2026 Norway EV sales and related data - https://robbieandrew.github.io/EV/ https://robbieandrew.github.io/EV/ Our World In Data: Tracking global data on electric vehicles - https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales Global oil price stuck in triple digits. Goldman Sachs says it may stay there for years - https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/20/energy/oil-gas-prices-intl-hnk https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/20/energy/oil-gas-prices-intl-hn... - March 20th, 2026 Electric Cars Pass a Crucial Tipping Point in 23 Countries - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-28/electric-cars-pass-a-crucial-tipping-point-in-23-countries https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-28/electric-... | https://archive.today/e8XSt https://archive.today/e8XSt - August 27th, 2023 Almost 40% Of All Ship Cargoes Are Oil, Coal And Gas - https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2022/01/12/almost-40-of-all-ship-cargoes-are-oil-coal-and-gas/ https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2022/01/12/almost-40-... - January 12th, 2022 https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2019_en.pdf https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2019_en...
- throwaway473825 2mo ago
  There's no reason to separate cars from trucks and buses. Everything is getting electrified. In jurisdictions where Buy America Act doesn't apply (i.e. the world outside the US), electric buses are already the default. Moreover, it takes a lot of oil to refine and transport oil. If there's no demand for road transport, then the corresponding demand for refining and transport will disappear as well. Finally, coal is already replacing oil in the chemical industry. Not because it's cleaner, but because it's cheaper and more available.
  - Symbiote 2mo ago
    I separated cars and heavy vehicles because that's what the GP post asked about. Copenhagen, where I live, has had a fully electric public bus fleet since 4 months ago when the last two bus lines were converted. The harbour ferries are also electric, and obviously the trains and metro. Garbage trucks and delivery trucks (e.g. delivering beer) are increasingly electric.
- SoftTalker 2mo ago
  About 6% is for plastics. That isn't going away anytime soon, but it also doesn't release much carbon, it's mostly just changing form from liquid to solid.
FpUser 2mo ago
I would add energy generation to ICE fuel. This is about 84-86% of total I believe
- seanp2k2 2mo ago
  This, and it's murky because a good chunk of that used directly by ICE will move over to power generation to power EVs -- it's not as if we're anywhere close to 100% renewable power even just for EVs here. There's a good EIA graph about halfway down on https://www.weforum.org/stories/climate-action/us-fossil-fuel-consumption-eia/ https://www.weforum.org/stories/climate-action/us-fossil-fue... that breaks it down.
  - tialaramex 2mo ago
    For both transport and home heating you need to remember that the electricity is hugely more efficient in these roles. So not only is some of that electricity from a renewable source, you also need much much less electricity than you did liquid fuel in the first place because it was more efficient.

by soco 2mo ago

Symbiote 2mo ago

25% of oil production is for cars 16% for trucks and buses 7% for aviation 4% for shipping 2% for rail and domestic waterways 25% + a chunk of the 16% (city buses, shorter distance or smaller trucks, etc) is a good amount. https://www.statista.com/statistics/307194/top-oil-consuming-sectors-worldwide/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/307194/top-oil-consuming...

soco 2mo ago
You mean a good amount of the 46% consumed by road transports. So my napkin says, when we all switch to driving EV the oil demand will drop by 15%. It's something for sure, but not overly dramatic (to me).
- realityking 2mo ago
  Trucks and buses are starting to be electrified as well. Some boating as well but that‘s a rounding error.
- toomuchtodo 2mo ago
  Every 24 months of EV production in China destroys 1 million barrels a day of global oil demand, as of this comment, at current rates of EV production. We should expect these rates of production will continue to increase. Total annual light vehicle sales are ~90M units. Globally, over 1-in-5 (22%) of new cars sold were electric in 2024. This share was 92% in Norway, and in China, it was almost 50%. In 2025, it was 1-in-4 (25%). The world has 20-30M units/year of EV manufacturing capacity, as of this comment. Light vehicles and heavy vehicles are solved for with battery electric, I argue, based on all available data. Aviation and petrochemical use cases are unlikely to disappear in our lifetimes, but that is a small slice of today's oil demand (lets call it ~15-20% for the sake of argument), and will be the remainder as renewables and batteries eat global energy demand. ~40% of marine shipping disappears when you're not moving energy around the world, the remaining half can burn renewable energy produced ammonia or methanol for fuel. Like bankruptcy, the change happens slowly, and then all of a sudden. China now has more power than OPEC because of the facts in this comment and their vast strategic petroleum reserves. It is understandable to say "this flywheel is spinning slowly" before it is spinning very fast, while you're watching it spool. How China became the world’s great oil power - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49238158 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49238158 - August 2026 Laos went 100% electric vehicles overnight with a drastic approach [Bans Fossil-Fuel Car Imports] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49040819 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49040819 - July 2026 Electric Vehicle Sales Boom as Ethiopia Bans Fossil-Fuel Car Imports - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47068567 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47068567 - February 2026 Norway EV sales and related data - https://robbieandrew.github.io/EV/ https://robbieandrew.github.io/EV/ Our World In Data: Tracking global data on electric vehicles - https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales Global oil price stuck in triple digits. Goldman Sachs says it may stay there for years - https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/20/energy/oil-gas-prices-intl-hnk https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/20/energy/oil-gas-prices-intl-hn... - March 20th, 2026 Electric Cars Pass a Crucial Tipping Point in 23 Countries - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-28/electric-cars-pass-a-crucial-tipping-point-in-23-countries https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-28/electric-... | https://archive.today/e8XSt https://archive.today/e8XSt - August 27th, 2023 Almost 40% Of All Ship Cargoes Are Oil, Coal And Gas - https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2022/01/12/almost-40-of-all-ship-cargoes-are-oil-coal-and-gas/ https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2022/01/12/almost-40-... - January 12th, 2022 https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2019_en.pdf https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2019_en...
throwaway473825 2mo ago
There's no reason to separate cars from trucks and buses. Everything is getting electrified. In jurisdictions where Buy America Act doesn't apply (i.e. the world outside the US), electric buses are already the default. Moreover, it takes a lot of oil to refine and transport oil. If there's no demand for road transport, then the corresponding demand for refining and transport will disappear as well. Finally, coal is already replacing oil in the chemical industry. Not because it's cleaner, but because it's cheaper and more available.
- Symbiote 2mo ago
  I separated cars and heavy vehicles because that's what the GP post asked about. Copenhagen, where I live, has had a fully electric public bus fleet since 4 months ago when the last two bus lines were converted. The harbour ferries are also electric, and obviously the trains and metro. Garbage trucks and delivery trucks (e.g. delivering beer) are increasingly electric.
SoftTalker 2mo ago
About 6% is for plastics. That isn't going away anytime soon, but it also doesn't release much carbon, it's mostly just changing form from liquid to solid.

FpUser 2mo ago

I would add energy generation to ICE fuel. This is about 84-86% of total I believe

seanp2k2 2mo ago
This, and it's murky because a good chunk of that used directly by ICE will move over to power generation to power EVs -- it's not as if we're anywhere close to 100% renewable power even just for EVs here. There's a good EIA graph about halfway down on https://www.weforum.org/stories/climate-action/us-fossil-fuel-consumption-eia/ https://www.weforum.org/stories/climate-action/us-fossil-fue... that breaks it down.
- tialaramex 2mo ago
  For both transport and home heating you need to remember that the electricity is hugely more efficient in these roles. So not only is some of that electricity from a renewable source, you also need much much less electricity than you did liquid fuel in the first place because it was more efficient.