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> China with [EVs|Solar|BESS|Turbines] will replace all of the fossil fuel countries (US, middle-east, Russia) I dont agree with china having the same position

by samrus 2mo ago

> China with [EVs|Solar|BESS|Turbines] will replace all of the fossil fuel countries (US, middle-east, Russia) I dont agree with china having the same position as the FF exporters. Simply because with renewables, you export the means to produce energy rather than the energy itself. So in terms of monetary value, china will be selling alot less panels than the FF countries sell oil. And other countries can also manufactor renewables tech themselves, while with oil they couldnt materialize it under their feet Basically i think the paradigm of the energy trade being cornered for politcal controll wont exost with renewables. Renewables are decentralized and so not controllable

rzerowan 2mo ago
ACtually no , even with the export of primary goods that go into the manufactue of renewables like solar the price differential still favours China. A recent example is the boom of local solar manufacture in India whil relies on solar modules imported from china.The assembled panes are still 2X the price of a similar fullly aseembled one from China. And not due too subsidies of labour - a lot of the value chain is highly automated and densely colocated diffrerent from other industrail setups where complimentary industries are geographically separeted which increase final costt by adding unreliable transport and delays into the mix. So at scale and with high volume will continue to be the dominated by China , wear and tear even with renewables will continue to favour the first mover as tech evolves over time.The solar modules/batteries of 10-15 years ago are not the same effficency as those of today.
- yorwba 2mo ago
  China indeed makes very cheap solar panels, inverters and batteries, but that just means that they take up a smaller share of the cost of a complete installation, which also includes labor and additional hardware for the mounting system. So solar panels doubling in price won't double the cost of new solar capacity, let alone the cost of electricity from existing installations. That reduces the political leverage a lot compared to oil, where a supply disruption affects prices on fairly short time scales.
  - rzerowan 2mo ago
    Yep exactly , also they are perfectly content to keep selling at the razor thin margins for commodities rather than attach political costs.Unless and only when their red lines are touch see Lithuania(hosting a Taiwan quasi consulate) and recently Panama(after rescinding the port concessions and confisicating the operations).
- samrus 2mo ago
  Im sure theirs still market dominance to be had. But it wont be at the level that the US has with oil. This isnt just market dominance, its complete economic dominance. The US can controll all money because oil is sold in dollars. That wont be true for solar panels, simply because a country couldnt afford to go a week without oil imports, but a country could go years without solar panel imports, given how existing panels will still work and new panels can be manufactored domestically if needed (even if they are expensive). You cant jist manufactor oil, you meed to buy it
Danox 2mo ago
China has shown the willingness to develop and use any source of energy. The same cannot be said for the United States. China is now the world leading developer of Thorium Reactors.
- SoftTalker 2mo ago
  Innovator's Dilemma for the US. Any alternatives to fossil fuels impact the big energy companies, who want to preserve their cash cows.
  - throwaway27727 2mo ago
    From one of the GP comments, it's about preserving the petrodollar and reserve currency status as a whole. That's a way wider scope than a few companies. P
    - samrus 2mo ago
      Theyre holding on for dear life but its futile i think. Renewables will be the future and they wont have that political leverage attached. Geopolitics is about to become more equitable. Itll be interesting to see what that looks like. Idk if itll more or less peaceful. I'd bet less honestly
- UltraSane 2mo ago
  While the Trump administration is anti wind and solar the actual market has installed a lot of wind and solar in the US.
  - Hikikomori 2mo ago
    And china installed more solar last year than the US has in total.
leonidasrup 2mo ago
Coal in China has many applications beyond simply burning it to produce electricity. Coal 2025 report "China consumes 30% more coal than the rest of the world put together. It also produces more coal than all other countries combined, and it is the world’s largest importer. This dominance by a single country makes global coal markets very dependent on developments in China, notably those related to economic growth, government policies, energy markets, weather conditions and dynamics in the Chinese domestic coal sector." https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2025/executive-summary https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2025/executive-summary In terms of reducing oil consumption China is pursuing two strategies: 1. Electrification of transport 2. Producing synthetic gasoline/diesel/chemicals from coal. "The sector last year turned 276 million tons of coal - equivalent to almost a year of European coal use - into chemicals, oil and gas, according to the China National Petroleum and Chemical Planning Institute." https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/chinese-alchemy-cheap-fuel-powers-coal-to-gas-chemicals-boom-2025-09-04/ https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/chines... "China’s power sector is undergoing a visible transformation. Electricity demand rose by 5% between 2024 and 2025, reaching 10,368 TWh, yet coal-fired generation declined by 113 TWh to 6,294 TWh in a year, reducing its share in the power mix. The entire increment in electricity demand was absorbed by nuclear and renewable sources, whose combined output rose by 617 TWh. On paper, this reflects a decisive shift away from coal and toward low-carbon energy. In practice, however, coal is not disappearing from China’s industry – it is being redirected." "Coal-to-liquids (CTL) and coal-to-chemicals (CTC) technologies provide the missing link. Using Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, coal can be converted into synthetic liquid fuels such as diesel, gasoline, and naphtha, as well as petrochemical feedstocks including olefins for plastics production. China and South Africa are the only countries operating CTL and CTC at an industrial scale. China alone consumes hundreds of millions of tonnes of coal annually (380 million tonnes as reported by the IEA) for chemical and synthetic fuel production. It is important to note that the largest part of this demand goes into the CTC industry. China has effectively replaced gas as its main feedstock for ammonia and methanol production with raw coal, to the extent that roughly 80% of these chemicals’ output is now fed by coal." https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/Chinas-Renewable-Boom-Masks-a-Quiet-Coal-to-Liquids-Expansion.html https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/Chinas-Renewable-Boom-Masks...
- 2mo ago
thelastgallon 2mo ago
But you can get soft power by being humanitarian. China delivers a second donation of 5,000 photovoltaic systems to Cuba: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qrvjyZ76Z5w https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qrvjyZ76Z5w Panels cost nothing, the balance of system costs and labor will be borne by the recipient. People will remember for 25 years.
- samrus 2mo ago
  People will remember but they wont submit. The US got countries to submit to them becuase of the economic sanctions made possible by cornering the energy trade. I dont think we'll see that again given renewables becoming the meta In yiur example, cuba will remember china's help, but china will have to keep being nice to keep that loyalty, which means conprimising with cuba rather that forcing it like the US could do

by samrus 2mo ago

rzerowan 2mo ago

ACtually no , even with the export of primary goods that go into the manufactue of renewables like solar the price differential still favours China. A recent example is the boom of local solar manufacture in India whil relies on solar modules imported from china.The assembled panes are still 2X the price of a similar fullly aseembled one from China. And not due too subsidies of labour - a lot of the value chain is highly automated and densely colocated diffrerent from other industrail setups where complimentary industries are geographically separeted which increase final costt by adding unreliable transport and delays into the mix. So at scale and with high volume will continue to be the dominated by China , wear and tear even with renewables will continue to favour the first mover as tech evolves over time.The solar modules/batteries of 10-15 years ago are not the same effficency as those of today.

yorwba 2mo ago
China indeed makes very cheap solar panels, inverters and batteries, but that just means that they take up a smaller share of the cost of a complete installation, which also includes labor and additional hardware for the mounting system. So solar panels doubling in price won't double the cost of new solar capacity, let alone the cost of electricity from existing installations. That reduces the political leverage a lot compared to oil, where a supply disruption affects prices on fairly short time scales.
- rzerowan 2mo ago
  Yep exactly , also they are perfectly content to keep selling at the razor thin margins for commodities rather than attach political costs.Unless and only when their red lines are touch see Lithuania(hosting a Taiwan quasi consulate) and recently Panama(after rescinding the port concessions and confisicating the operations).
samrus 2mo ago
Im sure theirs still market dominance to be had. But it wont be at the level that the US has with oil. This isnt just market dominance, its complete economic dominance. The US can controll all money because oil is sold in dollars. That wont be true for solar panels, simply because a country couldnt afford to go a week without oil imports, but a country could go years without solar panel imports, given how existing panels will still work and new panels can be manufactored domestically if needed (even if they are expensive). You cant jist manufactor oil, you meed to buy it

Danox 2mo ago

China has shown the willingness to develop and use any source of energy. The same cannot be said for the United States. China is now the world leading developer of Thorium Reactors.

SoftTalker 2mo ago
Innovator's Dilemma for the US. Any alternatives to fossil fuels impact the big energy companies, who want to preserve their cash cows.
- throwaway27727 2mo ago
  From one of the GP comments, it's about preserving the petrodollar and reserve currency status as a whole. That's a way wider scope than a few companies. P
  - samrus 2mo ago
    Theyre holding on for dear life but its futile i think. Renewables will be the future and they wont have that political leverage attached. Geopolitics is about to become more equitable. Itll be interesting to see what that looks like. Idk if itll more or less peaceful. I'd bet less honestly
UltraSane 2mo ago
While the Trump administration is anti wind and solar the actual market has installed a lot of wind and solar in the US.
- Hikikomori 2mo ago
  And china installed more solar last year than the US has in total.

leonidasrup 2mo ago

Coal in China has many applications beyond simply burning it to produce electricity. Coal 2025 report "China consumes 30% more coal than the rest of the world put together. It also produces more coal than all other countries combined, and it is the world’s largest importer. This dominance by a single country makes global coal markets very dependent on developments in China, notably those related to economic growth, government policies, energy markets, weather conditions and dynamics in the Chinese domestic coal sector." https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2025/executive-summary https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2025/executive-summary In terms of reducing oil consumption China is pursuing two strategies: 1. Electrification of transport 2. Producing synthetic gasoline/diesel/chemicals from coal. "The sector last year turned 276 million tons of coal - equivalent to almost a year of European coal use - into chemicals, oil and gas, according to the China National Petroleum and Chemical Planning Institute." https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/chinese-alchemy-cheap-fuel-powers-coal-to-gas-chemicals-boom-2025-09-04/ https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/chines... "China’s power sector is undergoing a visible transformation. Electricity demand rose by 5% between 2024 and 2025, reaching 10,368 TWh, yet coal-fired generation declined by 113 TWh to 6,294 TWh in a year, reducing its share in the power mix. The entire increment in electricity demand was absorbed by nuclear and renewable sources, whose combined output rose by 617 TWh. On paper, this reflects a decisive shift away from coal and toward low-carbon energy. In practice, however, coal is not disappearing from China’s industry – it is being redirected." "Coal-to-liquids (CTL) and coal-to-chemicals (CTC) technologies provide the missing link. Using Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, coal can be converted into synthetic liquid fuels such as diesel, gasoline, and naphtha, as well as petrochemical feedstocks including olefins for plastics production. China and South Africa are the only countries operating CTL and CTC at an industrial scale. China alone consumes hundreds of millions of tonnes of coal annually (380 million tonnes as reported by the IEA) for chemical and synthetic fuel production. It is important to note that the largest part of this demand goes into the CTC industry. China has effectively replaced gas as its main feedstock for ammonia and methanol production with raw coal, to the extent that roughly 80% of these chemicals’ output is now fed by coal." https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/Chinas-Renewable-Boom-Masks-a-Quiet-Coal-to-Liquids-Expansion.html https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/Chinas-Renewable-Boom-Masks...

2mo ago

thelastgallon 2mo ago

But you can get soft power by being humanitarian. China delivers a second donation of 5,000 photovoltaic systems to Cuba: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qrvjyZ76Z5w https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qrvjyZ76Z5w Panels cost nothing, the balance of system costs and labor will be borne by the recipient. People will remember for 25 years.

samrus 2mo ago
People will remember but they wont submit. The US got countries to submit to them becuase of the economic sanctions made possible by cornering the energy trade. I dont think we'll see that again given renewables becoming the meta In yiur example, cuba will remember china's help, but china will have to keep being nice to keep that loyalty, which means conprimising with cuba rather that forcing it like the US could do