3 ms·
Agreed, but my suspicion is tied to the timing. Catching up eventually is to be expected. Having similar jumps in capability ready at the same time is odd.
by causal 2mo ago
Agreed, but my suspicion is tied to the timing. Catching up eventually is to be expected. Having similar jumps in capability ready at the same time is odd.
- dash2 2mo agoMaybe "readiness" is quite a flexible category? You're mid-training for your next model; a rival releases something; you clear the boards and release the model without completing the training run?
- causal 2mo agoTouche, aborted training runs probably do happen often. Closed model providers have zero incentive to announce a new model with less-than-best benchmarks.
- ben_w 2mo agoGradual improvements in performance can look like jumps, when you go over critical thresholds. Combustion engines improved gradually, each year. One year they got better than horses.
- martinald 2mo agoThere's also a bit of selection bias going on here because we forget about labs that don't have a jump and just focus on the ones that do. Notably Google is definitely not having that capability jump.