This is a framing that obscures rather than illuminating. Perhaps in this specific case, the prediction market bet acts as insurance (and even then, only for th

This is a framing that obscures rather than illuminating. Perhaps in this specific case, the prediction market bet acts as insurance (and even then, only for those market participants who are actual Cloudflare customers; many others are simply taking a bet). But the prediction market allows bets of many other kinds, many of which do not act as insurance against anything. Sports bets are the most obvious, but also election bets, bets on wars, bets on celebrities' lives, bets on show durations, bets on Jesus returning, bets on aliens existing - none of these can be construed as insurance. When the vast majority of actual bets traded on this betting market can not be construed as insurance, you can't defend the market as offering insurance.